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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

week 17 picks

Despite a blistering 13-3 week straight-up, I managed to go just 6-9-1 against the spread.

Finished the regular season 131-125-10 ATS and 173-83 straight-up.

Some of these games are for all the marbles; others are for no marbles at all. Week 17 is usually the toughest week to pick. For many players, it's a glorified scrimmage. But for many other players (and coaches), it's a last-ditch effort to keep a job.

No Thursday games, no Monday games. Let's start with the worthless games and get to the good stuff last.

Redskins (5-10) @ Eagles (7-8)
Predicted Line: PHI by 7
Actual Line: PHI by 9

Last week was vintage Mike Shanahan. Trying once again to prove that he can squeeze productivity out of any random running back, Shanny gave 21 touches to never-before-heard-of rookie Evan Royster, who previously had just 20 total touches on the season. Ryan Torain was healthy, but like I've said before, Shanahan thinks he's coaching fantasy football, so he just plays whoever he wants.

Royster predictably did great (132 yards), but the Redskins lost at home to a 2-12 Vikings team that was without Adrian Peterson. Soo ... I guess we should congratulate Shanahan on getting what he wanted (100 yards for a guy named Royster), despite losing a game he definitely should have won. And somehow, I seem to be the only one who thinks Shanahan should be fired...?

The Eagles will probably win, but 9 points is a lot to ask for. I'll go Philly 27-20.

Bears (7-8) @ Vikings (3-12)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2
Actual Line: Pick Em

Even before the Bears were officially eliminated, this game was going to be Josh McCown against Joe Webb, with AP and Forte out. Yikes.

The Bears are 0-4 since losing Cutler and Forte, while the Vikings have had a chance to win in three of their last four. A Minnesota win combined with losses by Tampa, Cleveland and/or Jacksonville could move the Vikings draft position from 3rd to 5th or 6th. That would be sweet!

I guess I'll take the home team. No idea what to expect in this battle for worthlessness. Vikings by 3.

Seahawks (7-8) @ Cardinals (7-8)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 2
Actual Line: ARZ by 3

Of all the meaningless games, this is the worst. Both teams were statistically alive last week; both teams are dead now. Nothing matters in this game - not draft order, not coach's futures, nothing. So assuming everybody plays relatively hard, I think the better team is probably Arizona by a hair, so I'll take them 24-20.

Lions (10-5) @ Packers (14-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: DET by 1

This game is technically meaningless, as both teams are playoff-bound. Green Bay has locked up the #1 seed, and will probably sit Rodgers on the bench for at least the second half. Detroit is playing for a shot at the 5th seed (and a game against the NFC East winner, which I'm not convinced is better than playing San Fran), but more importantly, we're playing for momentum going into the playoffs. Granted, beating up on Matt Flynn might not be too extraordinary, but 11-5 would sound better than 10-6. I think Detroit probably wins by 4ish.

*EDIT
I am retarted. I just realized that the 6 seed in the NFC will be playing New Orleans, not San Francisco. Both teams are 12-3 and San Fran has the tiebreaker. The only way San Fran loses the bye is if they lose to St. Louis, which is simply not happening. So in other words, Detroit desperately NEEDS to win this game, to avoid playing the red hot Saints and Drew Freaking Brees. Holy crap, why didn't I realize that earlier?

Colts (2-13) @ Jaguars (4-11)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4
Actual Line: JAC by 4

All that 'Suck for Luck' stuff actually lived up to the hype. This game is huge. If Indy wins, they'll be picking #2, assuming the Rams lose to San Francisco, which they will. That means Indy gets USC left tackle Matt Kalil to protect Peyton Manning next year (and a great building block for the future), and it means the Rams get the #1 pick and will auction it off to the highest bidder, which could be any of 10 or 15 teams. This game is huge.

If I'm a Colts player, I'd be going all out, because I'd rather pick #2 and avoid the media circus. If I'm a Jags player, I'm tanking, going for a top 4 pick. No clue how it might play out, with a horrendous quarterback matchup and two absymal coaches, but I guess I'll take the points and say Jags by 3.

Bucs (4-11) @ Falcons (9-6)
Predicted Line: ATL by 10.5
Actual Line: ATL by 14

Atlanta clinched the playoffs with losses by Seattle, Arizona and Chicago, but a win here combined with a Detroit loss would give them the 5 seed, so they'll be trying like crazy. The last thing they want is a rematch against Brees in the first round of the playoffs. For Tampa, not so much trying. They still have a shot at a top 5 pick in the Draft. So I will take Atlanta to cover the gigantic spread, 27-10.

49ers (12-3) @ Rams (2-13)
Predicted Line: SF by 9
Actual Line: SF by 10.5





With the Saints winning on Monday night and moving to 12-3, the Niners will be forced to actually play this game in order to clinch a bye. The 49ers will win, of course, but it might be hard for them to fully focus on this game knowing that the playoffs are right around the corner. Besides, they know they can beat the Rams giving only half an effort. Heck, the Rams are torn between starting Kellen Clemens and Tom Bradstater. But winning big on the road isn't always easy, and the Rams might be compelled to try to save some pride or maybe to avoid having the #1 pick circus. Either way, I'll take the points. I'll say Niners by 10.




Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (12-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 9.5
Actual Line: NO by 9.5




Brees broke the single-season passing yards record last night. Newton broke the rookie passing yards record last week. Newton has the most rushing TDs ever for a quarterback, and Brees is a few games away from the record for most consecutive games with a TD pass. Newton will win ROY, and Brees actually created an amazingly close MVP battle with Rodgers.




Sucks to be Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman in that division.




Both of these teams are extremely hot right now, and I've been picking (and winning) with the Saints for a few weeks in a row. But I'm taking the Panthers here for two reasons:
1. Cam is the backdoor master;
2. But mainly, because the Saints will be scoreboard-watching, and if the SF-STL game is totally out of hand early, the Saints will have nothing to play for. I expect that'll happen, and Brees might sit out the 4th, allowing Newton to stage a comeback and possibly win outright.




I'll say Saints by a score of 30-27.




Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3




Houston is locked in to the 3 seed and can sit their starters if they choose, while the Titans are playing for a chance at the playoffs (if the Jets and Bengals lose). Sure would make sense to take Tennessee. I guess I won't overthink it. Titans 21-13.




Jets (8-7) @ Dolphins (5-10)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1.5

The Jets need to win to stay alive, and they also need the Bengals and Titans to lose. Miami continues to play hard, but they'll be without Jake Long in this contest. I'll take New York by 3.

Bills (6-9) @ Pats (12-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 12.5
Actual Line: NE by 11.5

New England simply needs a win and they've secured the #1 pick. Pretty amazing for a team with horrendous defense. I'm taking New England here because the Bills beat the Pats back in week 3, and Brady has made a career out of avenging losses. Plus, Brady needs 200ish yards to co-break Marino's record, and he probably wants 4 touchdowns to get him to the 40 plateau. This just seems like a classic 'run up the score' game. Pats 48-20.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (4-11)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 7

Roethlisberger is questionable but should play, at least for the first half. The Steelers will be scoreboard-watching, because the Ravens also play at 4:15 and if they go up big early on the Bengals, the Steelers won't have any reason to play. But if Baltimore is in a close game, Pittsburgh will demolish the Browns, and that's what I expect to happen. Stellers 27-6.

Ravens (11-4) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 4.5
Actual Line: BAL by 2.5

Huge game #1.

If Cincy wins, they play Houston in the playoffs and Baltimore gets the dreaded 5 seed and has to travel to either Denver or Oakland, while Pittsburgh gets a bye, a home game, and a really, really good chance at the Super Bowl. Yuck.

If Baltimore wins, Cincy still has a chance at the playoffs if they get losses from the Jets, Titans, and either Raiders or Broncos.

This is a really tough call. I'm taking Baltimore, 23-21.

Chargers (7-8) @ Raiders (8-7)
Predicted Line: OAK by 4
Actual Line: OAK by 3

Chargers' season is over; Raiders make the playoffs with a win and a Denver loss, or a win and losses by the Bengals and Titans. Gonna take the Chargers, 22-16.

Chiefs (6-9) @ Tebows (8-7)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 3

KYLE ORTON REVENGE GAME!!
Chiefs 23-20 in OT.

So to recap the AFC,
Broncos AND Raiders lose, Denver takes the division at 8-8 and will host the Steelers in the playoffs, while Tennessee gets the other Wildcard spot and will play at Houston in a week 17 rematch.

Then in round 2 of the AFC playoffs, New England gets an easy win against either Houston or Tennessee, while Pittsburgh plays at Baltimore in the annual Ravens-Steelers playoff matchup.

So just like I said a month ago, the AFC is a three-team conference.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Giants (8-7)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3

Assuming Detroit beats the Packers' backups, this Sunday night matchup will determine who Detroit plays in the first round. Both fan bases are completely unconfident in their underperforming and mistake-prone teams.

Romo is starting with a bad finger, Felix is starting with a bad hamstring, while the Giants will be without Umenyiora, Manningham, and Ballard. It's very likely that the losing coach will be fired and the losing quarterback will be berated, while the winners of this game will see their demise postponed at least 2 weeks, and then the firing and berating will commence. These are two of the most unclutch franchises in sports.

I see this game coming down to the final possession, and that usually means it's a coin flip. But if I have to pick which quarterback is more likely to lead his team to a 4th quarter win, I've gotta say Eli. Giants 31-27.


Go Lions.




Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Week 16 Picks

this week:
9-6-1 against the spread
9-7 straight up

season:
125-106-9 ATS (54.1%)
160-80 SU (66.6%)

Lions clinched the freaking playoffs!

Texans (10-4) @ Colts (1-13) - Thursday
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 5.5

This line is a solid 4 points lower than where it should be, thanks to the Colts unexpected win last week against Tennessee. Now it's all the rage to talk about the Colts possibly losing the #1 pick to St. Louis. It sounds cool, but if you do the number-crunching it's actually pretty much impossible. In order for that to happen, the Colts would have to win not only this game, but the next game as well. That would be an 0-13 team winning 3 straight with Dan Orlovsky. Really??

What the guys at ESPN don't want to mention is that in the event of a three-way tie at 2-14, Indy would hold the tie-breaker over St. Louis and Minnesota (strength of schedule), and would get the #1 pick regardless. So unless Indy actually somehow wins this game, let's put off the talk about the Rams deciding whether to draft Luck.

Despite the trend of home teams dominating on Thursdays, I think Houston is going to bounce back with a vengeance. Their defense is way better than people realize. And Indy isn't going to get another fluky 80 yard run from Donald Brown. I'll take the Texans by 14.

