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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Lost Thoughts: Season Six, Episode Five: The Lighthouse

I'll break this into three parts: the Flash-Sideways, the Jack-Hurley stuff, and the Claire stuff.

Flash Sideways

The episode begins by showing us a few framed photos of the Shepherd family, revealing that this is a Jack-centric episode, thus furthering the replica lineup of episodes from season one (plane, plane, Kate, Locke, Jack). That means next week should be a Sun episode, and since the episode is titled 'Sundown' I think that's pretty likely. But more on that later.

Jack prompty removes his shirt, as he does in all Jack-centric episodes, and walks around his house half-nude. Looking in the mirror he notices a scar that seems to confuse him, exactly the way he was confused by the cut on his neck on flight 815. This is the only hint the writers have really given that there's any connection between Timelines A and B.

Jack's mom calls to ask about Christian's missing coffin, and we don't find anything out except that it may be in Berlin. Momma Shepherd can't find Christian's will, so Jack volunteers to head over and look for it. But first, he has to pick his son up from school.

Wait, what?? Jack has a son now?? Of course he does.

So apparently Timeline B Jack got busy in his early twenties and had a son, and then named him after the most famous ‘shepherd’ in history, King David. (Who, like Jack’s son, was also a talented musician.) David positively can’t stand his father and I can’t blame him. Despite Jack’s sometimes good intentions, he would be one heck of an annoying dad. Demanding information all the time, drinking all the time, feeling bad about himself. All the time. Ugh.

Throughout the flash-sideways, Jack struggles with his failures as a father, and desperately wants to sit down and eat pizza with his son. Along the way, we find out that Christian left something to Claire in his will, which will be interesting since Claire is presently in Los Angeles and this will give her and Jack the chance to meet. We also see a couple references to LOST’s favorite literary work, Alice in Wonderland. Jack talks to David about Alice’s two cats, Snowball and Kitty. (Snowball was white. Kitty was black.)

We see some sheet music from a piano piece by Chopin, the same piece that a young Daniel Faraday played in ‘The Variable.” After finding Cristian's will but losing his son in the process, Jack goes over to David’s mother’s house, and while we don’t figure out who she is, my only guess is Juliet. Jack follows the clues to a piano recital, where he finds David and also runs into none other than his Japanese samurai friend from another life.

Dogan doesn’t say anything important but it was pretty cool to see him. So if you’re keeping track at home, we have now seen Ethan, Ben, and Dogan in consecutive weeks, all three of whom should have been on the island in 2004. Who will we see next? Jacob? Richard? A normal version of Rousseau?? The eyepatch guy? Horace? Phil? Roger Linus? The possibilities are endless. But we've GOT to see Juliet.

At the end of the episode, Jack finally realizes that the key to successful parenthood is just good old fasion love, and after confessing his unashamed love for his son, they finally set off to eat that pizza Jack has been thinking about all night. Happy ending for all.

As stupid and pointless as Timeline B is, I’ve decided to just go with the flow and wait for the big surprise moment. It may not be until the season finale, but I’m sure it will be awesome.

The Lighthouse

The on-island storyline begins with Jack and Dogan having an honest conversation, where they tell each other how much they appreciate each other’s honesty. Meanwhile Hurley and Miles play tic-tac-toe and Hurley decides to go in the temple for something to eat. Of course he does.

Hurley sees ghost-Jacob sitting by the dirty pool, and the secret mission begins. It's evident that Jacob is the master of manipulation and he knows it; in fact he seems to know just about everything there is to know about the loveable Losties, including the phrase that has haunted Jack Shepherd since childhood: "You don't have what it takes."

Jorge Garcia does an amazing job of balancing his role as a serious guy with serious issues and the best comedic relief character on the show. He is terrific in this episode. Particularly in the scene where Dogan tells Hurley to buzz off, but Hurley tells him in a totally unsure voice "I'm a candidate, I can do whatever I want." Brilliant.

