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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Week 13 Picks

Last week:
8-7-1 ATS
11-5 straight up

Overall:
89-84-6 ATS (51.4%)
108-67 straight up (61.7%)

Another week, another crushing Lions' loss.

Bill Barnwell wrote a terrific piece about the Lions' current financial troubles, and how the massive rookie deals of Calvin, Stafford and Suh are the reason why Detroit hasn't been able to build a quality roster.  That's certainly a great point, and something I hadn't thought much about.  Detroit had basically no choice but to give Calvin a monster extension last summer to keep him, and by doing so they were able to retain Tulloch and Avril for another year... but while it appeared great last year, very soon the crap is going to hit the fan.

They'll have to extend Stafford's deal soon, which will leave them with almost no financial flexibility. As a result. they may end up sacrificing Suh for Stafford.  That seems like an tolerable proposition right now, given Suh's crotch-kicking antics and general despicableness.  But he was a #2 overall pick just a few seasons ago; it would be a shame to only get a few years out of him.  One thing's for sure - if the Lions could go back in time, they'd take Joe Haden with that pick, not Suh.

Despite the good points made by Barnwell about the Lions' unfortunate timing in regard to stupid rookie contracts, I still think with good coaching and a good gameplan, the Lions' secondary and O-line (their biggest weaknesses) could be much better.  You don't have to get expensive players to get good players.  Especially at those positions, where teamwork and cohesiveness are more important than raw skill.

Jim Schwartz's impulsive, angry, defiant decision to throw his red flag on a touchdown play was the perfect microcosm of this season.  He let emotions get the best of him, he made a stupid choice that severely hurt the team, and it was completely avoidable.  Heck, right after the play, when I saw his red flag on the turf, my first thought was "It's automatically reviewed, Schwartz. Calm down."   Little did I realize that it was against the rules to challenge a scoring play, but now that I think about it, that rule actually makes sense.  If the play is going to be reviewed anyway, why waste the refs' time explaining to the coach that it's going to be reviewed anyway?  The entire goal of instant replay is to make it as instant as possible.   That said, it's the refs fault for getting the call wrong in the first place, and the league should be able to make a rule-overriding exception to the no-challenge rule in cases where the ruling on the field was clearly wrong.  Anytime the letter of the law trumps the spirit of the law, there is a problem.   However, Schwartz of all people should have known the law, so it's his fault more than the refs.  Both are idiots.

As we look ahead to the offseason and the imminent financial restrictions, it's very safe to assume that most of the unrestricted free agents will not be retained. At least not the ones that can find a better deal.  These include almost the entire defense:  Justin Durant, Cliff Avril, Chris Houston, Lawrence Jackson, DeAndre Levy, Jacob Lacey, Ashlee Palmer, Corey Williams, Willie Young, Erik Coleman, Drayton Florence, and a few other less vital players.   The players who will command the most money will be Avril, Houston, Levy and Durant, and my guess is Detroit will only be able to keep one of them, or at most two.  This could be very bad news.

I've been looking ahead to the 2013 Draft quite a bit lately, now that the Lions stand a decent chance at picking in the top 6 or 7.  There's only one cornerback who is considered a top 20 prospect, and that's Alabama's Dee Miliner, a player with Revis-like skills. He's the guy I would love Detroit to grab, but they're going to have to lose 4 of their next 5 games to be in good position to take him. He's likely a top 6 pick.

If they don't address the secondary, I guess I'd like to see them add a pass rusher.  VandenBosch stinks, Suh is unstable, and Avril will probably play elsewhere in 2013.  There are plenty of elite DEs and OLBs, highlighted by Georgia's Jarvis Jones (possibly the #1 overall prospect), Damontre Moore from A&M, Barkevious Mingo from LSU (weirdest name ever), Dion Jordan from Oregon, and a few others.  With Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young also free agents, this becomes a position of dire need.

If not a CB or DE, I guess I'd like to see the Lions take another offensive tackle.  Gosder is due to be a free agent and almost certainly won't be retained, so Reiff won't be enough to rebuild the O-line.  There are several early 1st round offensive tackle prospects. The best is Luke Joeckel, probably a top 5 pick, and another option is Michigan's Taylor Lewan.  There's also a guard from Alabama named Chance Warmack who is considered a top 5 prospect; he might be the first guard taken in the top 15 since 1997, when Chris Naeole went 10th,  just a few spots ahead of Tony Gonzalez.

If not DE, CB or OT, I guess the Lions could take a linebacker.  Heisman hopefully Manti Te'o might fall to them, if the need for linebackers isn't great at the beginning of the draft.  Te'o is already being called the future Patrick Willis, so if Detroit can't retain Durant and Levy, Te'o would make a super replacement.   Another great linebacker would be Alec Ogeltree, who on Youtube looks more impressive to me than his more-hyped Georgia teammate Jarvis Jones.

The reality is, Detroit needs to be focusing on these positions, and only these positions.  Any picks spent on receivers, running backs, tight ends, backup quarterbacks, or defensive tackles will be completely vile.  Just because the Best and Titus picks turned out to be awful, don't try to rectify them at the expense of building your team.  We've neglected certain positions for far too long, and can't afford to do it anymore.  Plus, it's way easier to find free agent receivers and running backs than corners or offensive tackles.

If the Lions take yet another receiver because Titus hasn't worked out, it will be straight-up Millenesque.

I'm already getting frustrated in anticipation of what terrible pick they're going to make.  Let's get to the stinking week 13 picks:

Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4

Actual Line: ATL by 3

Coming off a loss, Drew Brees tends to dominate.  But that doesn't necessarily mean I'm taking the Saints.

Atlanta has the better defense, the better receivers by far, and the homefield advantage on a Thursday game. Plus they have a revenge factor after losing 2 weeks ago in New Orleans.  I know this is a "must-win" game for the Saints (just like the last 7 have been), but just because a team needs to win doesn't mean they will win.  Atlanta is just better.  And who is going to cover Julio Jones?  I'll take the Falcons 34-24.  

Jaguars (2-9) @ Bills (4-7)
Predicted Line: BUF by 4

Actual Line: BUF by 6

On the road, the Jags are 1-4 this year, but they've covered the spread in all five games.  They forced OT in 3 of those road games, all losses. And that was with the inferior Blaine Gabbert.  Chad Henne -- who in fairness has been overhyped during the past two weeks -- represents a marked improvement over Gabbert in every way. Now, even with no running game, the Jags are actually moving the ball.   Buffalo, meanwhile, kind of stinks at home, and they can't seem to score any points lately, plus they don't have anything to play for anymore.  I think this becomes a battle of field goals, and stays low scoring.  Bills 17-16.

Seahawks (6-5) @ Bears (8-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3.5
Actual Line: CHI by 4

The line is set at 4 on some sites, but other sites haven't posted a line until we know if Forte is going to play.  With the playoffs approaching and Chicago sitting pretty at 8-3,  my guess is Chicago rests Forte to make sure it doesn't get worse.  Michael Bush can do a decent job in his stead.

These are two teams I really hate and pick against most of the time, so I don't know.  Guess I'll take the Bears.  Seattle stinks on the road.  Chicago 20-13.