Lions (9-5) @ Chargers (7-7) - 4:15pm
Predicted Line: DET by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 2.5

Let's just jump right into it. I have absolutely no confidence in this game, having watched Phillip Rivers destroy the Ravens D last week. He's playing incredibly right now, with a QB rating of 132 over the last 3 weeks. That's 7 TDs, 0 picks, a 75% completion percentage, and one of those games was against the league's best defense. With the way Detroit's defense looked last week, overpursuing and missing tackles and giving up big plays to chumps like Marcel Reese and Darius Heyward-Bey, I don't have any idea how we'll stop Rivers and Vincent Jackson and Gates and Floyd. On top of that, Gunther Cunningham's decision to employ the increasingly popular but never effective 'wide nine' is completely insane, because our pass rush hasn't actually improved, but now teams are running the ball all over us with ease.

Hopefully Stafford and Calvin can pull off another miracle comeback, but I don't have good feelings about this one. San Diego is probably the one team I least want to play against this week. I'm going to have to say Bolts win 33-26.

So with that, let's look at the Lions' playoff chances. First off, I'm going to assume we lose week 17 in Lambeau, just to make this simpler.

-Atlanta could also lose 2 straight and be 9-7, but they beat us head-to-head, so they own that tiebreaker.

-Chicago could win two straight and also be 9-7; the head-to-head is a tie, but then Chicago wins the divisional record tiebreaker.

-In the NFC East, a 9-7 split between Dallas and the Giants is possible, in which case New York has the tiebreaker over Dallas and forces Dallas to be the Wildcard option, and we beat Dallas head-to-head so we own that tiebreaker.

-In the NFC West, Arizona or Seattle could finish 9-7, but not both because they play each other week 17. If Arizona did, we'd own the tiebreaker for record against common opponents; if Seattle did, they'd beat us for strength of victory tiebreaker.

So, even if the Lions lose 2 straight, the only way we could NOT make the playoffs would be if either Chicago or Seattle won their last two games. At least I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

But THEN ... there are some three-team tiebreakers in case Detroit is tied with two teams at 9-7, and in those scenarios, we lose to Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Seattle, but beat Arizona. So, we could potentially be screwed if that happens.

So we need Chicago, Seattle, Arizona, Dallas and the Giants to all lose, just to be safe.

Giants (7-7) @ Jets (8-6)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 3

Two bumbling, perennially-disappointing franchises with mistake-prone QBs and surprisingly leaky defenses. Both have their share of elite players on both sides of the ball, but both make too many mistakes and play too inconsistently to be anything other than first-round fodder. This game is huge for both teams, and really for the entire league. Despite Rex Ryan's trash talk tirade, I see the Giants as the better team, with the better coach and the significantly better quarterback. Sure, Revis will shut down Nicks and the Giants are really struggling to stop the run ... but I just don't feel good about Mark Sanchez giving 3 points on a neutral-field to a good team. I'll take Giants by 3.

Vikings (2-12) @ Redskins (5-9)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 6.5

With Peterson finally healthy, the Vikings are poised to win this game big. Washington's only perceivable strength is the pass rush, and a great pass rush is neutralized by a great running back. Ponder has been struggling lately, but this is his game to get back on track against 8-in-the-box. Rex Grossman should be able to score some points on the awful Vikings back seven, but I expect the Vikings to grind it out, dominate time of possession, and win easily, 26-16.

Bucs (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
Predicted Line: CAR by 5
Actual Line: CAR by 7.5

Remember when the Bucs upset the Saints to move into a tie atop the division at 4-2? Yikes. They have since managed to lose 8 straight games, none of which has been closer than 6 points. Other than Gerald McCoy, the Bucs haven't really lost any key players to injuries, so it's safe to say they really are as bad as their record indicates. Raheem Morris went from a rising star to a guy who could be coordinating in the NCAA soon.

The Panthers are headed in the other direction. This is a lot of points, but I just don't see Tampa putting forth much effort this late in the season. I'll say Panthers by at least 14.

Rams (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 13.5 (Roethlisberger might not play)
Actual Line: None

The line was set at 16.5 for a couple days, but then removed. I'm going to use that line, because my hunch is that Ben will play, not because the Steelers need him to beat the Rams, but because they want to enter the playoffs playing their best, not limping. With Kellen Clemens starting for the Rams, it sure makes sense to take the favorites and the large spread. But the Steelers are 0-4 trying to cover huge spreads this year; the reality is, they just don't have a killer offense and the defense is a slower, older version of its prior self, and with more holes. Plus, their best O-lineman is out. So I'll take the points. Why not. Pittsburgh 27-13.

Raiders (7-7) @ Chiefs (6-8)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 2.5

Oakland should be demoralized after that home loss to Detroit, while KC is coming off a thrilling win against the 13-0 Packers. The Chiefs love playing for Romeo Crennel (or are they just happy that they don't have to play for Todd Haley anymore?), and Kyle Orton executed a wonderful "Eff you" to the entire league last week. It should continue. Chiefs 23-20. KC still alive for the division if Denver loses ...

Broncos (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3.5
Actual Line: DEN by 3

I actually want to bet on a push, because the chances of Denver winning by 3 are more likely than any other result. But I guess I'll take the points and say Tebow wins by 2.

Jags (4-10) @ Titans (7-7)
Predicted Line: TEN by 6.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7

Gonna take the points and say Titans by 3.

Cardinals (7-7) @ Bengals (8-6)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 4

This should be another good game and I'll take the points. In fact, I'm gonna take the Cards straight up. Cincy hasn't beat a decent team in like 6 weeks, and the best team they've beat this year was probably Tennessee. The Cardinals have beat San Fran, Dallas, Philly, Carolina .... So I'll take Arizona by 3.

Wait, John Skelton on the road? ... Bah, never mind, I'll go Bengals by 3.

Dolphins (5-9) @ Pats (11-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 10.5
Actual Line: NE by 9.5

With the Pats' terrible defense and the inspired play of Matt Moore, I'll take the points and say New England by just 7.

Browns (4-10) @ Ravens (10-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 12.5
Actual Line: BAL by 12.5

So far I've taken 8 underdogs and only 3 favorites; I actually have 5 underdogs winning straight up. I'm hesitatant to take the points again, but I always like fiesty, scrambly back-up QBs to cover big spreads. Seneca Wallace is a fiend. Ravens by 6.

49ers (11-3) @ Seahawks (7-7)
Predicted Line: SF by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 2

It would be great for Detroit if the Niners win and terminate Seattle's playoff chances. However if the Lions are going to win one of their next two games and clinch a playoff spot, I'd rather see the Niners lose, because the thought of playing Drew Brees in the first round of the playoffs makes me want to eat tin foil.

Regardless of what I want to happen, San Fran's great front 7 is going up against one of the hottest running backs in Marshawn Lynch, and playing in always-crazy Seattle (formerly Qwest Field, now called CenturyOne or something). And don't look now, but Tarvaris Jackson has put together 3 straight solid games, winning by scores of 31-14, 30-13, and 38-14.

I'm not suggesting the Niners will overlook the Seahawks the way they overlooked the Cardinals two weeks ago and lost. I simply think Seattle can beat anybody at home, so I'll take the underdog yet again, 23-20.

Eagles (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 1.5

Lots of entangling playoff situations ... but the simple version is: Philly needs to win to stay alive, whereas Dallas needs to win next week to have a chance, and this game is pretty much meaningless for them.

The Giants play the early game, and if they win, the Eagles are out, but if they lose, the Cowboys need to win this game to lock up the playoffs, otherwise next week's NYG-DAL game would determine the division winner, unless Philly wins next week against the Jets, in which case Philly wins the division. So in other words, both teams need to win this game, but both teams will be eagerly watching the Giants game too.

I'm not a big fan of Vick this year, especially on the road, so I'll take the home team who is strangely favored by only 1.5. How about Cowboys 33-30.

Bears (7-7) @ Packers (13-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 13

Josh McCown will reportedly start for Chicago instead of Caleb Hanie. It's tempting to think Green Bay will be in trouble after the "blueprint to beat Rodgers" was discovered, plus the injuries to Jennings, Nick Collins, and two offensive lineman ... but come on, Josh McCown against Aaron Rodgers, in Lambeau? Pack by 10.

Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 7
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

The Saints are way too hot for me to pick against them right now. Brees needs 306 yards to break the single-season yardage record, and he'll do that in this game. New Orleans 34-24.



Go Lions!




Tuesday, December 20, 2011

NBA Preview: Haves and Have-nots

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this, because I'm not sure anybody cares. But I care enough to at least get some predictions written down. Let's start in the Eastern Conference. Remember, it's a 66-game season, crammed into 120 days.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat - They still have big fat nothings from the point guard and center positions, but the addition of Shane Battier is exactly what Miami needed: an unselfish hustle player, an elite defender, and a solid outside shooter. With LBJ and Wade sharing the ball and attacking the rim, the Heat have just enough shooters (Chalmers, Bosh, Battier, James Jones) to take full advantage. Defensively, they'll probably be the NBA's best team.

Potential downfall: aside from LeBron's manic desire to be loved which somehow caused him to be hated, and LeBron's allergicness to fourth quarters, there is still the tumultuous head coaching situation. Erik Spoelstra is in way over his head and all his players know it. But I still have the Heat going 53-13 for the #1 seed.

Chicago Bulls - Led by MVP Derrick Rose, last year's #1 seed was ousted from the Eastern Conference Finals in 5 relatively easy games by the Heat. Instead of making a big move for Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler, the Bulls picked up past-his-prime Rip Hamilton, and not much else. They don't get any scoring from the center or the 2-guard, and we can't expect much from Boozer anymore either.

Cakewalk: last year the Bulls won the Central Division by 25 games. It's the least competitive division in basketball or any sport for that matter. So they can suffer lots of injuries, all shoot left-handed for the entire month of February, let Rose skip 15 games to sail around the world, whatever they want, and they'll still win the division easily. I'll say 46-20, which barely earns them the #2 seed.

New York Knicks - Other than Chris Paul to the Clippers, the Knicks pulled off the biggest move of the offseason so far, obtaining Tyson Chandler in free agency, outbidding at least 10 other teams who wanted him. Chandler gives the Knicks exactly what they needed: defense. With Melo, Amare and Chandler the Knicks have by the far the league's best frontcourt, and all they need is for the guards (Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, rookie Iman Shumpert) to not mess things up.

Do they have what it takes to beat the Heat? That will be the question of the year for the entire league, but the Knicks may be the best-suited to upset Miami in the playoffs. Miami is too small to guard New York's bigs. If Amare replicates the amazing season he had last year (25 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 blocks), New York will stand the best chance of keeping Miami out of the Finals. Regular season record: 45-21.

Boston Celtics - This is where it gets ugly. The NBA this season, especially in the East, is all about disparity. The three top teams (all located in marquee cities, not coincidentally) are loaded with superstars, depth, defense ... while the rest of the conference is inferior and uncompetitive, and they know it. David Stern has tried to emulate the NFL and become a parity-driven league, but he's also tried to maximize revenue and load the big cities with big stars and make the NBA internationally popular. Unfortunately, you can't succeed at both.

Boston's "Big Three" is now a thing of the past, as Rajon Rondo is their best player by a wide margin. Rondo was dangled in trade rumors for months and is now disgruntled, and the losses of Perkins and Glen Davis have depleted Boston's depth in the paint. Jeff Green hasn't panned out, Jermaine O'Neal is awful, and the formerly great trio now averages 35 years of age.