In case you're wondering what Dogan muttered in Japansese as he walked away, it was something like "You're lucky I have to protect you, because otherwise I'd cut off your head."

Nice.

So Jack and Hurley trek throug the jungle, and along the way the encounter Kate, who finally seems to have given up on chasing Sawyer. She states that now she's going to find Claire. Why Kate just automatically assumes Claire is alive, even though no one has seen her or heard from her in 3 years and she's on a freaky crazy island, is beyond me. But since when did any of Kate's actions make a shred of sense.

J & H keep walking, and they pass the caves from season two, where the audience is reminded of Adam and Eve and once again asks: who are they? Speculation about their identities has been all over the board, but don't worry, I have the answer.

A couple seasons ago, Damon and Carlton (the show's producers) stated that there is a secret anagram hidden in the episode "Not In Portland" that reveals the identities of Adam and Eve.

In that episode, when Carl is being brainwashed in room 23, there is a voice that when played backwards says "Only fools are enslaved by time and space." If you mix those letters around, it says "Bones of Nadlers may lay lost deep in cave." And since Rose and Bernard's last name is Nadler, we have our answer.

Especially because on top of Adam and Eve is a black stone and a white stone. You know, Rose is black, Bernard is white. It makes sense. Case closed.

Before they reach the lighthouse, Jack and Hugo share a quick heart-to-heart about why they returned to the island, and Matthew Fox delievers in a big way, which is a rare LOST moment. He tells Hurley "Because I was broken. And I was stupid enough to think this place could fix me."

Little do you know Jack.

After they walk a few more minutes they stumble upon a huge brick lighthouse which makes all LOST fans ask the question: How the EFF did no one ever see that before? Especially if it's a two second walk from where they used to live? Whatever, this show stopped making sense a long time ago.

Inside the lighthouse we saw one of the coolest LOST scenes ever, which definitely rivaled and maybe even surpassed the cave from the week before. The numbers and the mirrors and the dial ... Of course Jack had to lose his temper and break the magic mirrors with a stick. But we've come to expect nothing less from Jack.

Ghost-Jacob then shows up again and basically tells Hurley that he got exactly the reaction from Jack that he wanted. He also says that "someone very bad" is about to go to the temple (Flocke - in case you're a total nimrod) and he had to get them out of there.

There were a few candidate names and numbers that weren't seen in the cave, most important Kate Austen, number 51. We also saw Burke (Juliet), Rousseau, Faraday, Lewis (Charlotte), Friendly and Price (others), Dawson (Michael), and the ever-important #108 - Wallace.

Who is Wallace?!? I don't have any idea. But his name was crossed out.

Did you notice that Jack's name was written considerably bigger and bolder than the other names? Was that intentional? Is that because Jacob is more invested in Jack than the other candidates? Probably. Does that have anything to do with Christian Shepherd? Was Christian a candidate??

If there's anything major to take away from the Jack-Hurley-Lighthouse action, it's that Jacob is my new favorite character and everything he does is awesome. And that this whole "Candidate" business is more important than we even realized.

Claire's Camp

Maybe the best way to analyze these scenes would be by simply reading the script on paper, because watching Emilie de Ravin try to act is simply too painful and distracting. This was hands-down the worst acting performance in LOST history, closely followed by all the other appearances by Claire in prior seasons. Now I see why they made her disappear for two seasons. Good Lord was she bad. I couldn't even understand what she was saying half the time.

Honestly, they could have found any random girl in a shopping mall, let her memorize lines for 2 hours, messed up her hair and gave her a prop axe, and basically filmed the exact same scene. Poor Jin was stuck there watching that. Dreadful.

Forgetting about all that, we basically saw Claire act the way Rousseau used to - paranoid, delusional, angry. But with a twist of psychopathic. It was revealed at the end of the episode that she has actually been friends with the Nemesis for some time, and seems to be operating under his control. It's safe to say that Claire was his first "recruit."