Colts (7-4) @ Lions (4-7)
Predicted Line: DET by 3

Actual Line: DET by 4.5

Well, now that the season is officially, officially over, it's a whole new dynamic.  Lions' players are no longer playing for the playoffs; they're playing for themselves.  In most cases, they're playing for their next contract.  
What difference does that make on the field? More selfish play?  More mental mistakes?  It can't be a good thing, right?

Indy is steadily rolling along, winning 5 of their last 6 despite scoring only about 21 points per game.  That's amazing considering Detroit usually scores 21 in the 4th quarter.

I expect Andrew Luck to have his first 3-TD game against Detroit and probably throw for about 350 yards as he continues to duel with RG3 for the most contested ROY I can ever remember.  Chris Houston isn't quite good enough to hang with Reggie Wayne, and we have nobody to cover Luck's various other weapons.  Despite the enormous talent disparity between these two teams (Detroit has a much better roster), I think Indy dictates the game offensively.  They are better coached (then again, who isn't?) and better led by a better quarterback.  Should be a couple of huge games for both Calvin and Wayne, but I think Indy comes out on top in another last-second heart-breaker.  Colts 36-30.  

Vikings (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5

Actual Line: GB by 9 

I love the Packers this week.  Something about a must-win game in Lambeau to bury a division foe. Plus, Greg Jennings is back.  He took a lot of time off to make all those Old Spice commercials, but he's finally back and Rodgers will put him to use immediately.  Green Bay 38-13.

Texans (10-1) @ Titans (4-7)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5

Actual Line: HOU by 6 

I actually kind of like the Titans as home underdogs.  Not to win, but perhaps to cover.  Houston didn't thoroughly impress me last week.  They just took advantage of a myriad of mistakes.   I'll probably regret it as Matt Schaub throws for 490 yards, but what the heck, Houston 27-24.

Panthers (3-8) @ Chiefs (1-10)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3

Actual Line: CAR by 3

Huge game in terms of the Draft.  Carolina really wants to keep winning, because a 6-10 season would save them a lot of embarrassment and might save the coach's job. KC wants to lose because they can't endure another season of Cassel/Quinn.  After this loss they can start printing Geno Smith jerseys.  Panthers 23-9.

49ers (8-2) @ Rams (4-6-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5

Actual Line: SF by 7.5

I mean, these teams tied 24-24 a few weeks ago in San Fran, so why should the Niners be favored by a touchdown on the road?  Plus, this Smith/Kaepernick thing has got to be a distraction.  The Rams are 7-3 ATS as underdogs this year.  I like those odds, especially at home.  Niners 24-20.

Patriots (8-3) @ Dolphins (5-6)
Predicted Line: NE by 10

Actual Line: NE by 9

I'm just saying, the Pats have scored 49, 59, 37, and 45 in their last four games ... while Miami has scored 24, 14, 3 and 20.    I'm not going to overthink it.  New England 41-24.

Cardinals (4-7) @ Jets (4-7)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 5.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 4.5


Weirdly, the Jets are my favorite pick this week.  Ryan Lindley (5 turnovers, 0 touchdowns) is starting his first road game.  And the Jets had 3 extra days to prepare for him.  I know he defeated Navy in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, but I still just don't trust him.   Jets 20-3.

Bucs (6-5) @ Broncos (8-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 7


Both teams are on fire since starting out 1-2.  Denver is especially hot, winning 6 straight and none of them have been particularly close.  But I'll take the points, just in case.  Broncos 31-27.

Browns (3-8) @ Raiders (3-8)
Predicted Line:  OAK by 3

Actual Line: OAK by 2

Who cares. Raiders by 3.

Bengals (6-5) @ Chargers (4-7)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1

Actual Line: CIN by 2

Even if the Chargers weren't imploding during the final days of the Norv Turner Era ... and even if their record was reversed and they were 7-4 and potentially playoff-bound ... I still would lean towards Cincinnati.  They've played some really solid defense lately, AJ Green looks unstoppable, and BenJarvus is coming off the best game of his career.  After a four-game losing streak, they're now on the heels of a four-game winning streak.

San Diego, on the other hand, is dealing with four injuries on defense, three in the secondary, and some on the offensive line.  Not to mention, their team is a mess, and they know the coach is walking dead.  I like Cincy by a wide margin.  Bengals 27-13.

Steelers (6-5) @ Ravens (9-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7

Actual Line: BAL by 6

Sounds like Ben is out again, and things couldn't have gone much worse for Charlie Batch last week (eight turnovers).  But I still like getting points in this rivalry.  Ravens 24-20.

Eagles (3-8) @ Cowboys (5-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 6.5

Actual Line: DAL by 10

So, the question is obviously whether or not the Eagles have quit on Andy Reid, and whether they'll even try to stay competitive over these next five games.  With the sudden release of Jason Babin (who had 18 sacks last season), they've obviously decided to make some major changes.  Pretty soon Michael Vick will be put on IR, along with Desean Jackson, and maybe LeSean McCoy.  They are clearly packing it in and giving Nick Foles an audition for 2013.

But, with all the animosity in the NFC East, shouldn't Philly at least be able to put forth some effort against a hated rival? Knocking Dallas out of the playoff picture would at least give Philly fans some satisfaction.

After a long, long, long, long, looooooong foot injury kept him out of the last 40 games and totally destroyed my hopes in fantasy football, DeMarco Murray should finally be back on the field for 3 plays until he gets hurt again. His presence might give Dallas a boost.  Maybe not a huge boost, but something.  He's a great player if he's healthy.

This seems like an awful lot of points to be giving in a division game. Dallas has only won 1 game by 10 or more this season.  But, that game was against ... the Eagles.  Hmm.  Probably won't happen twice. Let's say Cowboys 29-23.

Giants (7-4) @ Redskins (5-6)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3

Actual Line: NYG by 3 

I like the Redskins by 3. I'm falling head over heels for RG3.


Go Lions ....


Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Ramifications of a Lost Lions' Season ... plus week 12 picks

Last week:
7-7 ATS
11-3 straight up

Overall:
81-77-5 ATS (51.2%)
97-62-1 straight up (61.0%)

The Lions climbed into their own coffin when they started out 1-3.  The lid was shut and the nails driven in two weeks ago against Minnesota.  The coffin was buried underground with a crushing loss to Green Bay that sent us to 4-6, and now the season is over.

Detroit will not win its last 6 games.  That's a fact.  Not because the schedule is brutal; not because they aren't any good; not because of injuries.  Just because they're the Lions, and they aren't going to.

Even if they did, they probably wouldn't beat out Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas or Tampa for the wildcard . But it's not worth talking about. It's not going to happen. Let's be honest, we're not going to win tomorrow against the 9-1 freaking Texans, let alone 6 straight.

So the season that began with so much promise has been killed in its tracks.  We've gone from dreamer to downer, from hopeful to hopeless, from postseason hype to offseason gripe.  "Who will we face in the Super Bowl?" has been replaced with "Who do we draft in the 1st round?"

So ... the question, as always: who's fault is it?  Who do we blame?  Or, in other words, what are the ramifications of this wasted season?