One More Shot: Does the Celtics aged roster have enough in the tank for one last hurrah? Or will they start out slow and overreact by dealing Allen and/or Rondo to a contender for future picks and young players? I think the latter will happen, and the Celts will still manage to finish 40-26 for the #4 seed.

Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks continue their quest to finish with the 5th seed as many times as possible in a single decade. Good enough to always make the playoffs, never good enough to sniff a Conference Finals. By locking their lynchpin players (Johnson, Smith, Horford) down for long-deals, they'll be in the middle of the playoff pack once again. Adding Tracy McGrady and losing Jamal Crawford drops them a step backward. 39-27 gives them a 59% winning percentage, right on pace with the past several years.

Any Chance: could this be the year that Atlanta finally makes a leap into serious title contention? Uh ... nope...

Orlando Magic - The big enigma for obvious reasons. Dwight Howard could be traded before I finish this sentence, or he could retire as a member of the Magic in 10 years. Most likely, he'll play at least some games for Orlando this year, maybe in a hostage-esque situation like Carmelo last year. (You know I'm leaving, so you may as well try to get some value for me). Orlando is committed to dumping Hedo Turkoglu's contract to whoever takes Howard, which makes him considerably less attractive. The Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Mavericks, Rockets ... heck pretty much every team is a factor. But Dwight wants to be in a big market, so it'll probably be either New Jersey or LA or maybe Chicago if he wants to take less money and win titles.

Life Without Dwight: Orlando will be looking to add at least 3 or 4 first-round picks for Howard as well as create some serious cap space and add a couple young building blocks. He's the best center in the NBA by a mile and could end up with a career in the Hakeem-Shaq echelon. With Jameer, J-Rich, Big Baby and Ryan Anderson, the Magic should be able to make the playoffs even without Howard. The East is a very sad conference. I'll say 36-30 for the Magic, with Howard playing in the first 10ish games.

New Jersey - Moving to Brooklyn. Owned by a Russian billionaire who apsires to be President of Russia. Part-owned by Jay Z. Superstar point guard in Deron Williams. New arena, excited new fans. Aaaand ... Brook Lopez is their second best player. Ugh.

The Nets have everything in place to be an elite franchise, except for the players. They missed out on Wade, LeBron and Carmelo. They pulled off a nice trade for D-Williams, who then left for Turkey, but came back. But now the Nets need to pry Dwight Howard from Orlando somehow, otherwise they're never getting past the first round. I'm going to say they go 35-31 for the 7th seed. Unless they get Dwight early in the season, in which case they'll finish 3rd or 4th and be a scary playoff matchup.

*

From here on out, there is a list of 8 teams that absolutely do not deserve to be in the playoffs. It's really just a fight for which of these 8 doldrums gets to be swept by the Heat. This is why the title of this blog is 'Haves and Have-nots.'

Milwaukee, Indiana, Washington and Philly are the only teams that seem to be building towards anything remotely promising; of those, John Wall could make a superstar leap and bring Washington into relevancy.

Cleveland, Toronto, Charlotte, and Detroit are just completely worthless, and will be going through the motions as bottom dwellars. It's amazing to think that just 6 years ago, one of those teams went to consecutive NBA Finals and had the best starting 5 in basketball. I have all of these teams 15 games below .500, and it doesn't make any difference who finishes with what record because of the stupid ping-pong ball lottery. But for the record, Detroit will finish the year with the worst record in the NBA, 11-55.

Western Conference

So much for keeping this short. How about this:

1 seed - Dallas
2 seed - Clippers
3 seed - OKC
4 seed - Memphis
5 seed - Lakers
6 seed - Spurs
7 seed - Nuggets
8 seed - Blazers

Playoffs ... blah blah blah, Chris Paul alley-oop to Blake Griffin, Spurs are dead, Kobe is pissed, Heat over OKC in 6. Good for you LeBron, you a-hole.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Week Fifteen Picks

Week 15 :
8-7-1 ATS
10-6 SU

Season:
116-100-8
151-73


Sitting at 108-93-7 going into week 15 (a 53.7% percentage), my goal is an average of 10-6 over the next three weeks, which would get me above 55% by the end of the season. Fortunately, this week of games looks relatively easy. Here are the week 15 picks, but first a quick recap of the last week:

-Todd Haley and Tony Sparano fired; Crennel and McDaniels are rumored replacements in KC; get ready to hear the names Gruden, Dungy, and Cowher a billion times each; at least 3 more head coaches will be fired by the end of the year, the most deserving of which is Jim Caldwell; DeMarco Murray and Greg Jennings are out for the rest of the regular season; James Harrison suspended 1 game for helmet-to-helmeting Colt McCoy; Elway voices approval of Tebow for the first time; Houston clinches their first postseason berth ever, thus removing the ugly stigma of being the only franchise in major American sports to have never played in a playoff game; Marshawn Lynch has become a legitimate top 10 running back in the NFL; DeSean Jackson is almost certainly not going to be on the Eagles next year; all 4 Wildcard spots are up for grabs and unexpected teams (Seattle, San Diego, Philly) are still alive; only 3 divisions are still up for grabs, and they're neck-and-neck (that's the AFC South, AFC West, and NFC East); Packers going for 16-0 and the only remaining challenge will be the Lions (week 17); Colts going for 0-16 and the only winnable game is Jacksonville (week 17); Vikings and Rams fighting for the #2 pick in the Draft (Mall Kalil); the Bucs and Bills, both promising young teams, have both lost 6 straight thanks to a myriad of injuries; lots of teams are heading into the playoffs on big winning streaks: Pats and Saints (5 straight wins); Ravens and Steelers (4 straight); Broncos (6 straight); Texans (7 straight); and of course the Packers (18 straight). And lastly, get ready to hear the names Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in the same sentence about 600 trillion times between now and April.
My thoughts right now on the Colts #1 pick:
-What they should do: trade the pick to Miami for their 1st, 2nd, 4th, next year's 1st and 3rd, a conditional 1st and 3rd in 2013, and a stud like Cameron Wake or Vontae Davis; keep Peyton, let him retire a Colt. Use the picks to bolster the D and give Peyton a stud playmaker. Have a great shot at winning a Super Bowl in the next 4 years, and then draft a new franchise QB four years from now, with a solid supporting cast of young quality players.
-What they will do: trade Peyton to either KC or San Fran for a 1st and 3rd and a conditional 2nd next year; draft Luck; go 5-11 in 2012 thanks to a still terrible defense; slowly improve the defense over the next few years; draft an offensive tackle and/or a receiver early in 2013.

Either way, I think Jim Caldwell needs to be fired, and I think Andrew Luck will win a Super Bowl by 2018. It's a good situation for the Colts no matter how they choose to act.

Week 15 picks:

Jags (4-9) @ Falcons (8-5) - Thursday
Predicted Line: ATL by 8.5
Actual Line: ATL by 11

I thought this line would be lower after Jacksonville put a 41-14 whupping on the Bucs last week. Jones-Drew played his best game of the year, and the defense completely dominated, something we've seen a few times this year. But Matt Ryan, who has struggled mightily at times this year, took advantage of an awful Panthers D and played perhaps his best game of the year as well.

The reasons to pick Atlanta -11 are plentiful and obvious: they have more to play for (a win would almost guarantee them the playoffs); home teams tend to dominate on Thursdays; Matt Ryan is waaaay better at home than on the road; Jacksonville leads the NFL with 27 players on IR; Blaine Gabbert is simply atrocious (50.3% completion percentage, 5.40 YPA, 65.3 passer rating); the Jags just fired their head coach 2 weeks ago; Julio Jones just played the best game of his career last week.

All that being said ... I just don't like Matt Ryan this year. And I think the line is a little too high. So I'm going against conventionally wisdom and saying Jacksonville's defense plays better than expected, and Jones-Drew has another decent game, and Falcons win by 6.

Cowboys (7-6) @ Bucs (4-9)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8.5
Actual Line: DAL by 6.5

Bad luck for the Lions: our 4 primary competitiors for the Wildcard play against crap teams (JAC, TB, WAS and SEA) this week. Dallas has lost two straight heartbreakers and now the annual 'Dump the coach and quarterback' discussion has started in Dallas. So predictable. Fortunately for them, Tampa is a wreck right now, Josh Freeman has completely fallen apart, the defense has too many injuries, and worst of all, Raheem Morris's future is in doubt. I've gotta take Dallas, 23-13, but I do think the injury to DeMarco Murray is going to catch up with them and bite them in the butt.

Something to watch for: if Philly wins out (Jets, @Cowboys, Redskins) they will be 8-8 and own the tiebreaker against Dallas; they would also own the tiebreaker against New York if the Giants lose to both the Cowboys (week 17) and Redskins (this week). If that were to happen, all the Eagles would need is for Dallas to lose this game in Tampa, and they (Philly) would be in the playoffs, provided, of course, that they win their next 3 games.

In other words, go Tampa!

Redskins (4-9) @ Giants (7-6)
Predicted Line: NYG by 7
Actual Line: NYG by 7

One of the oddest storylines of this season has been the play of Eli Manning. After years of dopey mediocrity and turnovers, Eli is enjoying by far the best season of his eight-year career, with a career-best in QB rating, completion percentage, and the all-important YPA. In fact, he's thrown for more yards so far (in 13 games) than in any other 16 game season of his career. And are you ready for this: Eli is on pace for 5,000 passing yards this year, something that's only been done twice in NFL history (Marino 84, Brees 08). If he continues at his current pace and finds an extra 30 yards in there somewhere, he'll break the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,084).

Of course, it's not getting much publicity because Brees is on pace for 5,376 yards, and Brady and Rodgers are on pace for 5,264 and 5,072, respectively. Four guys breaking 5,000 yards in a single-season. Amazing.

All that being said, Eli no longer deserves to be treated like the dopey little brother, and I'm actually taking him seriously from now on. I think Washington is pretty underrated from a talent perspective, but they just suffer from terrible coaching and quarterbacking, and won't be able to compete against the Giants who are the healthiest they've been all season. G-men at home, 28-16.

Packers (13-0) @ Chiefs (5-8)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 13.5

It would be tempting to take the Chiefs to cover, and say something about Greg Jennings's injury. But does anyone really think Greg Jennings is the key to the Packers offense? No offense to Greg Jennings, but I think the drop-off to James Jones and Donald Driver will not affect Rodgers one bit. KC just fired Todd Haley, who deserved it for being an arrogant hothead, and interim-coach Romeo Crennel then demoted Tyler Palko and made Kyle Orton the starter, broken finger and all.

The only way this game is moderately close is a fluky special teams play or a defensive TD for the Chiefs. The odds favor a blowout, Pack 35-17. Rodgers sits out the 4th quarter.