But when Flocke entered Claire's camp, it made me wonder "What happened to Sawyer?!"

We'll find out soon hopefully.

Other Stuff

There was a poster of the band The Who in David Shepherd's room. They had a song called "Smash the Mirror." He also had a poster of a band called Meat Coat - the band that Charlie was excited to open for when he was a member of Driveshaft.

Sayid and Miles are the only Losties left at the temple. Kate, Sawyer, Jack and Hurley have all snuck away. Man, those others are stupid.

Next week is a Sun/Jin episode which means we'll be seeing plenty of Sun's uninteresting storyline on the island. (Not that her flash-sideways is going to be a thrill either.) If her and Jin don't reunite, I might kill someone.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

LOST: Season Six

RECAP OF THE FIRST FOUR EPISODES

-LA X Part 1
-LA X Part 2
-What Kate Does
-The Substitute

In every season of LOST thus far, the main concept of the season has been revealed in the first moments of the first episode. Season one: plane crash. Season two: the hatch. Season three: the others. Season four: rescue. And season five: time travel.

So what is it for season six? So far I would say it can be summed up as: alternative timelines. To which my response was at the time, and still is: What the heck? Really? All the drama of season five and the explosion and Faraday’s research and the result of everything is … alternative timelines, which no one is even aware of except us the audience. For real?

I’m trying to fight off the disappointment and trust the writers that this is going somewhere, but I have to admit I’m not thrilled through the first four episodes. Granted, there’s a lot of LOST remaining and I like the direction we’re headed in with Smoke-Locke and Jacob and the immanent war. But still, Timeline B has about two more episodes to start making some sense before I start punching innocent puppies.

To summarize the events in Timeline B, we begin on the flight of Oceanic 815 where most things are the same, but there are a few subtle differences: Shannon is gone, Hurley claims to be lucky, and Charlie appears to be suicidal. Whatever. The keys in my mind are these: Desmond appears on the plane (possibly only seen by Jack), Christian Shepherd’s body is not on the plane, and Jack seems to be experiencing some sort of déjà vu and has a weird cut on his neck, similar to the bloody spot on Desmond’s neck from when he was time traveling around in The Constant.

We saw Kate miraculously escape from an armed US Marshall using only a pen and her wits, then hijack a cab, befriend it’s frightened occupant, and then escort said occupant to the hospital and help her give birth to a healthy baby boy. I can’t decide what’s less realistic: a time-traveling, monster-infested island in the Pacific, or Kate Austin’s character. Kate tells Claire she’s innocent. Is she? I don’t know, and I don’t care. I just hope we don’t see any more Kate-centric episodes this season.

Elsewhere in Timeline B, John Locke is still paralyzed, still pathetic, but on a happier note, he’s engaged to Helen Norwood and seemingly on good terms with his father – which begs the question, how did he get paralyzed this time? I also wonder, what led him to Australia to go on a Walkabout, since Matthew Abaddon, who works for Widmore, wouldn’t have been there to nudge him in the Walkabout direction, since we can only assume that Widmore is dead. Since landing in LA, Locke has randomly encountered Jack, then Hurley, then Rose, and then Ben Linus, and he won’t let any of them tell him what he can’t do.

Where is Timeline B going? I assume we’ll see episodes centric on Sayid (who will be happy with Nadia), Sun and Jin (miserable as ever) and Sawyer (conning his way through life), but each with little changes here and there. And of course the super-doctor Jack episode, where we’ll find out why Christian’s body wasn’t on the plane and hope it has some relevance to the island and to Jacob. There may be a Hurley episode (although I’m not sure I can handle seeing his mother again) or a Claire episode or even a Ben episode. Frankly, I don’t care about Timeline B until a connection with Timeline A is established.