Let's start with two obvious questions.

Will Jim Schwartz be fired? 
Answer: no. 

Will Stafford remain the starting quarterback?
Answer: yes. 


Usually, when a team has playoff aspirations and falls short with a 5-11 or 6-10 season, the coach and/or quarterback are in big trouble.  We'll certainly see at least 8 coaches fired (probably more) and at least 8 starting QBs replaced.  But Detroit won't be among them.  While plenty of blame for the lost season should be given to Schwartz and Stafford, they are also the cornerstones of the team.  To blow up the nucleus right now would be premature. (Though I, personally, wouldn't be upset)

So who will be fired? 

Something drastic has to change.  The Lions have lost too many close games to inferior opponents.  The secondary has been pathetic, the play-calling has been lousy, and Detroit is one of the most penalized teams in the league, again.

Scott Linehan, the offensive coordinator, is probably safe.  The Lions are 2nd in total yards, behind only New England.

That may appear impressive, until you realize we are a mediocre 15th in points scored.  How does that makes sense?  How do you move the ball 401 yards per game and only score 23 points?

Well .... consider these numbers:
  • 19th in yards per pass
  • 15th in yards per carry
  • 11th in third-down conversions
  • 6th in offensive penalties
  • 9th in turnovers
  • 7th in field goals 
  • 1st in dropped passes
Not all of those things are Scott Linehan's fault.  Most of them are Stafford's fault, or Mayhew/Lewand/Schwartz's fault for drafting the wrong players.  But certainly Linehan's playcalling hasn't been any good.  

If Linehan does get fired, all the NFL talking heads will say: "How can you fire the guy who coordinates the 2nd best offense in the league?!?!?!"   But as I wrote last week, it's not all about yards.  If it were, Detroit wouldn't be 4-6.  The offense doesn't simply need yards; it needs efficiency, intelligence, cohesiveness.  Linehan doesn't help in those areas.   But, all that said, his job is pretty much safe. 

What about the defense? 

Gunther Cunningham, the 66 year old grump who looks and acts like he's 96, has led an incompetent defense for several years, giving up ridiculous amounts of yardage to players who aren't all that dynamic.  It isn't completely his fault that the secondary lacks talent (again, poor drafting), but it is his job to teach the defense how to tackle and cover, and they can't do either.   But more than those things, it's been a problem of penalties and discipline.  Suh has regressed, VandenBosch is a liability, and Cliff Avril doesn't do anything unless it's third down.  The safeties are a joke.  The corners are a joke, except Chris Houston, who's hurt again.  In short, Cunningham stinks as a defensive coordinator, and I'm sick of his antics.

He's the guy who called DeAndre Levy "the best linebacker I've ever coached."   Really?  Didn't you coach Derrick Thomas in Kansas City?  Doesn't he have 126 career sacks?

He's the guy who called the Lions' secondary "one of the league's best?"  Really?  I mean, really????

I'm sick of his hyperbole, I'm sick of his temper tantrums, I'm sick of his old man demeanor.  Mostly, I'm sick of him not being able to teach guys how to defend.  Gunther needs to go.

But will he? 

Probably not.  He and Schwartz are buddies.  They probably are a package deal.

So, who the heck is gone? 

Well, you can start with the special teams coordinator. Danny Crossman.  The team can't cover kicks or punts, and Stephan Logan is pathetic, with the worst average on kick returns in the league (18.6).  Simply for  not recognizing Logan's inability to play, Crossman should be gone.  But does that solve any of our problems? Don't we need a bigger move than firing the special teams guy after a flop of a season?

What about Leshoure?  Should he be replaced in the backfield by someone who can actually gain more than 8 yards?

What about KVB?  Can we finally admit he's done, after two straight terrible years filled with trash talk and overpursuit and being out of position?

And the always popular question, can we finally move Backus to guard? Is Riley Reiff ready to start protecting the blindside?

Well, I think all of those questions are a yes.  But my opinion doesn't matter too much.  

I think the Lions need to cut their losses with Jahvid Best and find a new speed running back, and reduce Leshoure to a short-yardage back. His weed habit alone makes him a liability.   I think they need to make Lawrence Jackson or Willie Young a starter at DE, and allow VandenBosch to either retire or be a great leader on the bench.  And I think Backus can either play guard or enjoy play somez golf.  Riley Reiff is more than ready to play left tackle. Maybe move Backus to the right side.

On top of those things, the Lions need to invest in the cornerback position, whatever it takes.  They need to trade up in the 1st round and get the best CB prospect.  They need to trade Titus Young or Nick Fairley or DeAndre Levy or all three and land a real cornerback who can shut somebody down.  They need to actively fix their biggest weakness, or they'll repeat this crummy season again next year.

Also, they need to get rid of the rotten apples.  Again, that's Titus, Fairley and Leshoure.  They may be decent players, but their attitudes suck, and building a winning team requires leadership and cohesiveness.  You're not getting leadership from Schwartz (too maniacal and self-obsessed), Stafford (too self-absorbed), Calvin (too introspective), or Suh (borderline psychotic).  VandenBosch tries to lead, but he stinks on the field, and Delmas thinks the definition of leadership is fist fights.  The only good leader on the team might be Nate Burleson.    So cut the malcontents and build around guys who want to be part of a team.

So, what actually will happen?

Probably not much, unfortunately. I think the Lions' playoff appearance last season bought them all some time.  Schwartz and Stafford are safe for now, but a crappy 2013 will endanger both of them, especially Schwartz.  If Schwartz goes, both coordinators go.  Lewand and Mayhew could be gone too; they made a few nice moves early, but the last two offseasons have been ineffective at best.

As far as personnel, I don't see many changes happening.  At least not the important changes that need to happen.  Detroit will probably cut ties with Logan and probably move KVB to the bench, but I doubt they'll change much else.  I'd except Backus to remain at left tackle in 2013, with Reiff probably playing right tackle.  I think Pettigrew and Titus (who both suck tremendously) will remain integral in  the offense.   And I doubt they'll do enough to fix the secondary, other than bring in a few more castoffs with NCAA skills.

So, all that to say .... 

This season has been a disaster, and the Lions aren't going to do enough to make sure it doesn't happen next year.   Boo.

Here are the week 12 picks:

Thanksgiving: 

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5

Actual Line: HOU by 4

Too much talent.  JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, Connor Barwin, Duane Brown, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Jonathan Joseph, Matt Schaub... .  We are just mismatched everywhere you look.  Texans 34-26.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3

Actual Line: DAL by 3

My first reaction is to ride the momentum of RG3 and take the upset.  But Carr, Claiborne and Ware will make throwing the ball a nightmare for the rookie QB.  Can he and Alfred Morris move the ball on the ground enough to keep pace with Romo, who was sacked 7 times last week against Cleveland?  I think so.  Losing DeMarco Murray has been a blow to Dallas and caused them to become one-dimensional.   Redskins 30-27.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)
Predicted Line: TEBOW by 3

Actual Line: NE by 7.5 

Pats 37-6.