Saints (10-3) @ Vikings (2-11)
Predicted Line: NO by 10.5
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

Three thoughts related to this game:
1. This is the second week in a row the Saints are favored by 4 points fewer than they should be. I took them to cover 3.5 last week and I'll gladly take them this week too. Does Vegas not realize that Drew Brees is currently shattering yardage records?
2. Joe Webb was electrifying last week, but Leslie Frazier wisely opted to stick with Christian Ponder. That's the right move. Webb might give them a better chance of pulling the upset here, but Ponder is the QB of the future, and you don't want to smash his confidence by benching him for a glorified running back.
3. Now that Matt Kalil has officially declared for the Draft, the only way Minnesota doesn't get him with the #2 pick would be if the Vikings win more games than the Rams. Since St. Louis has Pittsburgh and San Fran coming up, and the Vikings have Washington and the Bears, I like the odds of Minnesota picking 3rd instead of 2nd. That could make a huge difference in the future of the NFC North.

Briefly, about Matt Kalil: 6'7", 295 lbs, 22 year old junior, smart guy, good character, hasn't allowed a sack in 2 years, considered the best LT prospect since Jake Long, and maybe even better than Jake Long. So obviously, we don't want the Vikings taking this guy.

Saints 29-14.

Seahawks (6-7) @ Bears (7-6)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3.5

Since losing Jay Cutler, the Bears are 0-3. That might be all I need to say. Seahawks 21-20.

Dolphins (4-9) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1

Remember when Buffalo was 4-1 and Miami was 0-5? Who would have guessed that Miami would finish the year with a better record?

Unfortunately, this game is going to be a freaking nightmare. Jake Long isn't expected to play; Buffalo is without 5 or 6 of their best players; and Matt Moore is questionable, which could mean J.P. Losman returns to Buffalo to play against his former team. Talk about hideously intriguing.

I think Moore probably plays, and Miami wins 16-13. But I really have no clue.

Panthers (4-9) @ Texans (10-3)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 6.5

Now that Houston has clinched their first ever playoff berth, I think it's time for a relapse. Carolina 23-13. Does this even constitute as an upset when TJ Yates is the favored quarterback?

Titans (7-6) @ Colts (0-13)
Predicted Line: TEN by 8
Actual Line: TEN by 6.5

With Jake Locker making his first start for the Titans, I have a terrible, terrible feeling that Indy is going to win their first game. I won't pick them straight up, but I will take the points, just in case. Titans 20-16.

Bengals (7-6) @ Rams (2-11)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 6.5

The Colts may be 0-13, but I think the Rams are a worse team. Sam Bradford has had perhaps the most disappointing season I've ever seen from anybody. Bengals by 13.

Lions (8-5) @ Raiders (7-6)
Predicted Line: Pick Em
Actual Line: DET by 1

I've been on the fence about this game week. Lots of injuries, lots of things to consider.

First, the obvious: both teams are right on the postseason-bubble and need this game badly. This is basically, pardon the cliche, a 'playoff game.'

Second, the injuries. Oakland is without McFadden (their best player), and likely without KR/PR/WR Jacoby Ford. Their other starting receiver Denarius Moore is likely to play.

The Lions are expected to have Kevin Smith back, although he'll probably get hurt by halftime. Chris Houston is questioanable, and 'limited practice' is never a good sign. Delmas and Fairley are doubtful, as are Durant, Berry, Wright, are our two backup DEs (Young and Jackson). That's 7, maybe 8, injuries on defense. Holy crap.

Fortunately, Nstompakong Suh will be back in action, which gives the entire defense a much-needed boost. If Houston plays, we've got our 6 best defensive players (Suh, Tulloch, KVB, Avril, Levy, Houston) in action, which at least somewhat negates the loss of Delmas and 5 valuable backups. Make no mistake, if Detroit does make the playoffs and wants any chance whatsoever to upset San Fran or New Orleans in the first round, we'll need every single one of those players healthy. But for a Mcfadden-less Raiders, I think we'll be pretty effective with guys like Bobby Carpenter and John Wendling playing meaningful snaps.

The best part of this game for the Lions is the potentially horrid play of Carson Palmer. At times, Palmer has looked like a poor man's Jay Cutler, throwing into triple coverage, overthrowing open guys, and just making terrible decisions. But at other times, he's looked pretty polished and poised. He's definitely a passer who can be rocked by a good pass rush, which will be the key to this game.

Oakland's offensive line is pretty good, but not impenetrable. Their best lineman is a rookie, LG Stefen Wisniewski. Granted, he's a pretty amazing rookie, but still a rookie. The other guard is a 34 year old dude named Cooper Carlisle who should really struggle against a furious Suh. The tackles are great run-blockers, but mediocre pass-protectors. So another huge key to the game will be shutting down Michael Bush and forcing Palmer to throw. Thank God we have Stephen Tulloch, who should be able to rack up 10+ tackles and keep Bush from doing what he does best - yards after contact.

Without Tulloch, I'd be pretty much giving up hope for this game. I think we often take for granted having one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL.

With all the injuries in the secondary, it's inevitable that Carson will find a wide-open Heyward-Bey or Schielens on some bogus 60 yard score, but Detroit should be able to force 2 or 3 picks and keep Oakland from lighting up the scoreboard.

This sounds stupid, but Oakland's best player might actually be their punter, Shane Lechler. He's by far the best punter in football, having ranked either 1st or 2nd in average-yards-per-punt (a stat I've never mentioned before) every season since 2003. I was watching the Raiders-Bears game a few weeks ago when he booted an 80-yarder over Hester's head. The dude is a punting fiend. Combined with Stefan Logan being pretty much worthless this year, I expect Detroit to have come lousy field position throughout the game.

For Stafford and the offense, we face a slightly-worse-than-average defense which is totally healthy. Oakland was playing some great defense early in the season, particularly against the run, but has been steamrolled in consecutive games, giving up 46 points to the Packers and 34 to Matt Moore and the Dolphins. The loss of Nnamdi Asomugha is finally catching up with their secondary, and Calvin Johnson should have a monster game against CB Chris Johnson. They'll shade him with a safety and a linebacker as most teams do, and that will allow Pettigrew and Burleson and Young some room to work. It's been a pretty successful plan all year and Oakland doesn't figure to be the team that figures out how to solve Megatron.

As long as the O-line gives Stafford some time, we should be able to forego the running game and having lots of success through the air (unless Kevin Smith is actually healthy, in which case let's give him the ball early and often and try to move the chains, because this is seriously going to be a game of field position and 3 and outs will be killer. I'm not undervaluing the importance of having an All Pro punter).

Oakland does have a pretty decent pass rush, ranking 5th in sacks. Kamerion Wimbley is a stud OLB and Richard Seymour is one of the best pass-rushing DTs (because he's really a converted DE), and then there's stud MLB Rolando McClain, who I thought I really liked until the whole handgun-assault-related arrest. It's strange that since McClain's arrest the entire Raiders D has fallen apart. It makes you wonder if the players are thinking "Hey, I'm counting on this guy to fill a gap and make a tackle, and just last week he was holding a gun in some dude's face in Alabama ..."

The Raiders's secondary stinks, but it's not quite as bad as Detroit's. Oakland has the edge in running the ball, stopping the run, defending the pass, and a huge edge on special teams. But Detroit has an edge at QB, a huge edge at receiver, and a decent edge in terms of pass rush. Coaching is pretty much a wash, unless the undisciplined tomfoolery of the Lions shows up again, in which case we don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

It should be a very close game, and I'm scared of a repeat of the 49ers game (getting our asses kicked by field position), but I'm taking the Lions because we've got two superstars and Oakland has none. We also don't have Carson Palmer.

Let's say Lions, 34-24.

Patriots (10-3) @ Broncos (8-5)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 7.5

I mean ... is there anything I can possibly add to the Tim vs. Tom discussion that hasn't already been said 500 times. The only interesting thing I can say about Tebow is that I think Tebow is a great name for a dog, and will probably be the name of my future dog someday.

I'm taking the points, but sort of expecting a massive Pats blowout. For the record I'll say Pats 27-23.

Jets (8-5) @ Eagles (5-8)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: PHI by 3

Are you sick of hearing the phrase "control their own destiny" yet? I am.

This game kicks off at 4:15, and if the Cowboys and Giants both win (which they should), the Eagles will know they are eliminated. If that happens, they'll probably come out flat. But who knows. All I know is, the Jets CTOD, so I'll take them, 29-24.

Browns (4-9) @ Cardinals (6-7)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 5.5
Actual Line: ARZ by 6.5

That's the sixth game with a spread of 6.5. Not a very creative week in Vegas apparently.

Colt McCoy was almost killed last week by the lethal James Harrison hit, so we're pretty sure Seneca Wallace will get the start against John Skelton. Whoa, watch out, we might be breaking TV ratings records!

CB Joe Haden should be able to shut down Fitzgerald, and I think that might keep this game close. Plus Seneca is a tricky guy to stop with his speed and ability to extend plays. I like the Cards by 3.

Ravens (10-3) @ Chargers (6-7)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAl by 2.5

Apparently Phillip Rivers no longer sucks. It's a shame he waited until week 12. Even if Rivers has another great game, he's facing an elite defense, and the Ravens O has way more talent than the Bolts' D. Baltimore is way too focused on beating out the Steelers for the bye, and SD isn't focused on much except maybe running Norv Turner out of town. I'll take Baltimore by 13.

Steelers (10-3) @ 49ers (10-3) - Monday night
Predicted Line: SF by 2.5
Actual Line: None

No line because Big Ben is 'questionable.' That's a load of crap. He played last Thursday 45 minutes after almost breaking his ankle, and limped through an entire second half; now he had 10 days to prepare for the most important game of the season and he's going to let Charlie Batch play, guaranteeing the Steelers a loss and solidifying the fact that Pittsburgh will play a road game in the second round of the playoffs instead of a home game? Roethlisberger may be a dirt bag, but he's a competitor, and he wants to get back to the Super Bowl. He's going to play.

Since there's no official line, I'm going to put it at SF by 2.5, and I'm going to take the Niners to win by 3.

That's all ...
Go Lions.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Week 14 stuff

Started out awful, but nailed most of the late games and ended up 8-8 ATS and 13-3 straight-up, so I'm 141-67 SU and 108-93-7 ATS at this point.... Enormous game at Oakland this week.

Fortunately, the Raiders have fallen into holes of 34-0 and 31-0 in their last two games, so they may not be playing their best football right now. Let's hope that Suh returns with a vengenance and stomps all over Carson Palmer's throwing arm. Week 15 picks will be up soon.

Before we get to the picks, here are some random things I'm thinking about:

1) The Packers remaining schedule. They get Tyler Palko next week, then Caleb Hanie and the Forte-less Bears. Translation: they will incontrovertibly be 15-0 heading into week 17 against Detroit in Lambeau. In other words, Detroit needs to win three straight to make the playoffs. Dammit.