And with that, let’s move on to the events of Timeline A, beginning at the foot statue with Jacob’s Enemy, also called Flocke (for Fake Locke), Nemesis, Smokie, Dr. Loophole, Esau, or simply The Monster. Early in the first episode, it was revealed beyond any and all possible doubt that Locke and the Monster and Jacob’s Enemy are all one and the same. Not sure if he is possessing him, or using him, or inhabiting him, or simply the Monster has become him. Whatever word you want to use, doesn’t really matter, the bottom line is Locke=Smoke Monster.

Now there’s a slim, 1% chance that the Monster is actually the good guy and Jacob is actually bad, and that would be a cool twist. But I don’t think that’s the case.

Flocke turns into Smokie, destroys ‘Jacob’s bodyguards,’ including Bram, and is impenetrable to bullets. He then delivers the best line of season six: “Sorry you had to see me like that.” Boom!

Ben is freaking out, Richard is freaking out, and Frank Lapidus stands off to the side and makes sarcastic remarks like “Another day in paradise…” or “Guess we’re in for the ride of our lives.” I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty ready for Frank to meet his end. He’s not a terrible character, but what good is a comic-relief guy if he’s not funny? Nemesis then punches Ricardus in the throat, tells the crowd that he is disappointed in them (weird), and insinuates that Richard was originally a slave on the Black Rock, which I’m sure we’ll see in about 7 or 8 episodes. He then carries him off into the jungle, ties him up, and goes “recruiting.” He picks up Sawyer, chases after a 12 year old blond kid (either young Jacob or old Aaron - or both?) and successfully ‘recruits’ Sawyer through some classic LOST-style manipulation.

How freaking awesome was the cave? Beginning with Jacob’s ladder (Genesis reference anyone?) and the white-black scale (reference to Locke’s famous words from all the way back to early season one), and the names on the wall and the numbers. That scene has to be among the greatest of all “Holy Crap!” moments in LOST history. The numbers! They actually mean something! Not sure what … but apparently they correspond to the characters who have stayed alive, and are “candidates.” Are Jin and Sun linked as one ‘Kwon’ – is that why Jacob told them to always value their love and stay together – or does the fact that there’s only one ‘Kwon’ on the wall mean one of them is about to die. Why wasn’t Kate’s name on the wall? Did we just not see it, or is there something to that? Maybe she’s never been a candidate because Jacob knows that she’s a stupid idiot and a terrible actress.

Maybe the reason Kate and Sun aren't Candidates is because they didn't do what Jacob told them to. Remember he told Kate not to steal again, and he told Sun (the cheating whore) not to ever take her love for granted. Maybe that's why their names weren't on the wall?

Now that Sawyer has agreed to “get off this damn island,” what next? They surely aren’t just going to waltz onto a cargo ship. The ticket off the island is through the temple – at least that’s my thought. The immanent war between Jacob and Smokie is going to be over the temple, and fought at the temple. I believe Flocke’s recruitment is for the war, and that would pit Sawyer against his fellow 815ers. And I don’t rule out the possibility of him actually fighting against them, since they are responsible for Juliet’s death. Wouldn’t it be awesome if Sawyer kills Kate!? Oh my gosh!

So that about sums up the Flocke storyline thus far. Which leaves the temple folks, the most important but also most confusing part of season six. Let’s start with this question: how did the blast send 8 individuals to 2007 – but also send them into an alternative timeline? I understand them being sent to their actual present time, but if a second reality was created, how does that factor in? I think season six desperately needs a cameo appearance by Daniel Faraday so he can explain all this to us.

So why was Kate halfway up a tree? That was ridiculous. She shimmies down, Sawyer kicks Jack in the face, Juliet dies right in front of Sawyer’s eyes (for the second time in ten minutes!) and “it worked.”