Lions Recap:  This was perhaps the most pitiful game in a very pitiful season.  The Lions blew at least 5 golden chances to win.  Everyone is culpable, but the biggest goats are:  Schwartz, VandenBosch, the refs, Pettigrew (that fumble!!), and even Hanson.  Great game by the linebackers, especially Durant, and also Fairley's best game of the season.  Reiff and Leshoure looked good too.  Stafford looked better than in past weeks, but still not great.   I'm not going to waste more time talking about this game.  It was just BRUTAL. On to the rest of the picks....

(2-1 ATS so far)

Raiders (3-7) @ Bengals (5-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 7.5
Actual Line: CIN by 9

The Carson Palmer Bowl is finally here!!

I wonder if Oakland regrets trading those 1st round picks for a QB coming off major surgery who is past his prime and perennially leads the league in pick-sixes?   It's tough to say ... anytime you can mortgage your franchise's future for a QB who throws 30 TDs and 27 INTs and has a record of 7-13, you pretty much have to do it.

I like the Bengals in a blowout.  The fans will make sure Palmer feels plenty of hatred-vibes.  Cincy 33-7.

Steelers (6-4) @ Browns (2-8)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 1

No Ben, no Leftwich.  That means it's Charlie Batch against Brandon Weeden!  Hide the women and children!!! Let's say Steelers 12-9 in a battle of field goals.

Bills (4-6) @ Colts (6-4)
Predicted Line: IND by 5
Actual Line: IND by 3

This game is Buffalo's last chance at the wildcard.  If they lose, it's almost certainly the end of Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo.  So, no pressure.  

For Luck, this game means almost as much - it's about securing the playoffs in his rookie season, and it's about keeping pace with RG3 (79% completion, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 113 rushing yards in his last two games - holy crap!) in what will become the most heated Rookie of the Year battle ever.  Consider that Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson and Russell Wilson are all having great years, and none of them have a chance against RG3 and Luck.

I like Indy, but I think it'll stay close with Buffalo fighting for their lives.   Colts 26-24.

Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (1-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 11

So, this line implies that it would be DEN by 17 if the game were at Milehigh Stadium?  Doesn't that seem a bit too high?  I mean, I know Peyton is on a tear and the Broncos have scored 30 or more five straight times, but division games tend to be tough-fought, even when one team sucks.

On the flip side, Von Miller has probably taken the lead in the D-MVP race.  He and Manning could potentially monopolize both MVP awards.  That would be pretty cool.  What the heck, I'll take the Broncos.   I'm sick of giving KC one more chance to prove they don't suck.  Denver 37-24.

Titans (4-6) @ Jaguars (1-9)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 4


Blaine Gabbert going on injured reserve is the best/worst thing that could happen to Jacksonville.  Best because now Chad Henne will play and give them a chance to win some games.   Worst because they might win some games and lose their chance at a top 3 pick and a franchise QB in the draft, which would force them to use a Henne/Gabbert/2nd round rookie QB combo in 2013, which would be terrible for everyone involved.   (It would be exactly like what happened to Miami last year, when Matt Moore's good second half of the season helped them escape an 0-7 start and they ended up drafting Tannehill instead of Luck or RG3).   Granted, there is no Luck or RG3 in the next draft, but Geno Smith might be pretty special.  

I like the momentum Henne and Justin Blackmon began last week, and I like them as a 4-point homedog.  Let's say Jags by 3, thus crushing my preseason pick of the Titans as a wildcard team, and giving KC a clear-road to the #1 pick.  

Vikings (6-4) @ Bears (7-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 2.5 (Cutler?)
Actual Line: CHI by 7


Cutler's status is still unknown, but based on this line, Vegas probably thinks he's going to play.  And, Percy Harvin was ruled out, which means the Bears entire defense can focus on AP.  But nonetheless, Chicago is not 7 points better than Minnesota.  Adrian Peterson has proven he can gain yards even with 8 men in the box.   Furthermore, the Bears O-line stinks.  Lastly, Jared Allen.

Vikings 27-23.

Falcons (9-1) @ Bucs (6-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 1
Actual Line: ATL by 1

Over the last four games, Tampa has been the better team.  Atlanta is still feeling pretty cocky following their 8-0 start.  This is a huge statement game for Tampa at home, and I think they'll catch Atlanta overconfident.  Bucs 34-26.  

Seahawks (6-4) @ Dolphins (4-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 1.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3


When Seattle is favored on the road in a 1pm game, take the points and don't think twice.  Miami 20-13.

Ravens (8-2) @ Chargers (4-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: BAL by 1

I really like the line in this game; not sure why it's so low.  Baltimore is gearing up for the playoffs, while San Diego hasn't beat anybody except KC since week 2.  The Bolts are busy thinking about who their next coach will be and booking offseason vacations.  Baltimore will destroy them and San Diego won't even fight back.  Might this be Norv's last game?   Ravens 44-10.

49ers (7-2-1) @ Saints (5-5)
Predicted Line: NO by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 1

Until they lose, I'm not picking against the Saints.  Especially at home when all they have to do is win by 1.

However, I'm a little nervous to pick against Colin Kaepernick, who may or may not be the starter on Sunday.  (Harbaugh is playing the Mystery QB Card to the last second, which is usually annoying, but smart in this instance, because New Orleans has to prepare defensively for 2 QBs with totally different styles). Kaepernick is frighteningly good, but there's no stopping the Saints right now.  Another 4 TDs for Brees.  33-31.

Rams (3-6-1) @ Cardinals (4-6)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 1

Remember Arizona's 4-0 start?   No, me neither.

Now, 6th round rookie Ryan Lindley (who looked ghastly last week) gets the start against a much-better-than-you-think St. Louis defense.  This is a dude who threw 48 interceptions in college, against such competition as Fresno St, Wyoming and UNLV.  He lost a game to Louisiana-Lafayette less than one year ago.  Now he has to match wits with Jeff Fisher?  And the Cardinals are favored?  Man, I wish Alie would let me bet real money sometimes.  Rams 23-13.

Packers (7-3) @ Giants (6-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3

There are an insane amount of road favorites this week.  Ten in all.  I'm surprised this isn't one of them.  Green Bay has won 8 of their last 9 if you don't count that silly Seattle game where the replacement refs gave the wrong team the victory.

(Speaking of which .... how about the two worst calls of all time -- Calvin's complete-the-process-bullshit, and Justin Forsett's get-tackled-then-get-up-and-run-80-yards-and-score-an-unchallengable-TD both going against Detroit in the past 5 years. What are the odds of that.)

I like the Packers in a major revenge game.  They have got to still be pissed about the 2011 playoffs.  I don't care that Clay, Jennings and Woodson will be out.  Rodgers will be in, and when you can get points with Aaron Rodgers, it's a very profitable spot.  Let's say Packers 27-23.  

Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line:  CAR by 3

In the Battle of Disappointing NFC Teams That Made Bold Predictions in July,  I like Cam Newton a lot more than Nick Foles.  Also, I think Philly officially gave up last week.  Panthers 24-14.


Go Lions I guess ....