2) Speaking of the Packers, I heard some asshole say that Tim Tebow is now in the MVP discussion. Really? A quarterback who has 75 completions on the entire season? I hate people like that. I don't even remember who it was. Some jerk on the radio. Rodgers has already won the MVP and any discussion to the contrary is a waste of time. For the record, Brees and Brady are 2nd and 3rd, and nobody else deserves mention. It's called the Most Valuable Player, not the Nicest Christian Award.

3) On the topic of year-end awards, let's call it a two-man race between Mike McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh for Coach of the Year. Lots of other candidates (Tomlin, Kubiak, the other Harbaugh), but only two coaches have been consistently great all season. I'd give it to Harbaugh for doing so much with less talent, but if the Pack go 16-0 McCarthy certainly deserves it. I'll be fine either way. Just as long as Rex Ryan doesn't somehow take it.

4) Speaking of stupid coaches, what are the odds that Rob Ryan is a head coach next year in the NFL? Gotta be at least 90% right? That guy gets more TV time than any coordinator in the league. I also heard a pretty solid rumor that Mike Martz is interested in head coaching again and might head to the NCAA. Good riddance.

5) So what coaches can we expect to be fired this offseason? Jack Del Rio was long-deserving of the boot, and Jim Caldwell should have been fired 7 weeks ago. Steve Spagnuolo has done a terrible job with the Rams and is probably better suited as a D-coordinator. Todd Haley is in trouble in KC. Mike Shanahan is the worst coach in NFL history. And then there's the two big question marks: Andy Reid and Norv Turner. Both guys took ultratalented teams and wildly underperformed. They could both be fired, but my hunch is they both get one more year. Oh, and then there's Tony Sparano, who might have saved his job in Miami with a 4th win in 5 games.

6) The defensive MVP battle is wide open right now, unlike the offensive MVP. There are at least 6 deserving candidates. Jared Allen (14.5 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (15 sacks) are this year's best pass rushers, while Woodson and Revis belong on the ballot once again. Polamalu has been too nicked-up, and the Ravens have about 5 elite defenders who all cancel each other out, although you could make a decent case for Terrell Suggs. Rookie Von Miller also belongs on the ballot, as does Clay Matthews, and Houston's Connor Barwin. But my vote goes to Patrick Willis, the cornerstone of San Fran's incredible defense. In his 5-year career, Willis has amassed an incredible 530 solo tackles, more than anyone else over that span.

Willis's numbers stack up neatly with the best middle linebacker of all time, Ray Lewis, who had 586 solo tackles after 5 seasons. Lewis won his first D-MVP in his 5th season, and I think Willis will do the same.

Here's my D-MVP ballot:
1. Patrick Willis
2. DeMarcus Ware
3. Jared Allen
4. Darelle Revis
5. Von Miller
6. Connor Barwin
7. Charles Woodson
8. Clay Matthews

7) Everybody hates the BCS, and finally people aren't afraid to say it. Boise State's head coach has been respectfully applauding the retarted system for years, and finally had enough. After his team was sentenced to play in the ShitFarm Bowl against Aquinas College, he spoke up and basically said what everybody's thinking: "This sucks. Change the dang system."

8) As much as I hate college football, I am excited about two things: the Draft, and the Heisman. Both are totally unpredictable this year. Andrew Luck will go #1 overall, and that's pretty much the only thing we know.

Over the last decade, I don't think the Heisman has been a surprise once; it's usually decided by November. But this year, it's a three-man race between Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Trent Richardson. Any of them could fairly win it. Personally, I would vote for Luck, but I also think Griffin deserves to win and will win. I wouldn't be upset if Richardson won either; he only amassed 1,900 yards and 23 TDs with a sick 6.0 YPC. (Compared to former teammate Mark Ingram, who won the Heisman in '09 with almost identical stats but fewer TDs).

So why would I vote for Luck instead of Griffin? Their numbers are both unbelievable, and Griffin surprisingly has a better completion percentage and more passing TDs, as well as rushing stats that most running backs would be happy with. But you've got to look at the schedules. Luck played against the Pac 10, while Griffin went 20/22 with 3 TDs against the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. Seriously, who??????

Griffin also racked up 6 TDs in a beatdown of the Rice Owls. So, while it was impressive to see Baylor finish the season with wins against Oklahoma and Texas, you've got to take Griffin's gaudy stats with a grain of, well, Rice.

College football enthusiasts (aka losers) will say "Don't give Luck the Heisman just because he's going to be the better pro!" And I agree. But give Luck the Heisman because he went 11-1 against a tough schedule.

9) Speaking of the three Heisman hopefuls, did I mention I was pretty excited about the Draft in April? The great thing about this particular Heisman race is that the three leading candidates all project to be awesome pros.

As I look at Luck and Griffin, I see pretty clear NFL equivalents, and they're two guys who are having unbelievable seasons. Luck is a bearded Pac 10 pocket passer with 4.75 speed and more athleticism than you think; his arm strength and accuracy are almost perfect. In other words, he's a clone of Aaron Rodgers. Luck is actually 2 inches taller than Rodgers. And I seriously think if he can grasp NFL playbooks and understand NFL defenses (no easy task, mind you), he'll be one of the 5 best QBs in the league as soon as next year.

Griffin, on the other hand, is an ultra-athletic quarterback with the mobility and speed of a running back, but an unexpectedly smooth ability to throw the football. He came out of no where this season and will end up winning the Heisman and going early in the 1st round. The NFL equivalent is easy: Cam Newton.

Both Newton and Griffin run a 4.50 and have the mobility to extend plays while keeping their eyes downfield. Newton is bigger and more able to shed tacklers, but Griffin may end up being the faster NFL quarterback, with a Vick-esque ability to break 50-yard runs. But make no mistake - Robert Griffin III can throw the ball, better than Vick, Vince Young, Tebow, any of the guys he'll be compared to. Because of the incredible success of Newton's rookie season (not to mention Tebow slowly transforming the NFL into a run-focused league), I think Griffin will end up a top 8 pick in the Draft, going to either Miami or Washington.

Then there's Richardson, a freak of an athlete and maybe the best prospect in this Draft outside of Andrew Luck. He runs a 4.42 and benches almost 500 pounds. At 5'11", 220 lbs, he's got the frame of a Marion Barber but the skill-set of a smaller guy like Ray Rice. His potential in the NFL is limitless; he can be a goal-line guy, a third-down guy, a complete package. He'll probably drop in the Draft like running backs always do, but it would be insane if he fell past pick 10 or 12. Look at what DeMarco Murray is doing this year - a third-round pick! Richardson is better than at least half the starting RBs in the league right now and he hasn't even played his last college game yet.

10) Final thoughts on the Draft: it appears that Minnesota and St. Louis will be picking 2 and 3 in some order. Neither team needs a new quarterback, so it'll likely be OT Matt Kalil and WR Justin Blackmon, unless somebody wants to trade up for Griffin or QB Matt Barkley. The rest of the 1st round is a complete unknown. Six teams are currently 4-8 and and five teams are 5-7. That means a team like Philly could pick anywhere from 4th to 15th, depending on how they play over the next four weeks. I think some teams, particularly those with dead-duck coaches or seeking new QBs, will be in full-fledged tank mode.

11) Looking ahead to the playoffs, it really seems like only 3 teams from each side have a legit chance. You know who they are.

In the AFC, it's New England, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Houston is doing great things on defense, but let's all just be honest, T.J. Yates isn't winning the Super Bowl. In the NFC, Green Bay, New Orleans and San Fran have a major edge on the rest of the conference. Those teams went 3-0 this week, while the rest of the NFC playoff hopefuls went 0-7. With Detroit playing like a bunch of retards and Chicago losing Matt Forte, it's up to either Dallas or Atlanta to throw a wrench in the NFC playoffs. I don't see that happening, although it's more likely than Yates, Tebow or Sanchez winning a playoff game in the AFC.

But what's ultimately going to matter is homefield. Either Baltimore or Pittsburgh will be awarded a first-round bye, and the other will have to waste its time beating up an inferior opponent. Most likely, Baltimore gets the bye, since they have the tie-breaker. That's assuming the Ravens don't stupidly lose to the Browns or Colts.

The Packers already have homefield clinched, but it'll be interesting to see whether San Fran (10-2) can hold off the Saints (9-3) for the bye. New Orleans doesn't want to lose in the first round like they did last year against stupid Seattle, in what I will always remember as the stupidest football game of my lifetime.

Before the year started, I picked SD over NE and NO over GB, with the Saints beating the Bolts 35-27. Obviously the Chargers are going no where (though mathematically still alive), so I will change my AFC pick to Baltimore over New England. I still like the NFC side, and I still like Brees to go 24-33, 315 yards, 4 TDs and win his second Super Bowl MVP.

12) Looking back at the rest of my preseason predictions, I obviously whiffed on the MVPs (Rivers and Mario Williams), although Williams might have had a chance if he hadn't got hurt. I also missed O-ROY (Ingram) and Comeback Player (Romo), but I nailed four other picks. Here they are:

-McCarthy, Coach of the Year
-Von Miller, D-ROY
-Jack Del Rio, First Coach Fired
-Peyton's neck, Most Annoying Storyline

With that, let's begin the Week 14 Picks.

Browns (4-8) @ Steelers (9-3)
Thursday night

Predicted Line: PIT by 11.5
Actual Line: PIT by 14

You may have noticed I've been less vocal about my disdain for the Steelers this season. I'm not sure why. Maybe my football-related hatred has been directed at the Bears, Jets, really bad commentators, and the BCS, so I haven't had much to say about the Steelers this year. To review: they think they are so cool because they beat up on a crappy division, their players are thugs, their fans are clueless, their fans talk weird, their fans have this gross sense of entitlement and arrogance even though they have no idea what they're talking about, Roethlisberger is a dirtbag, Bettis was never anything more than a glorified fullback, Harrison belongs in a mental hospital, and it's impossible to drive around Pittsburgh without getting carsick and/or lost. That pretty much covers it.

For this game, I actually want the Steelers -14, even though the line is too high and the Steelers' 35-7 win against Cincy was closer than the score made it look. The Bengals actually outgained Pittsburgh in the first half, but fumbled a kick return, had a TD called back on a penalty, and gave up a punt return for a TD. That could have easily been a 21-20 game instead of 35-7. But the Steelers did dominate in the second half once Dalton was forced to throw, and now that Woodley and Polamalu are healthy, the defense is really clicking. They haven't allowed more than 17 points to anybody except Baltimore all year, and the Browns have only scored 20 once since week 2. Also, Ben Roethlisberger might be playing the best football of his entire career, but nobody is really noticing. I'll go Pittsburgh 33-10.

Colts (0-12) @ Ravens (9-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 17.5
Actual Line: BAL by 16.5

My rooting interests over the next 4 weeks look like this, in order of importance:

1. Lions make the playoffs
a. Lions win
b. Bears, Falcons, Giants, Cowboys lose
2. Colts go 0-16
3. Packers don't go 16-0
4. Jets miss the playoffs; Steelers don't get the bye

If the Lions do end up missing the postseason, it will be at least somewhat redeemed if Indy ends up going 0-16. That's a definite possibility with Mr. 0-16 himself, Dan Orlovsky, leading the charge. Seriously, what are the odds of a kid growing up in Connecticut, playing college football well enough to get drafted in the 5th round, and then quarterbacking two different NFL teams to the only two 0-16 seasons in history? It's equal parts hilarious and tragic.