How did Juliet know it worked? Did her consciousness flash to Timeline B? Is that why she said some weird thing about going out for coffee? Anyone else have the feeling that we’ll see Juliet utter that same sentence in Timeline B, maybe even in Sawyer’s flash sideways. That would be pretty excellent. Maybe that will trigger Sawyer to realize that his ‘other’ self is still in Timeline A, sort of like Juliet acting as his constant, and maybe his mind will start to bounce from one Timeline to the other. Would that not be awesome if the whole constant idea was re-introduced, since that was everyone’s favorite episode?

Meanwhile, Sayid is dying, Jack can’t save him, so ghost-Jacob shows up and informs Hugo how to save Sayid using an Egyptian artifact that Jacob stuffed into a guitar case. Brilliant. So when the temple folks capture the 815ers, it was part of Jacob’s plan, and thanks to Hurley’s quick thinking the crew is saved from the firing squad. What’s up with Lenin and Dogan? Should we care about them? Why is LOST introducing new characters so late in the game? Both of those dudes bug me for some reason.

Why is the pool dirty? Because Jacob is dead, and Flocke is in charge now, that’s why. Which is why the whole ‘drown Sayid’ routine doesn’t work out how they hoped it would. Dogan doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing, does he? He’s always one step behind. He can’t even manipulate Jack to do what he wants. That was elementary for the Others’ other leader, Ben Linus.

So somehow Sawyer escapes, and Kate (of course) chases after him, hoping to win his heart so that she can crush it again. Jin comes along too (probably to look for Sun) and then who shows up … Jungle Claire! According to Dogan, she is possessed by a darkness, the same darkness that took Sayid. Or rather, the word used is ‘claimed.’

Is Claire the new Rousseau? She looks just like her, but was Rousseau claimed, or just crazy? It seemed she was the only Frenchie who wasn’t claimed. Will Claire remember the Losties, or Aaron, or anything? Not sure. Will she still be a terrible actress? For sure.

So the Kwon reunion is postponed for a while, now that Sun is headed to the temple, and Jin is headed away from the temple. Blast! But before Jin can go anywhere he must deal with crazy Claire.

Back in the temple, Sayid died but then came back to live. His first words: “What happened?” A brilliant reference to the episode title “Whatever happened, happened.” Or a clue, because when Richard took Ben into the temple and healed him, Ben’s first words after waking up were “what happened?” Does Sayid know that he is claimed? Or has the darkness not yet reached his heart? Is there any way to stop it without killing him? And apparently he has to be killed voluntarily, much like the way Jacob had to be killed by one of his own people, someone who was baptized into the pool of Jacob-ness. Now Sayid has been baptized into the dirty pool of the Monster, so does he have to be killed by one of the Monster’s people?

Or does this mean that if the Losties can keep Sayid from being “claimed’ by the darkness, that he can be the weapon used to kill the Nemesis, since he is now one of the nemesis’s followers. That’s a theory that makes sense to me. Sort of like the loophole killing. Plus Sayid does have it in his nature to kill, and wouldn’t it be redeeming if the torturer ended up being the one who ultimately killed the bad guy and saved the day?

In the rest of the temple action, we’ve seen Cindy and the kids after a four season absence, and Hurley and Miles continue to provide perfect comic relief at just the right moments. Jack has relapsed into his annoying, demanding, cocky season two self, and I don’t know if that’s because the bomb didn’t work and he no longer believes in destiny, or if Matthew Fox is just an awful actor and doesn’t know how to act any other way. It’s a shame that the two central characters of LOST, Jack and Kate, are played by the only two actors on the show who display no character depth. Especially when they are pitted next to constantly brilliant performances by Locke, Sawyer, Ben, and even Hurley and Sayid on occasion.

The Temple Others are panicking and scattering ash around like crazy, preparing for the impending war against Smokie. They know it’s coming, because they know Jacob’s dead. But something tells me Jacob has an ace up his sleeve, and it might have something to do with Timeline B. Or his ace might be Ilana, his mysterious follower who was smart enough to let Bram and the boys get killed by Flocke while she stayed outside. She definitely knows something that she’s not telling the rest of the gang. Like, how did she know to be on Ajira 316 in the first place? And how did she know that Nemesis would take over Locke’s body? In my opinion she’s definitely been to the island before. If she didn’t have that annoyed lisp, I’d say she’s the most interesting new character in a while.