Thursday, November 15, 2012

Week 11 Picks

Last week:
6-8 ATS
8-5 straight up (one tie)

Overall:
74-70-5 ATS  (51.3%)
86-59-1 straight up  (59.3%)

It was another strange week.  In the three primetime games, the average score was a paltry 18-10; in the 11 midday games, scoring absolutely abounded, with the winning team scoring at least 28 in all but one contest, and that contest was a 24-24 tie.

There were plenty of blowouts, some very unexpected, like Tennessee (6 point underdogs) whooping Miami by 34 on the road (glad I changed that pick) or Cincinnati (5 point underdogs) stomping the Giants.

What do we take away from those crazy contests?  Is Chris Johnson finally trustworthy?  Is Jake Locker a budding star? What about Andy Dalton? Is AJ Green the best receiver in the whole stinking league already? Is Miami terrible? Is Ryan Tannehill a bust?   Can anyone catch the Colts and Steelers for the wildcards? What about the Giants -- are they secretly bad, or are they tricking us into forgetting about them once again so they can be the first ever "Nobody Believed In Us" mini-dynasty?

Those were just two of the crazy week 10 games.  In other news, Baltimore racked up 55 points on Oakland despite being outgained in yards.   The Saints and Bucs proved that the NFC South is still a division to be reckoned with.   Dallas, New England and Denver showcased their high-octane offenses and scored in the high 30s.  The Eagles and Cardinals extended their losing streaks to 5 games, and Detroit, Carolina, and St. Louis were essentially eliminated from the NFC playoff picture, barring a miracle.  Also, four starting QBs were knocked out: Vick, Alex Smith, Cutler, and Roethlisberger.  All four could sit for week 11, and Vick could be done in Philly altogether.

In the AFC, Jacksonville and KC look like the future homes of QBs Geno Smith and Matt Barkley (likely draft picks #1 and #2), as they both ride hideous 6-game losing streaks.  The elite teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, while the Jets, Bill and Chargers have fallen apart and are already looking for new coaches.

In fact, as many as ten coaches could be fired before February.  Consider:

Andy Reid - Philly's "dynasty team" is 3-6 and Reid himself said before the season he would be fired if they finish 8-8 or worse.

Ron Rivera -  Carolina is 2-7 after a summer of Super Bowl hype. It's truly the GM's fault, not the coach's, but nonetheless, Rivera will be back to being a defensive coordinator soon.

Chan Gailey -  Chan is about to wrap up his third straight underachieving season with the Bills. Barring a blistering end to the season, he'll be gone.

Pat Shurmur - With Mike Holmgren (the guy who hired him) already gone, Shurmur will be mercifully allowed to finish the season, but won't be back unless the Browns miraculously win the rest of their games.

Norv Turner - He has a better chance at being President of the USA than being coach of the Chargers next year.

Romeo Crennel - It may or may not be his fault that the Chiefs are terrible.  But when a team is as bad as the Chiefs are, especially a team with quite a bit of talent, the coach has to go. That's the nature of today's NFL.

Rex Ryan - If he would just shut up, his job would probably be safe.  But all the hype and attention and trash talk really magnifies the Jets' struggles.  Plus his fate is linked with Mark Sanchez, which is a bad place to be.

Jason Garrett - Personally, I think he's a decent coach.  But if Dallas misses the playoffs for the third straight year, he's possibly the scapegoat.

Marvin Lewis - Ten seasons coaching the Bengals.  Zero playoff wins.  Could the run finally end?

Mike Mularkey - The Jags are the worst team in the NFL, but Mularkey didn't draft Blaine Gabbert, so he should be given more than one season.  But who knows.  If they are going to rebuild with Genoor Barkley, they may want a new coach to lead the new regime.

Dennis Allen - Another first year coach, so he's probably safe.  But Oakland has been awful, and Allen makes terrible decisions that show he's in over his head.

That's eleven.  And there are plenty of others (Jim Schwartz, for example) who aren't exactly earning contract extensions.  It's a pretty crazy league when more than half of the coaches who don't make the playoffs are canned.  But, the same thing happened last year.  It's a billion-dollar industry, so I'm not feeling bad for any of them.

Personally, I would be more than happy if the Angry Era of Jim Schwartz ended in Detroit and both his clueless coordinators went with him.   Maybe we could  swoop in and grab Reid as the new O-Coordinator or Rivera as the D-Coordinator or something like that.  Some proven winners would be a nice change.

Anyway ... here are the week 11 picks:

Dolphins (4-5) @ Bills (3-6)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1

Actual Line: BUF by 3

Fred Jackson is out with a concussion, which actually helps the Bills, because CJ Spiller leads the NFL with 7.3 YPC and the Bills played their two best games of the season when Fred was sidelined (granted, against Cleveland and KC).   Miami ranks 5th against the run, but they gave up 177 rushing yards last week to Tennessee, and they seem to be deteriorating defensively.  That should make for an interesting matchup.

Miami's gameplan is simple: keep the score low.  They usually succeed offensively, as they've exceeded 21 points only twice.  But defensively, they go up and down, depending on the week.  Against the turnover-happy Bills in cold weather, it should be safe to take the points.  Especially on a Thursday, when scoring is notoriously limited.  Bills win, 13-12.

Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)
Predicted Line: ATL by 16.5

Actual Line: ATL by 10 

How could this game possibly be close?

Falcons offense: If Patrick Peterson is guarding Roddy White, throw to Julio Jones.  If Peterson guards Jones, throw to White.  If Peterson somehow guards both guys, throw to Gonzalez.   Build an early lead. Then run the ball.

Falcons defense: put 5 guys on Fitzgerald, completely ignore the nonexistent running back, and send pass rush at horrible O-line.  Your early lead will force Kolb to throw, and you'll end up running an INT (or two) back for 6.

I just don't see it going any other way.  Especially in Atlanta.    I'll say Falcons go up 28-0 at halftime and win 45-10.

Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)
Predicted Line: DAL by 8.5

Actual Line: DAL by 8 

Cowboys are way too unstable to be laying 8 points.  Even against Cleveland.  I've learned my lesson with them too many times.  Dallas 27-20.

*EDIT - Joe Haden is not going to play.  In that case, I should probably take the Cowboys +8.  Maybe 27-13.   Ughh, I'm probably going to regret that.

Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 3.5


Remember all those 3rd downs, where Matt Stafford showed no urgency to complete a pass or move the chains, and instead willfully took a sack or threw the ball out of bounds?  Remember the times it was 3rd and 8 and he threw a useless 4 yard dumpoff to Pettigrew or Joique Bell, realizing that it had no chance of moving the chains, but figuring it was better than taking a risk?  Remember all those fricking plays in the red zone where he didn't even try to loft the ball to Calvin, but instead threw the ball out of bounds because a field goal is just as good as a touchdown?

Well, the reason all those plays were important ... is because now we're 4-5 and we have to play the Packers, then the Texans, then the Packers again two weeks later.  Anybody ready to be 4-9?  And end up 5-11?   Because that's our fate.  All because we couldn't beat the Vikings, Titans, and Vikings again.  Those were three games we should have won.  And even though the secondary and coaching have been abysmal  and even though the running backs have been lousy, and even though Pettigrew is the worst football player in the universe and Stephan Logan is a disgrace and the receivers drop way too many passes and the O-line isn't great and the D-line leads the league in penalties, I still am more than willing to place the blame squarely on Matthew Stafford.