Unfortunately, I believe the Colts will win week 17, at Jacksonville, in their last effort to avoid a winless season. The Jags are terrible, they're tanking for a top 5 pick, and they just lost their coach. Once Indy clinches the #1 pick, they'll be playing week 17 like it's the Super Bowl.

But this game is not even going to be close. Unlike New England last week, Baltimore will not allow any backdoor garbage TDs. Their defense has too much pride. I like the Ravens 23-0.

Falcons (8-4) @ Panthers (4-8)
Predicted Line: ATL by 1.5
Actual Line: ATL by 3

Matt Ryan was downright awful last week against Houston, leading his offense to just 10 points. Atlanta's offensive line hasn't been the same since losing Harvey Dahl in free agency; Ryan has been sacked 22 times this year in 12 games, compared to 23 sacks all of last year. His stats are down across the board, despite the addition of Julio Jones. Meanwhile, Dahl has done nothing to help the Rams offense. Strange.

The Falcons have really struggled to score points on the road for the last several years, especially outdoors. That trend figures to be a nonfactor against the Panthers' 32nd ranked pass defense. For Carolina to have a chance of winning, they'll need to rack up at least 28 points. And fortunately, I think they can.

Atlanta's D will be without CBs Brent Grimes and Kelvin Hayden, and Cam Newton has played arguably his best football over the past 2 weeks, both road wins. He hasn't turned the ball over since his 4-INT game in Detroit, and he is really maturing as a well-rounded quarterback. I was totally sold on Matt Ryan just a couple season ago, but now, I'm not so sure that Newton isn't the better QB in this game. And with both teams being nearly equal offensively, I guess I'll side with the homedog.

Panthers 34-23. Probably wishful thinking. But oh well.

Texans (9-3) @ Bengals (7-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 3

The Bengals' playoff hopes are riding on this game, and they're lucky enough to get the Texans without Andre Johnson. So it'll be plenty of Arian Foster running into a crowd of Bengals, and TJ Yates throwing on 3rd downs. That sounds like a recipe for disaster ... but I actually think Yates will fare okay. Cincy's secondary has plenty of injuries, as does their pass rush.

On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Joseph has an edge over AJ Green, and that'll throw the entire Bengals offense out of whack, forcing Dalton to throw into coverage on other parts of the field with the mighty Texans pass rush chasing after him. I could be dead wrong pinning my hopes to TJ Yates on the road two weeks in a row, but I see Houston pulling off another resilient win and slamming the door on Cincy's playoff hopes. Texans 23-16.

Chiefs (5-7) @ Jets (7-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 9

Long, long ago the Chiefs were a great home team who struggled on the road. For some reason, that isn't the case anymore. While the Chiefs aren't exactly undefeated on the road, they are at least competitive. As a road underdog, they are 23-13 ATS since 2007, including an impressive 5-1 ATS in back-to-back road games. Because of the hideous play of Tyler Palko, this line is quite a bit too high. The Jets only looked good last week because Washington is such a wreck.

Also, the KC defense is actually pretty decent, especially at the corner positions. So don't expect much from Mark Sanchez. Maybe 2 TDs, 2 picks, and lots of inaccurate passes. Of course, KC's offense won't score much either, especially with Revis shutting down Dwayne Bowe. I like the Jets outright - their playoff lives depend on this game - but they'll sweat it out, 20-17.

Vikings (2-10) @ Lions (7-5)
Predicted Line: None, Peterson gametime decision
Actual Line: None

With AP, this will probably be DET by 5.5; without him, maybe 7.5. Let's say 6.5, but in any event, I want the points, because I actually think the Vikings might win outright. I wouldn't give the Lions any better than a 51% chance of winning this game. Too much unraveling going on right now, thanks to two straight national TV games in which we got exposed as the undisciplined, unfocused idiots that we have been since the preseason, when I wrote the following prophesy:

...Detroit needs to respond on the field with great execution of their gameplan, not with stupid violence or tomfoolery. I love everything about Ndamukong Suh's vicious attitude, but I don't like when the rest of the defense initiates fights just because they want to be tough like him.

The problem is, now the offensive players are creating just as much ruckus as Suh and his cohorts. It was a total team meltdown Sunday night. Titus Young throwing the ball at a defender like it was 7th grade recess; Burleson committing 3 offensive interference penalties; Pettigrew shoving a referee like he just hit on his girlfriend. If Suh had done that, he would have been ejected, suspended, fined, and maybe kicked out of the league permanently. But whatever. It was embarrassing, not only for the fans, but for the players, coaches, and everyone who bleeds Honolulu Blue.

Now Detroit prepares for a must-win game against a division rival who is much better than their 2-10 record and would love to spoil our season. Detroit would have lost to McNabb's Vikings if not for a huge comeback, and now we get the improved Ponder Vikings. Of course, Suh is suspended, Houston and Delmas are hurt, Kevin Smith is hurt ... so I don't have any expectations for a win. The only thing working in Detroit's favor is Minnesota's crappy secondary (who just got torched by Tim Tebow), but to take advantage of that mismatch Stafford is going to need time to throw, and with Jared Allen opposite Jeff Backus I never have a good feeling. Stafford has looked really gunshy the last few weeks, like he's lost his moxie in the pocket and is just waiting to get sacked. But who knows, maybe Calvin will finally have another monster game. He is certainly due.

It's tough to make a pick with AP out. He certainly changes the entire complexion of the game. But let's just say Lions 30-27.

Saints (9-3) @ Titans (7-5)
Predicted Line: NO by 8.5
Actual Line: NO by 3.5

Wow. I don't think I've missed a line by 5 points in the entire time since I've been doing picks. Why the crap are the Saints only 4 point favorites?? I'm probably missing something here, and no disrespect to the Titans, but the Saints are just too good. I'm not going to overthink it, I'll just take the Saints, 34-20.

Eagles (4-8) @ Dolphins (4-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3.5
Actual Line: MIA by 3

How far the mighty Eagles have fallen. [Insert joke here about "dream team" and "nightmare."] What reason do they have to try now? Vick will be back in the lineup, but with his $100 million contract, what does he care if the Eagles fall to 4-9 or 4-12 for that matter? That just means he'll get a better teammate in the draft.

Miami is playing out of their minds right now, and it's about time I recognize that. Matt Moore is giving one hell of an effort to keep his starting job. It's reminiscient of what Ryan Fitzpatrick did last year, leading the Bills away from the #1 pick and saving his job in the process. Fitz got rewarded with a nice contract, and Moore might pull off the same move.

But I doubt it. Miami actually has some stud players at some pretty key positions (LT, DE, CB, WR), so if they can find themselves a franchise QB they might be a darn good team next year. Maybe Moore will earn a starting job elsewhere next year if the Fins draft Barkley or Griffin III.

I like Miami to win easily, let's say 34-17.

Patriots (9-3) @ Redskins (4-8)
Predicted Line: NE by 10.5
Actual Line: NE by 7.5

With the Jets up 20-16 and 4:30 remaining, Washington got the ball with plenty of time to march down the field, score 7, and win. I got excited for a split-second about the possibility of the Jets losing and missing the playoffs ... and then, they showed Mike Shanahan's grumpy, expression-less face on the sideline, and I could tell that all he was thinking was "... 97 Broncos ... I'm a genius ... Elway Elway Elway ... running back by committee ... 98 Broncos ... maybe next week I'll put Santana Moss at running back just to screw with everyone ... "

Then, a turnover, some penalties, terrible tackling, and all the Jets win by 15 instead of 4. Now, Washington's two best offensive players (LT Trent Williams and TE Fred Davis) are suspended for drug issues. So I've got to wonder, why the crap is this line so low?

Ohhhh yeah, I just remembered. This is the 2011 Patriots, not the 2007 Patriots. These guys don't play any defense and they gave up 24 points to Dan Orlovsky last week. No reason to think Rexy can't put up 300 yards and a garbage TD or two. So let's take the points; Washington's pass rush is pretty good. 27-20, Pats.

Bucs (4-8) @ Jaguars (3-9)
Predicted Line: TB by 1.5
Actual Line: None (Freeman?)

Both of these teams got decimated last week; both defenses are ravaged by injuries. If Josh Freeman plays for Tampa, I like the Bucs to be favored by 1.5, and I'll take them by 3. If Josh Johnson starts again, we'll say the line is JAC by 1.5 and I'll take the Jags by 3.

49ers (10-2) @ Cardinals (5-7)
Predicted Line: SF by 6.5
Actual Line: SF by 3.5

Interestingly enough, the Cards have won 4 of their last 5 games, with the only loss against San Francisco. What's changed has been their defense: they've faced 6 good running backs in a row (Murray, Gore, Rice, McCoy, and Jackson twice) and held them to an average of 77 yards per game. This isn't the same Arizona team that started 1-6. I'm not ready to say they're good or even underrated, but the defense is taking shape under Ken Whisenhunt, and they've got a true stud to build around in Patrick Peterson.

But their problem exists mostly on the offensive line. They've given up 41 sacks, the 2nd most in the league behind St. Louis. Kevin Kolb has proven that he's better suited as a backup and not a franchise QB, something Arizona wishes they would have known before they gave him a monster contract.

For this game, I'm taking the homedog for three reasons:
1. San Fran doesn't have much to play for. They've clinched the division now, and they haven't played a bad game all season and they've been due for a letdown all year. Every new playoff team has a pre-playoff letdown game.
2. The Cards are a good homedog team. They're 13-6 ATS under Whisenhunt in homedog situations.
3. The main reason I'm taking Arizona straight up, and the reason this line is 3.5 and not 7.5, is because San Fran's best player is out. Patrick Willis could probably play if the Niners needed him, but now that they've clinched the division they're wisely playing it safe and keeping him out. Without Willis, I don't know if San Fran's defense can stop anybody, even Kevin Kolb.

So what the heck. I'm taking Arizona, 27-26.

Bears (7-5) @ Broncos (7-5)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3.5

Broncos have won 5 straight, 4 of which were on the road. Now Tebow triumphantly returns home and the Denver crowd will be insane. It's a shame Cutler won't be playing against his former team, because the fans would really give him some serious crap. But Caleb Hanie probably won't fare well against the crowd noise either. Especially not without Matt Forte. That Bears offense is really going to struggle against one of the hottest defenses in the NFL.

But it's tempting to take the points, because all Tebow does is win close games. He's won the last three games by 3, 3 and 4. But something about the Denver crowd makes me thing Tebow is due for his first big blowout. I will say Broncos 34-13.