So that about sums up the action so far.

I’d like to ask a few questions, starting with this one: who the heck was the little boy that Flocke saw in the jungle? Why were his arms bloody, and who was he referring to when he said “You know the rules. You can’t kill him.” Was that not one of the creepiest and coolest scenes in LOST history, when Flocke chased him through the jungle, and seemed genuinely freaked out by both his appearance and his words of warning?

I think the boy was a young Jacob, and I think he was referring to not killing Sawyer, but it could just have easily been Richard, I'm really not sure which. I think Jacob and Esau are like the captains of a team, and they pick teams by touching people, or manipulating people, or maybe some join the team voluntarily. When the final war begins they (Jacob and Esau) aren’t allowed to fight, like captains who aren’t allowed to play. Since Flocke recognized the boy Jacob, I think it stands to reason that Esau and Jacob knew each other as kids, or at least Jacob was a kid and Esau was an adult. The bloody arms make me think that the kid was murdered, presumably on the island, by the Nemesis. But if the kid is a young Jacob, does that mean Jacob was dead all along? I guess that could be why he never ages. Or maybe the arms were bloody to symbolize that Jacob is now dead, after being stabbed by Ben. Maybe the fact that there’s a kid Jacob implies that there’s a kid Monster, thus furthering my theory that Smokie is Aaron.

What about the rules? Who made the rules? Did Jacob and Esau make them together? Or is there a higher power, maybe the Island itself? What are the rules? Who knows about them? Ben and Widmore talked about rules, but do either of them really know what’s going on?

I think the rules are designed to give people free will, and to keep the fight fair. Or possibly, to make the fight more interesting. Similar to the rules of chess, and all the people on the island are pieces. And like we saw on the cave wall, certain pieces get captured, and some stay in the game. In fact, the word used in chess for taking an opponent’s piece is “claimed.”

What about the fact that the when the boy appeared, he was shining with a sort of golden glow? Usually when an apparition appears in the jungle, it’s the smoke monster? But it obviously wasn’t, since Flocke was standing right there.

Or maybe it was a different kind of smoke monster. A WHITE smoke monster? Have there been two smoke monsters all along, claiming pieces and getting to know the players so they can recruit them for the war? Remember when Locke saw the Monster is season one, only it was from the monster’s perspective and we didn’t see what Locke actually saw, and then later he told Jack “I have looked into the eye of the island, and what I saw was beautiful.”

Could that have been the white smoke monster?

I’m torn on this theory, and won’t be shocked either way. I’d love it if there were two smoke monsters, but it’s not vital to the story if there are.

Ilana says that the Nemesis is now stuck in the form of Locke, and won’t be able to turn into anyone else. Why is that? Is part of the rules? It must be because Jacob is dead, and one of them has to have a permanent body at all times, or something to that affect? What is the significance of the temple? What is in there that Flocke wants so badly? Is it the healing pool of water? A way off the island? Or a way to possess final and absolute dominance of the island?

Based on the original 1850s conversation between Jacob and the Enemy, we know that they disagree profoundly on human beings and having them on the island. Smokie doesn’t seem to think too highly of mankind, which makes me nervous for Sawyer. Jacob seems to trust people and continues to bring them to the island, even though they continually fail. Maybe he doesn’t just want them around for random decoration, but maybe he’s been searching for his replacement, for the Candidate, for centuries and that’s why he keeps bringing more and more people to the island. Maybe all the people he touched in the real world (Jack, Kate, Sawyer, etc) are now Candidates.