I know Stafford hasn't jumped offsides 14 times like Nick Fairley, I know he doesn't give up 70 yard touchdowns passes to wide open 3rd string receivers like our entire secondary, and I know he doesn't make the decision to run on 2nd and 10 like Scott Linehan ... but it's his inability to execute and "make plays" (pardon the cliche) that has the Lions 4-5, instead of 7-2, where they should be if they beat the teams they should have beat.  And when you consider that 3 of our 4 wins were miracle comebacks, we could easily be 1-8.  We've played a lot more like a 1-8 team than a 7-2 team.  And by "we," I mostly mean our quarterback.

About 6 weeks ago I said that I was ready for Shaun Hill.  I've held off on saying that week after week because Stafford is, after all, our franchise quarterback, the guy who threw for 5,000 yards in a year, the second fastest QB to throw for 10,000 yards, blah blah blah blah blah .....

Perhaps I'm being too critical, but I'm not that impressed by yards.  I look at QB rating, turnovers, completion percentage, yards per attempt, red zone TD percentage, and third down completion percentage. Those are the stats that help you win games.  I recently heard an interview with Ben Roethlisberger where they rattled off some stats about his TDs and yards, and he said the same thing "The three most important stats for a QB are completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 3rd down conversion percentage."  I couldn't have agreed more.

In those areas, Stafford isn't a top 15 quarterback at all.  He's barely in the top 20.

In YPA, he's below 4 rookies, including Tannehill who isn't any good.

In completion percentage, he's behind Dalton and Ponder.

In  QB rating, he's sandwiched between Kolb and Bradford.

On third downs, he's comparable to Vick and Cassel.

So while his yardage marks make him the contemporary Joe Montana or Dan Marino, I question if that's more of a result of having thrown the most passes in the NFL two years in a row. (Also, should be noted he plays with that Calvin Johnson guy.)

Funny thing is, Detroit leads the NFL in passing attempts, but still manages to run an offense that's way too conservative.  They run the ball and kick field goals in the first half, and consequently they've trailed at halftime in 8 of their 9 games this season (ridiculous!), which causes them to throw like maniacs in the 4th quarter.

Stafford's average game statistically has been solid:  27/43 for 302 yards.  But I think it's safe to approximate that the average 1st half is 7/15 for 90 yards, and the average second half is 20/28 for 212 yards.

Heck, look at the Lions scoring by quarter this year:
1st quarter -  28 points
2nd quarter - 47 points
3rd quarter - 20 points
4th quarter - 121 points

And if you throw out the one good game Detroit has played all year (Jacksonville), it's a sum of 74 points in the first 3 quarters compared to 111 in the 4th quarter.

What the heck.

So what does this bizarre situation tell us about our Lions?

Detroit is the master of scoring garbage time points?
The coaching is terrible and doesn't make adjustments?
The playcalling sucks?
Stafford doesn't have any urgency until the 4th quarter?
Stafford is unflappable?

I say yes, to all of the above.

I'm taking the Packers, but I'm taking the points just in case.  Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings are out.  I'm sure their replacements will have terrific games, but anytime you're missing two stud players and are on the road, it's probably worth taking the 3 points.  Packers 30-27.

*Wait, I've got one last rant about the Lions....

I'm sick and tired of everybody saying the Lions secondary has all these injury problems.  Everyone is using that stupid excuse on every TV, radio and website.  It's not a legitimate excuse.  When your week 1 secondary is a quartet of castoffs who were cut from teams that aren't any good, and those guys get hurt and you replace them with other guys who suck, and this whole problem is because the front office drafts sexy positions instead of drafting for NEED once in a while, it's not because of the injuries that your secondary sucks.  Our perfectly healthy secondary gave up 378 passing yards to Jake Locker.   If all your defensive backs in Madden were a 62 out of 100, and they all got hurt and you replaced them with a bunch of 61s, would injuries really be the problem?

You know what, screw Detroit, I'm taking the Packers to cover.  37-20.

Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)
Predicted Line: CIN by 2

Actual Line: CIN by 3.5

Beware the Arrowhead homedog!   Cincy just played 3 straight at home and they're ready for a loss on the road.  Plus, KC is not as bad as their record.  They have some talent.  Chiefs 22-17.

Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 2.5

Actual Line: STL by 3.5

Man, I hate ties.  They screw everything up.  Why not just play a 2nd overtime?

Picking Jets games is like going to the circus and betting on which clown is the best juggler.  It's a stupid waste of time, but at least you get to see some clowns.   They could win by 50, lose by 50, or anything in between.  The Rams are pretty consistent, they've been competitive against everyone against New England, but I don't know about this line.  I'll say Rams by 2.

Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 4

Actual Line: WAS by 4

The Eagles have got to be pretty close to quitting on their season.  Five-game losing streak, 2 straight blowouts, injured QB, dead-duck coach.  Even with veteran leaders like Asomugha and Cole, I can't see them putting up much effort.

Washington, on the other hand, still believes they can make the playoffs.  Coming off 3 tough losses, they caught a bye at the right time and finally have RG3 at 100%.  He should have a terrific game, despite his lack of receiving weapons.

But the story of this game is Nick Foles, who will get the start in place of Vick.

One of the nice things about being an NFL Draft junkie is that when a guy like Foles suddenly becomes a starting QB, I already know a little bit about him.  I know he's very tall, not super mobile, throws a monster deep ball, but lacks accuracy and decision making ability.  I know he's a good fit for Philly because of the downfield threats with Jackson and Maclin's speed, but I think he'll struggle against NFL pass rushes and the intelligence of NFL secondaries.  He'll probably throw 1 or 2 successful deep balls in this game, but he'll likely heave at least 1 interception as well.  He has a long way to go to prove he can be a starting QB in the NFL, but he has the size and arm to be the next Josh Freeman or even Ben Roethlisberger.  He just needs to develop the footwork, intelligence and accuracy, otherwise he'll be the next John Skelton or John Navarre.

I could certainly see this game ending up pretty close. Philly's bad offensive line will be relived to see Washington's weak pass rush, and McCoy should be able to make Foles' life a lot easier.  But with Foles on the road against a division rival and the potential of Philly completely giving up and quitting on their coach, I feel better taking Washington to cover.  Let's say 33-23.

Bucs (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)
Predicted Line: TB by 1

Actual Line: TB by 2

Did you know Tampa has the league's #1 rushing defense, in terms of both yards per game and yards per attempt?  It's probably safe to say Gerald McCoy has surpassed Ndamukong Suh as the best defensive tackle from the 2010 draft.  How sad.   But one of the biggest reasons for Tampa's stifling defense has been rookie OLB Lavonte David, who has a league-high 30 tackles in the past two weeks.   You probably don't remember my final mock draft from April, but I was hoping the Lions would take Lavonte with pick 54, if he were available.  I watched enough highlights of him at Nebraska to be convinced he would be an NFL stud.