Raiders (7-5) @ Packers (12-0)
Predicted Line: GB by 11
Actual Line: GB by 11

Even though Rodgers has covered as a favorite more than two-thirds of the time in his career, I think this game ends up being closer than 11. Just a hunch. It could certainly be a blowout, but with Woodson out and Oakland playing for their lives, I am only taking the Packers by 7.

Bills (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7)
Predicted Line: SD by 10
Actual Line: SD by 7

San Diego is coming off their best game of the season, and they're feeling just a little twinge of hope that their playoff chances aren't over. Buffalo, meanwhile, is crushed by injuries and just can't wait for this season to end. I like the Bolts by 13.

Giants (6-6) @ Cowboys (7-5)
Line: DAL by 3

These NFC East games always baffle me. I guess I'll take the Giants straight up ...

Rams (2-10) @ Seahawks (5-7)
Monday night
Line: SEA by 4

Sam Bradford is not practicing and not expecting to play. AJ Feeley is out with a broken thumb. So... it will be Tom Brandstater starting for the Rams. Yes, that is a real person.

Here's the Wikipedia rundown - 6th round pick in 2009, played college at Fresno State, MVP of the Humanitarian Bowl in 2007, never played an NFL snap, has been on and off the Rams practice squad 3 times this year.

So, while I'm not a big fan of Tavaris Jackson, I guess I've gotta take the Seahawks -4.

Wait a second... is our Monday Night Football matchup really Tavaris Jackson against Tom Brandstater?? How did that happen?


Go Lions.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Week 13 Picks

This week: 11-5 ATS (12-4 straight up)
Season: 100-85-7 ATS (128-64 straight up)

Also, for the first time since early in week 1, I think the Lions have less than a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Thursday: Eagles (4-7) @ Seahawks (4-7)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2.5
Actual Line: None (Vick)

Has there ever been a bigger discrepancy in talent between two 4-7 teams? The Eagles have the talent of a 15-1 team while Seattle would be 1-15 if they played against any other division. And yet, here we are, week 13, and the freaking Eagles are tied with the Seahawks in the NFC Cellar. I never believed in Vick as a legit NFL winner, but how can a defense with Asomugha/Samuel/Rodgers-Cromartie/Babin/Cole/Jenkins be ranked 15th in yards and 19th in points? And how can that team, which also has the NFL's leading rusher, be a staggering 1-5 at home? It's one of the most bizarre things I've seen in a while. It would have been like the Miami Heat going 30-52 and missing the playoffs.

So as we say our goodbyes to the Eagles' playoff hopes, let's reflect on the epic season that never happened and ask ourselves, what have we learned from the 2011 Philly Eagles. Exactly two things:

1. Don't give a $100 million dollar contract to someone who used to torture animals;
2. Don't build a defense without any linebackers or safeties.

Now Philly heads to Seattle to face the banged-up and mostly-talentless Seahawks who are always tough to beat at home for some odd reason. Vick was ruled out today, so with Vince Young the line will probably be set at PHI by 1.5 or something. I should pick the Eagles for obvious reasons, but I have a feeling that Philly has collapsed and will no longer be trying. Their season is over barring a 5-game winning streak, and so I'm going against common sense and picking the Seahawks on Thursday night, 23-13. Yikes.

Titans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1.5
Actual Line: BUF by 1.5

Both of these teams are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thread. Buffalo has put 9 starters on IR and is coming off a crushing loss to the Jets in which their best receiver pretended to shoot himself in the leg. With that in mind, I like the Titans, who must have enjoyed watching the rest of the AFC South implode this week. To recap:

-Houston lost their 2nd string quarterback for the year and now turns to T.J. Yates, plus they signed Jake Delhomme;
-Indy fired their D-coordinator and promoted Dan Orlovsky to starting QB;
-Jacksonville fired Jack Del Rio, the owner sold the team to a guy named Shahid from Chicago, and Blaine Gabbert is still really bad.

So I like the Titans. 27-17.

Chiefs (4-7) @ Bears (7-4)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 7

Obviously a Chiefs win would be tremendous for the Lions, but having seen Tyler Palko play the last two weeks, I have absolute certainty that that will not happen. Granted, Caleb Hanie isn't much better, but the Bears have a couple guys the Chiefs don't have, namely Julius Peppers and Matt Forte. So as much as I don't like it, the Bears are going to win. But can I confidently pick Hanie to cover a 7 point spread? And then there's the possibility that Kyle Orton replaces Palko midway through the game (or starts?), and as bad as he was earlier this year, he's gotta be better than Palko. I hate these games where both quarterbacks are awful. I always get these wrong. But I'm pretty sure Matt Forte will see 30 carries and 150 yards and win this game single-handedly. So let's go Bears, 26-15.

Raiders (7-4) @ Dolphins (3-8)
Predicted Line: OAK by 1.5
Actual Line: MIA by 3

This is probably the 4th week in a row that I've guessed the line of the Miami line about 4 points too low. I guess I need to finally admit that Vegas loves the Dolphins. But I still look at them as the 0-7 losers with the terrible head coach. And while Matt Moore has an average QB rating of 100.5 over the past six games, I can't ignore the 55.6 QB rating he had last year on an equally-untalented Panthers team. Plus I'm pretty sold on the Raiders as a team that can win in the trenches against anybody and Palmer isn't quite as horrible as I thought he would be. Oakland takes this game rather easily, 24-20.

Bengals (7-4) @ Steelers (8-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 6.5

Both teams are missing their best defensive player (Leon Hall, Polamalu) and both defenses are stout against the run. So I expect lots of downfield passing and gaudy numbers for both QBs. AJ Green should have another Calvin-ish game: only a few catches, but they'll be spectacular, and one of them will be a huge TD. The Steelers will win because they have better veterans, better coaching, a better QB, and a fired up homecrowd ... but I'll say it's less than 7 mainly because Polamalu's out. Cincy covers with a late backdoor TD, 34-30.

Jets (6-5) @ Redskins (4-7)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 4.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3

Rex Ryan against Rex Grossman. Oh the intrigue. Let's say Jets 23-21.

....

Just wrote picks for all the fricking games and lost all the freaking work when I tried to post it. I hate this stupid site.

Falcons @ Texans
Line - ATL by 3

Wrote a big long thing about how good the Texans D is even without Mario Williams. Basically went on to say Brooks Reed was the steal of the 2011 draft and Connor Barwin needs to become someone that people know about and Jonathon Joseph is the most underrated CB in the league and Houston has the best pair of inside MLBs of any 3-4 team, and blah blah blah I really hate this stupid website and Houston wins by 10.

Panthers @ Bucs
Line -TB by 3.5

Both defenses suck, both offenses about equal, I like Panthers to cover, Bucs win by 3.

Broncos @ Vikings
Line: MIN by 1.5

AP is out, Denver D is great right now, Minny gives up the 4th most sacks in the NFL, and Von Miller is not only the D-ROY but maybe a top 5 candidate for D-MVP. Denver's defense deserves more credit than Tebow for the 4 game winning streak; they keep it close, and then Tebow pulls off the miracle. Broncos again, 20-19.

Colts @ Pats
Line - NE by 20

I did all kinds of research on the biggest lines in NFL history and wrote some really great stuff but I'm so dang ticked right now I'm not doing all that again. To recap:
only 9 times since 1980 has a spread been 20 points or more, and 4 of those times were the 2007 Pats; biggest line ever was 23.5 points, 07 Pats against Eagles, and the Pats won by just 3; favories of 20+ points are 9-0 SU and 2-7 ATS; teams are 104-6 SU when favored by 15+.

But I'm going Colts to cover because how bad New England's D is. Pats 41-24.

Ravens @ Browns
Line - BAL by 6.5

Ravens are pumped after winning Harbaugh Bowl and now have 3 extra days to get ready for Colt McCoy. I think they've moved past their play-down-to-the-level-of-competition stage and will crush Cleveland here, 38-3.

Rams @ Niners
Line - SF by 13

Don't think the Rams get 100 yards of offense. Niners 23-0.

Cowboys @ Cardinals
Line - DAL by 4

Best thing about DeMarco Murray is that he slowed down the Tony Romo Hype Machine by turning them into a running team. He should have another great game here. Kolb is back for Arizona, and Beanie Wells is coming off a 200+ yard rushing game. Dallas 27-24, Cards cover.

Packers @ Giants
Line - GB by 7

Giants are playing for their playoff lives, but Green Bay is just too good. Pack 42-20.

Lions (7-4) @ Saints (8-3)
Line: NO by 9

Saints are great at home; Brees is unstoppable right now; Suh is suspended; Stafford is playing his worst football of the season; Saints D is underrated, especially against the pass; Detroit's secondary is without Delmas and Houston; Kevin Smith is questionable; just no reason to think this will be close, unless Stafford can hook up with Megatron early and often and keep this close. I doubt it. Saints 38-19.

Chargers @ Jags
Line - SD by 3

who gives a crap I hate this stupid website! SD by 4


Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Through Week 12

Last night's Saints blowout brings me to 89-80-7 ATS on the season, and 116-60 straight-up. By comparison, the most popular sports writer in the world (Bill Simmons) is 88-81-7 and the host of uber-popular Walterfootball.com is 79-90-7. So I'm just saying. I am pretty sweet.

Also if you just look at straight-up picks, I am currently doing better than Golic, Hoge, Mortenson, Jaworski and Schefter ... basically all 5 of the NFL 'experts' from ESPN. The funny thing is, I feel like I'm having a crappy season picking the games.

And with that, I think I just executed my first successful humblebrag.


Now that the NBA Lockout is over, I'm thinking about writing some sort of NBA preview ... but I'm not sure if anyone cares about the NBA... ? Obviously the Pistons are a worthless burning pile of trash, but the rest of the league is riveting. Dwight Howard could literally end up on the Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Magic, or possibly a few others. And Chris Paul is a complete unknown too. He might go to the Knicks to create a new Big Three. What about Nash? Will the Mavs come out smoking again? Are the Spurs and Celtics done? Can OKC find their way to the Finals this year? What will D-Rose do as an encore? And most importantly, can the entire league unite once again to accomplish the one and only goal that pure NBA fans care about: keeping LeBron titleless?? There's a lot of intrigue, and I didn't even mention Blake Griffin's soon-to-be-remarkable sophomore season, Kevin Love going for 20 rebounds a night, Kyrie Irving making the Cavs relevant, John Wall transforming into Allen Iverson, and of course, Jimmer.

I don't care how thug-ridden the NBA used to be. Those days are gone, and the 2012 NBA season is going to be epic.

Unless you're a Pistons fan.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Week 12 Picks

So far 8-7 ATS and 11-4 SU ... needing the Saints to win by more than 7 and feeling pretty good about it. Also needing Brandon Jacobs to score less than 25 tonight in order to win the A League and keep my slim playoff hopes alive.

Some random news:

>Matt Leinart is out for the year with a broken shoulder. But is this a bad thing for Houston? Rookie T.J. Yates (a 5th rounder from UNC) is probably just as good and comes with no baggage. He's a game-manager with an average arm and as long as he limits the mistakes and lets Arian Foster control the game, Houston will be okay, at least as far as making the playoffs. But do you realize that the quarterbacks in the AFC postseason are going to be Brady, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Sanchez, Carson Palmer and TJ Yates? Can't we just skip the first two rounds and just right to Pittsburgh @ New England?