Doesn’t it just seem inevitable that Jack will become the new Jacob? Oh man …

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

16 days

hey guys
now that football season is over it has been 16 days since my last post. i feel bad. i'd like to write some stuff about the pistons but they're so pathetic i don't even want to think about them.

the nba trade deadline is this thursday. was hoping to see Bosh or Ray Allen get traded but it doesnt look likely. Caron Butler went to Dallas and Marcus Camby is now on Portland, and both of those trades may end up being more meaningful than people realize when the West playoffs roll around. especially Camby giving portland the center and rebounder they needed so badly. that could be huge in the playofs against bigs like gasol, duncan and dirk.

this trade also opens the door for blake griffin ato start next season for the clips and gives them a pass-first point guard in steve blake off the bench, something they need. as for washington, they traded one slacker (butler) for another (josh howard) and lost a viable center (haywood) in the process. they should be better off financially but they still have giblert arenas' ludacris contract dangling over their heads like the sword of damacles and dopey flip saunders calling the plays, so don't look for them to be a playoff contender for another 4-5 years.

rumors are swirling that amare stoudemire is leaving phoenix in the next two days, and it sounds like its either cleveland or miami. i'll believe it when i see it. the dude is athletic and scary-looking, but ultimately kind of harmless in the paint . i dont think he makes either team much better to be honest, nor does he keep lebron in cleveland or keep d-wade from taking the highest $$ offer.

ummm... what else? the all star game was decent. the dunk contest was wretched.

oh, it sounds like corey maggette might be going to the cavs if they cant get amare. that would be pretty big if you ask me. partly because the cavs need another scorer, and partly because the addition of maggette would severely cripple lebron's chances of keeping up 30 ppg and thus not winning the scoring title and allowing durant (or maybe carmelo) to take the title.

which would be great for two reasons:
1 - i love Durant and would love to see him win the scoring title, and
2- that would mean lebron has only 1 scoring title after 7 seasons in the league
(by comparision, michael jordan had 7 scoring titles in his first 8 seasons, and the one year he didnt win it (his rookie year) he scored the most points in the nba but didnt have the highest average. by contrast, the one time lebron did win a scoring title he did NOT score the most points in the league. of the 10 times MJ won a scoring title, he always scored the most points as well. all that to say, stop comparing lebron to MJ people.)

nothing else to say except that LOST is on tonight and its going to be a good one.

last week sucked because it was a Kate episode. this week is a John Locke, called "The Substitute." we've seen episodes called 'the constant' and 'the variable' already and they've both been focused on time travel and the question of linear timelines. will this week be when we see why there are suddenly two timelines and how they're connected? will locke in timeline A be healed from paralysis? will locke in timeline B come back to life? is sayid now the black smoke monster? is claire? where is locke taking richard? will sun and jin finally reunite this week? what about desmond? and aaron? and is jacob really dead?

a lot of questions. hopefully we'll see some answers this week.

Monday, February 1, 2010

SB Pick




Super Bowl Pick

After a 67% regular season, I am now 5-5 in the postseason, after picking the first 4 games wrong. The Super Bowl will decide whether I am above .500 or below .500. It all comes down to the Colts and Saints, who have been on a collision course for Miami ever since week 1. Will it be the Team of Destiny, or the Team of Dominance? The hurricane-hit city of hope, or the fair-weather-fans of Indy who booed their own team for going 13-1? The best quarterback in the NFL, or the second best quarterback in the NFL? (Note: I’m not sure which is which.)

America will be rooting for the Saints; residents of Indiana will be rooting for the Colts.

I still haven’t decided who I’ll be rooting for.

I love the ‘Destiny’ angle and Drew Brees is one of the classiest, nicest players dating back to his Purdue days. But the Saints have Shockey. And Reggie Bush. And Harry Connick Jr. And I don’t want to see any of those clowns celebrating.