Well, he was available at pick 54, but instead Detroit took Ryan Broyles, who is a nice 3rd string receiver but certainly not a 2nd round pick.  If the Lions really did want to take the best player available, as they claim they do, they would have taken Lavonte David.  Instead, they tried to be cute and take Broyles.  Well, David just might be making a push for Defensive Rookie of the Year and might be a Pro Bowler within a couple years.  If Ryan Broyles ever makes the Pro Bowl, I'll run through the mall naked on Black Friday.

Along with their #1 rushing defense, Tampa has the league's #32 passing defense, at 321 yards per game.  But this is deceiving.  Tampa ranks 3rd in the league with 15 INTs, and has some solid playmakers in the secondary, namely Mark Barron and Ronde Barber.  Trading Aqib Talib away for peanuts may not have been very smart, and signing Eric Wright certainly wasn't smart, but the main problem with their secondary is caused by their lack of a pass rush.  Adrian Clayborn's injury has been tough for them, and DaQuan Bowers hasn't panned out yet.

All that to say ... I still believe in Cam Newton, and Steve Smith should have a nice game.  I like the homedog Panthers in a shootout, 38-34.

Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)
Predicted Line:   Hmmm ... let's say HOU by 17.5

Actual Line: HOU by 15.5 

If Jones-Drew were playing, I'd consider taking the points.  But he's not.  Houston 27-0.

Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)
Predicted Line: NO by 3

Actual Line: NO by 5.5

Are the Saints the only team to ever start 0-4 and then five games later be favored by almost 6 on the road? Probably so.  I'll take them anyway.  Brees is on fire, the Raiders still don't have McFadden.  NO 31-16.

Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5

Actual Line: DEN by 8

If Denver wins, I think Norv Turner will be fired within 24 hours.  That's my hunch.  And I think Norv knows this, which will part of the reason why Denver wins. Also, Peyton Manning.   Broncos by 13.

Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7

Actual Line: NE by 9 

I love being right. And while I wasn't the only one who thought Andrew Luck would be a stud, I was pretty adamant about it.  A lot of people forget, he would have been the #1 pick in 2011 if he declared.  Remember when he stayed in school to get his architecture degree, everyone said it was so risky, he might get hurt, blah blah blah.  Well, he used that year to improve, to play a pro style offense, and to basically enter the NFL without any learning curve.  He was a top 15 quarterback the day he was drafted.  He was a top 10 quarterback within 4 weeks.  And by week 11, he has surpassed the previous three #1 overall picks: he's already a better quarterback than Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, and Sam Bradford.

The scary thing is - so is Robert Griffin.  

But Luck is better than Griffin, maybe not in explosiveness or excitement, but in consistency and arm strength and for the mere fact that he's much less likely to get hurt.  Back in May, I ranked the quarterbacks, and had Luck at 15 before he played a single game.  Now, if I redid that list, Luck would leap past several quarterbacks, including Vick, Flacco, Cam, Stafford and Rivers.

I would still put Rodgers and Brady at 1 and 2, with Brees, Matt Ryan, and Peyton rounding out the top 5, and then Eli and Ben at 6 and 7.  Then, it's probably Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Tony Romo in the top 10.

Then ... Schaub, Flacco, Rivers ... Cutler, Stafford, Cam .... Freeman, Dalton, Ponder, Locker, Bradford... Alex Smith, Mike Vick, Russell Wilson ... Fitzpatrick, Kolb, Sanchez, Palmer ... Tannehill, Gabbert, Cassell, Weeden.    That's 32.  I guess Tebow squeezes in somewhere between Fitzpatrick and Kolb.

So anyway, I'm taking the Patriots to win, given the Colts terrible roster, but I certainly think Andrew Luck can keep the score close.  Maybe Aqib Talib shuts down Reggie Wayne in his first game as a Patriot, but maybe Andrew Luck finds someone else to throw to.  Pats 27-23.

Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3.5 (Roethlisberger out)
Actual Line:  BAL by 3.5


93% of the betting is on Baltimore, so Vegas must be thinking they are awfully sneaky with this line so low.  What's the reason - is Byron Leftwich going to be better than people think?  Is Pittsburgh's defense finally healthy?  Will it be the Heinz Field factor that keeps this game close?

Back in 2010 when Ben had to sit for 4 games, the Steelers went 3-1, and the loss was a home game against Baltimore. Final score: 17-14.  A lot has changed in two years, but Mike Tomlin, Troy Polamalu, and 65,000 screaming, stupid Pittsburgh fans will still be there, so I expect the same result.  17-14 Ravens.

Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 5.5 (Cutler and Smith both out?) 

Actual Line: SF by 5 

Sounds like Alex Smith might play, and Jay Cutler definitely won't.  Regardless of who the quarterbacks are, I'm all over San Fran for this game.  I'll say Niners 23-13. And if Smith sits, I think Colin Kaepernick has a great game.  That dude can play.  Jason Campbell, I'm not so sure.




That's it for now.  GO Lions!!!

Also,  Torii Hunter!!   Hitting in the 2-hole ahead of Miggy, Prince and V-Mart.  That's an amazing top 5.  I can't wait to see how Leyland mismanages that roster!


Thursday, November 8, 2012

Week 10 Picks

Great week last week: 10-4 ATS and 11-3 straight up.

68-62-5 ATS on the season and 78-54 straight up.  Finally above .500.

Also, the Lions played their best game of the season by far, granted against a horrendous opponent.  But a blowout win on the road is a blowout win on the road, and coupled with losses by Minnesota, Arizona and the entire NFC East, I'll take it.  The Wildcard is within striking distance -- however, we pretty much need to beat the Packers twice to have any hope for the playoffs. That, or the Bears need to lose about 5 in a row.

Here are my week 10 picks:

Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7) - Thursday night
Predicted Line: IND by 2

Actual Line: IND by 3.5

With Jones-Drew out, the Jags are pretty much an NCAA team, especially on offense. Why does Justin Blackmon suck so much?  Receivers taken in the top 10 are supposed to be gamechangers, not pedestrians.  

They still have a solid defense against the run (not last week, but usually), but as we saw last week, Indy doesn't need to run.  They are currently tied for 4th in the NFL in passing attempts. If they stick to the same gameplan they used against Miami (24 runs, 48 passes), they'll win this game big. Andrew Luck just set the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie (433), so he should have some momentum going.

There are some pretty decent trends that would lead me to choose Jacksonville ... homedogs rarely lose ATS two weeks in a row, and home teams tend to cover on Thursdays, and there's a good chance I'm going to want those 3 points given the fact that every Thursday game has been nothing but field goals.   However, I'm going with Andrew Luck once again, and saying the Colts win their 4th straight game, 27-16.

*In fact, as a testament to my faith in Luck, I just dropped Phillip Rivers, leaving Luck as my only fantasy QB.  Which probably doesn't matter, considering my team is 1-8.  But still.

Giants (6-3) @ Bengals (3-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4

Actual Line: NYG by 4.5

Remember when Cincy was 3-1 with an easy schedule coming up?  Now they're about to be 3-6.  Yikes.  Giants, the best road team in the league, win by 14.  Eli Manning, by the way, has a mere 8 fantasy points in his last two games.  I'm thinking he'll top that within 5 minutes of this game, and end up scoring 30+ for all the goofballs who bench him.

Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3.5

Actual Line: MIA by 6

Don't like laying 6 points with Ryan Tannehill and a bunch of bad receivers, but I don't see the Titans scoring more than 10 or 13 against Miami's tough defense.  Maybe a big game for Reggie Bush. Fins 23-6.

*EDIT: I'm thinking Jake Locker's return might provide a boost for the Titans.  If nothing else, he can keep plays alive with his feet.  I still want Miami, but not I'll say the Titans cover and keep it close.

Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (5-4)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2.5

Actual Line: DET by 1

I'm pretty impressed with the Lions two game winning streak.  The Vikings, on the other hand, have lost two straight, neither of which were to great teams.  While Adrian Peterson is rushing for 8.3 yards per carry over his past 3 games (!!!), Christian Ponder has very surprisingly declined, and declined at an alarming rate.

Here are Ponder's QB ratings in order this season:  105, 114, 94, 71, 87, 83, 35, 74, 37.

His completion percentage has plummeted, he threw for less than 70 yards in two of his last three games, and Vikings fans are starting to beg for Joe Webb.

I can't decide if the Lions are catching the Vikings at the perfect time, or if Ponder is just in a mini-slump and Detroit will go into the game overly confident and end up playing like crap on both sides of the ball, kind of like they did the first 4 weeks of the season.

Chances are, with the way AP is running the ball, Detroit won't have a repeat of last week where they go up early and never feel threatened.  Most likely, Minnesota goes up 14-3 early thanks to Detroit's lack of urgency on offense and overpursuit on defense plus a special teams TD, then it's 17-10 at halftime, and Detroit spends the whole 3rd quarter trying to get Leshoure going to no avail, before finally going to Calvin in the 4th and pulling out an improbable 27-24 win with 5 seconds left.  That seems to be the Schwartz and Linehan gameplan.  Blowing this game could cost be troublesome for Ponder and Frazier, in terms of keeping their jobs.  It'll also give Detroit some serious hopes at reclaiming their shot at the playoffs.  Go Lions!

*EDIT:  Percy Harvin is out.  My pick stays the same, but I feel a lot more confident now that Christian Ponder has nobody to throw to.  Let's put 10 in the box!

Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 13

Actual Line: NE by 11

Last time they played, the Bills allowed 45 points.  In the second half.

I expect more of the same, especially with the Pats coming off a bye. New England 34-14. I may have missed my prediction on 19-0, but I still like the Pats as my Super Bowl pick. Especially after they just heisted Aqib Talib from the Bucs.

Anytime you can add one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the league to a terrible secondary and it only costs you a 4th round pick, you have to consider that a win.  It's no surprise the Bucs were looking to rid themselves of Talib, who has been suspended multiple times and barely missed a jail sentence for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.  But his suspension ends next week, and Bill Belichick may be the only guy who could turn this fool around.  If it pans out, they just landed a cornerback who can lockdown Demaryius Thomas or Andre Johnson in the playoffs.

Falcons (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)
Predicted Line: ATL by 5

Actual Line: ATL by 3 

A lot of people are trying to be cute with this pick, but the Saints are too much of a mess on D, and Matt Ryan has simply outplayed Drew Brees all season.  Also, Darren Sproles is out, which significantly changes the Saints' offensive identity.  Falcons 35-23.

Chargers (4-4) @ Bucs (4-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 2 

Actual Line: TB by 3

Does anyone else remember the NFL Draft, when Doug Martin and David Wilson were considered nearly identical prospects?  Same size, same speed, same college stats.  I could never remember which was which.  Martin was picked 31st by Tampa Bay, Wilson went 32nd to the Giants.

Fast forward 8 months, and David Wilson has 17 carries, 1 catch, 91 total yards, 1 TD, and 1 fumble in his NFL career.  He's been demoted to 3rd string.

Martin put up 25 carries, 4 catches, 272 total yards, and 4 TDs last week alone, in one of the single greatest games ever by a running back.   He's over 1,000 total yards this season, he's become an elite fantasy back, he hasn't fumbled once in 174 touches, and he would be Rookie of the Year if not for those pesky quarterbacks...

So in other words, it looks like Tampa made the right pick at #31.

Sidenote: Martin's nickname is The Muscle Hamster, which might be the dumbest nickname I've ever seen. Even Martin hates it.  But I'm taking the Bucs and the Hamster Momentum.  Plus, the Chargers are falling apart, and I hate Phillip Rivers.  Tampa 21-16.

Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 4


Denver is on a roll, but I actually like the points.  They call him Backdoor Cam for a reason.  Broncos 33-31.

Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2)
Predicted Line: BAL by 12

Actual Line: BAL by 9

No McFadden in this game, and Oakland stinks on the East Coast.  I still don't love the Ravens with Webb and Lewis out, but they should be able to cover.  Baltimore 27-14.

Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5

Actual Line: SEA by 6

The Jets are almost as unpredictable as they are annoying.  6 points seems too many for a rookie QB, although this could easily be a shutout.  I have no idea.  Let's say Seahawks by 3.

Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 2

Actual Line: DAL by 1.5

This might be the most hype and media attention ever given to a game between 3-5 teams.   I think the Cowboys are less of a mess right now, and the Eagles don't have an answer to DeMarcus Ware.  But this is definitely in the coin flip category.  I'll take the home team to be safe.  Philly by a field goal.

Rams (3-5) @ 49ers (6-2)
Predicted Line: SF by 11.5

Actual Line: SF by 11.5

Despite the 3-5 record, I actually think Jeff Fisher would be my choice for Coach of the Year through 9 weeks.  The Rams should have beat the Lions and should have beat Miami, and they nearly beat Green Bay. They could easily be 5-3.  And from a talent standpoint, they should be 0-8.  Fisher has done more with less than any other coach.  Except for the beatdown in London against the Pats, St. Louis has been competitive in every game.  Also, they get Danny Amendola back in this game. So all that to say, I'll take the points.    Niners 26-18.

Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)
Predicted Line: HOU by 2

Actual Line: CHI by 1

After this beatdown, people are going to be saying "How the heck were the Bears 7-1?"

The answer: a super easy schedule, a lucky-ass win against Carolina, a game against Detroit in which Detroit didn't show up, and a whole bunch of defensive touchdowns.

I like Houston 34-3. Let's hope either Cutler or Forte gets hurt so the Bears can miss the playoffs again.

Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 13.5

Actual Line: PIT by 12.5

No Antonio Brown, no Mendenhall/Dwyer, no Polamalu.  Does it matter?  Brown has underachieved, Isaac Redman is running the ball just fine, and for the first time ever, the Steelers secondary is thriving without the furry Polynesian.  Roethlisberger is playing his best football in a long time and the offensive line has gone from terrible to very solid, while the defense has quietly been the best in the league, despite playing against some pretty good offenses.   So does that mean I'm laying the points?  Against Matt Cassel, who leads the NFL in turnovers? I sure am.  Steelers 27-10.

Mehmet Okur retired today.  10 years in the NBA.  Turkish Tornado.   What a guy.

Go Lions.