>Suh is going to be suspended, at least two games. I'm not surprised, but I am extremely annoyed. Suspensions shouldn't be given out based on reputation. 99% of the players in the league would not get suspended for doing exactly what Suh did. Imagine if Wes Welker did that. It would be considered 'fiery' and 'intense.' Then again, Wes Welker would never do something that stuhpid.

>The Bears lost, keeping them tied with Detroit at 7-4. The Bucs and Eagles also lost and are both 4-7, which means they aren't making the playoffs unless they win 5 straight and get some help. Atlanta and Dallas are also 7-4 after wins, and if the Giants somehow beat the Saints then both of those teams will be 7-4 too, which would be six 7-4 teams fighting for four playoff spots. But I think the Saints will win, knocking the Giants to 6-5 and giving Detroit an edge.

But, if the Giants do win, the Lions @ Saints next week becomes even more pivotal. Because a Lions win would make the Saints 7-5 and possibly crush their playoff hopes. Too bad our best defensive player had to get suspended ... but at least we'll get a whole game out of Nick Fairley.

>Indy fell to 0-11 and has a commanding lead in the Luck Draft. St. Louis and Minnesota are the only 2-win teams, and neither is in the market for a QB. But both are definitely in the market for the #2 pick (LT Matt Kalil probably). The rest of the top 10 is going to include some QB-needy teams, such as Miami, Washington, Seattle, Kansas City ... and also some teams that might be ready to jump ship on their current QBs and start over, such as Cleveland, Arizona, Jacksonville, and maybe Philly. There's going to be a lot of intrigue in the 1st round again, and with possible franchise quarterbacks in Barkley, Jones and Griffin, it might be another great Draft.

That also means there will be less action early in the Draft on DEs, LBs, CBs and OTs ... the positions that Detroit needs to address. My hope right now is that with the 20th-ish pick the Lions land OLB Courtney Upshaw from Alabama. Or the other Bama defender CB Dre Kirkpatrick, but he'll probably go in the top 10.

That's all for now. Go Saints.



My bad not getting the picks up before Thanksgiving ... but I have a 10 day old baby so I'm not apologizing too much. I took Green Bay -6, and although I had a glimmer of hope for the Lions I wasn't the least bit surprised that Green Bay covered. It was a predictable loss, but it doesn't change the fact that the Lions (now 7-4) have lost their Wildcard lead and now need to win some tough games (@New Orleans next Sunday night, @Oakland in two weeks, vs. San Diego the week after that) to keep themselves in playoff contention. Week 14 against Minnesota is the most winnable game left, but even that won't be easy. As for Week 17 at Lambeau ... our only hope is that Green Bay rests the starters and lets us win, but they probably won't do that if they're 15-0, which they probably will be. So while winning in the Superdome doesn't seem plausible, Detroit has to look at their primetime game in New Orleans as a must-win.

You know what would suck? If our second best player acted like a complete ass, slammed a guy's head into the turf 3 times, stomped on his arm, got ejected, denied the whole incident after the game, and gave himself a real good chance of getting suspended for the vital contest in New Orleans. It's likely that Suh will get fined (maybe 30K or something) because the incident really doesn't deserve suspension, but given his reputation and previous run-ins with Goddell, I won't be shocked if he gets suspended for 1 game and fined up to 100K.

I've defended Suh every time in the past, but this really was inexcusable. But I blame Schwartz as much as I blame Suh. Suh is just taking on the personality of his head coach. They're both a couple of hothead punks who need to learn some freaking discipline. The Suh play wasn't the only reason we lost, but it sure as heck didn't help.

The other primary problem was Matt Stafford, who played really poorly for the third straight game. Once the game was 27-8 with under 3 minutes left, Stafford could have aired out a few bombs to Megatron, likely throwing a pick but maaaybe scoring and trying the onside kick and going for the improbably comeback, but instead he chose to pad his stats with a meaningless 9 completions for 60 yards and a TD, running the clock down to the final seconds and giving the Lions no chance at winning. It was a page right out of the Harrington book. And because of that final drive, Stafford finished the game with an almost respectable QB rating of 66.5. But prior to that garbage-time drive, Stafford was 23/35 for 216 yards and no TDs (3 picks, plus 2 picks that were dropped, one of which would have been a pick-six), so his QB rating in the actual game where the Packers D was trying was a horrendous 46.8.

Wait ... I thought all Stafford had to do was stay healthy?? You mean he might not actually be great in every game?? Say it ain't so!! Blame it on his finger!! Surely it's got nothing to do with the fact that he's just an undisciplined punk who spends too much time partying and not enough time earning his $72 million dollar contract.

Anyway ... that's enough about the Lions. Let's get to the week 12 picks.

Cardinals (3-7) @ Rams (2-8)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 2.5

Let's get the NFC West out of the way ... I like the Rams, 27-14.

Bills (5-5) @ Jets (5-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 9

HUGE game in the AFC Wildcard race. Bad timing for the Bills, who just lost Fred Jackson for the year, and lost center Eric Wood last week, and lost starting CB Terrence McGee the week before, and still don't have NT Kyle Williams back from the foot injury that's kept him out for 6 weeks. They play their third straight road game against the Jets, and NFL teams are 11-24 ATS in third straight road games over the last few seasons. As much as I want the Bills to win, I just can't pick a team that's missing 4 of their best players to injuries. Jets 23-10.

Browns (4-6) @ Bengals (6-4)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 7

It's hard to believe the Browns have 4 wins. They've only scored more than 17 points once this season. In their last five games they've scored 14, 12, 12, 10, and 6. But look at who they've beat this year: Tavaris Jackson, Kerry Collins, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Dalton is better than any of those guys, and the Bengals D is really becomming solid. But they lost star CB Leon Hall two weeks ago, and AJ Green is still less than 100%. Even if Green plays, Joe Haden can probably shut him down, and Cincy doesn't really have an offensive playmakers outside of Green. Let's go with Browns +7 ... Cincy wins a snoozer, 13-9.

Texans (7-3) @ Jags (3-7)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 5

Huh? Matt Leinart by 5 on the road?? Yeah I know he's got an All Pro receiver, a great running back and a great offensive line ... but can't the Jags put 8 in the box and force Leinart to convert some 3rd downs? That Jacksonville defense is pretty underrated, and I don't think anyone realizes how bad Leinart is going to be. I like the Jags in a massive upset, 17-13.

Panthers (2-8) @ Colts (0-10)
Predicted Line: CAR by 6.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3

Whatever. Indy doesn't deserve to be within 3 of anybody. Cam Newton is going to CRUSH them. Even if the Colts were trying (which they aren't), this game wouldn't be close. Panthers 34-17. Why hasn't Jim Caldwell been fired yet...?

Bucs (4-6) @ Titans (5-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5

Both teams need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Titans are probably a little bummed that Hasselbeck's injury wasn't more serious; Jake Locker looked like a stud last week in Atlanta. But Hass will play, and either QB should be successful against the struggling Bucs D. Tampa hasn't been able to stopp anyone since Gerald McCoy's injury; even the ghost of Chris Johnson should be able to put up solid yardage. This game is really pretty even. Both teams are just a notch above average. I like Tampa and the points. How about Titans 23-20 in OT.

Vikings (2-8) @ Falcons (6-4)
Predicted Line: ATL by 12.5 (AP out)
Actual Line: ATL by 9

Like Carolina, Minnesota is much better than their 2-8 record indicates. If either of those teams had Cleveland's schedule, they'd be a tidy 6-4 and looking at a Wildcard. But alas, Christian Ponder's going to take another loss here, and that stinks for Detroit because it means the Vikings are nearing pretty close to a top 5 pick next April. The big prize after Andrew Luck is stud left tackle Matt Kalil from USC. Minnesota could certainly use him.

With no Peterson in this game, it'll be Toby Gerhart, a white dude from Stanford, and that isn't going to work. Unfortunately for Detroit, Atlanta's going to win big, 34-14.

Bears (7-3) @ Raiders (6-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 4.5
Actual Line: OAK by 4

In a way turn of events, Kyle Orton was cut by the Broncos on Tuesday. Then the madness ensued; Chicago, KC, and several other teams with undesirable quarterback situations placed bids. For whatever reason, KC got him, and Chicago is stuck with Caleb Hanie in the wake of Cutler's broken thumb.

Since nobody knows anything about Hanie, here's the Wikipedia scoop: played college football at Colorado, was undrafted in 2008, barely made the Bears roster as their 3rd string QB, played in a few games last year, had terrible stats, lost all the games he played in ... so yeah, you're probably wondering the same thing as me. Why isn't this line ten points higher?

I'll take the Raiders, 33-17. Matt Forte can only do so much.

Redskins (3-7) @ Seahawks (4-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3.5

I hate these kinds of games. Rex Grossman against Tavaris Jackson. Who gives a freaking crap. Seahawks at home by 6.

Patriots (7-3) @ Eagles (4-6)
Predicted Line: NE by 5.5
Actual Line: NE by 3.5

Vick is officially ruled out, so it'll be Vince Young against Tom Brady. That was enough to make me lean towards the Patriots, but when Philly's best player (Asomugha) was carted off the field in practice and ruled out for at least this week, it became a no-brainer. No chance that Philly can slow down the Pats offense. Pats by 13.

Broncos (5-5) @ Chargers (4-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 3.5
Actual Line: SD by 6

A lot of athletes are described as 'polarizing.' LeBron, A-Rod, Kobe ... but usually, 'polarizing' is just a euphamism for a guy everybody hates. How many players are actually liked by half the fans and disliked by half the fans? Isn't Tebow the only truly polarizing player in sports? You can't not have an opinion on Tebow.

My opinion has shifted all over the spectrum, but I'm getting pretty close to deciding what I think. He's got Roethlisberger's body, Mother Teresa's heart, and the arm of a slightly-above average high school quarterback. He can miss a wide open receiver from 5 yards away, or he can hit an open Eric Decker 45 yards downfield. It makes no sense, it's utterly unpredictable, but he's got one thing that Phillip Rivers and all other pro quarterbacks do not have: the heart of Mother freaking Teresa.

So I don't know, maybe the Chargers will blow the crap out of the Broncos and make the AFC West a good race. They probably should. But I'm sure as heck taking the points, especially given the way Von Miller is playing right now, and the fact that Champ Bailey might be able to shut down Vincent Jackson, and the fact that Antonio Gates is just one big stupid injured foot pretending to be a football player. Chargers straight-up, I guess, reluctantly, but by less than 6.

Steelers (7-3) @ Chiefs (4-6)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8
Actual Line: PIT by 10.5

Steelers 34-10...

Giants (6-4) @ Saints (7-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 7.5
Actual Line: NO by 7

and Saints 31-17.





Go Lions.