I like the Colts too, but when I went to the Colts-Pats game in November and saw half the stadium leave when the Pats took the lead by 13 with 4 minutes left, I lost any respect I had for the Indy faithful. I seemed to be the only one in Lucas Oil Stadium who knew Peyton Manning would come back and win the game, and I was the only one who wasn’t cheering for the Colts. Between that and the week 16 booing, I’d say Colts fans are the least deserving fan-base in the NFL, other than Pittsburgh of course.

So I’m rooting for New Orleans’ fans.

But I like Peyton, and Wayne and Clark and all those guys, and the Colts are such a classy, no-nonsense team who plays the right way. I also like the fact that if Manning wins it, he really cements himself as one of the all-time greats without question, and I’d be okay with that. I like Bill Polian, and Jim Caldwell, and especially Tony Dungy. So I’d be okay with the Colts winning. The only problems I have with that are a) watching Eli celebrate the win, and b) Colts fans who don’t deserve it.

So overall, I’ll be rooting for New Orleans, but understanding that in a historic perspective it’s better if the Colts win, and I will not lose any sleep either way. Unless I’m rooting for the Lions or against the Steelers, I really am not invested in who wins or loses any game.

As far as my prediction, right now I’m leaning towards the Saints, and here’s why:

(yes, Andy I realize you wrote basically this same thing but I thought about it a few days ago and then saw you write it yesterday so stop copying everything I say!)

The last two games, the Saints D has played against Kurt Warner (who just had arguably the best season of his career) and Brett Favre (ditto). Their defense has been torched, but it’s also been primed to face the best QB in the NFL who isn’t on the Saints. Gregg Williams will continue to apply pressure on Manning, a strategy that both the Jets and Ravens tried to no avail. But the alternative is to rush 4 and force Manning to make tough throws, and if you do that, Manning will destroy you. It’s a lose-lose situation, but at least pressure packages give the Saints D the chance to make a big play or two.

The Colts defense, on the other hand, has played back to back games against Joe Flacco (who absolutely fell apart as the season progressed) and Mark Sanchez (a rookie with some hideous facial hair). Are they ready for Drew Brees? No. Not even close.

The Colts D will continue to rush Freeney and Mathis and rely on the overall speed in the middle of the field to stymie the passing attack. They’ve faced two straight rushing offenses and fared pretty well, but their primary weakness is against the pass, and Brees should be able to roll over them with ease.

We all know this is going to be a high-scoring, offense-dominated Super Bowl, and it’s probably going to come down to the fourth quarter. But my gut tells me that the team who gets off to a faster start will be in control, and will have the luxury of running the ball and staying flexible on offense. (Even though in both Championship games, the team that got off to the faster start ended up losing). But I think the Saints will be that team. I think Brees leads them to at least 2 TD drives in the first quarter. I think Indy has to play catch-up, and Brees makes it difficult by continuing to score every chance he gets. I think we’re in store for an epic QB dual, a back and forth scoring affair that makes both defenses look pedestrian, and I think at the end of the day, everyone will be saying, “Well what do you know, Drew Brees is the best quarterback in the NFL right now.”

The highest scoring Super Bowl ever was 49-26, a combined 75 points, when San Fran beat San Diego in 1995. I’d say the odds of this game breaking that record are at least 1:3. Each team needs to score 5 TDs and someone has to score one more. No sweat.

I think we’re looking at 35-45, Saints.

But then again …

The Colts are 15-0 in the last 15 games that they’ve actually tried to win. Dating back to last year, they are 25-1 in their last 26 games in which they actually tried, and the one loss was an overtime game against San Diego in which the Colts never got the ball in OT due to the worst rule in all of sports (the coin flip). It’s tough to bet against those odds. It’s tough to bet against the most clutch player in football, Peyton Manning. (Never thought I’d say that …) It's tough ...


But the Saints are the Team of Destinae.
(yes I realize it's spelled wrong but it looks better like that)

Saints by 10.

Brees - MVP.

And Manning makes this face:

Enjoy the Super Bowl (and commericals).
Go Lions.