Week 4 picks

Week three recap:
11-5 straight up
9-6-1 against the spread

Overall:
32-16 straight up
23-22-3 against the spread

What happened in week 3 -- The Chiefs, Dolphins and Bears became the surprising 3-0 teams, with the Saints, Pats, Broncos and Seahawks being less surprising but equally undefeated.   The Jags fell to 0-3, which is to be expected, but the Giants, Vikings, Redskins, Bucs, and Steelers also saw stayed winless. Really, all five of those teams had realistic playoff hopes which are now in the burning dumpster.

Green Bay and San Francisco shockingly fell to 1-2, Josh Freeman was benched indefinitely for rookie Mike Glennon, Aldon Smith left the NFL for rehab, Nate Burleson broke his arm in a car accident (idiot), and Peyton Manning looks like he might be in store for the best season any QB has ever had.  Lots of other stories and injuries and idiosyncrasies, but let's just jump into the picks.

Week Four picks

49ers (1-2) @ Rams (1-2)
Predicted Line:  SF by 4
Actual Line:  SF by 3

It sure looks like this line is too low at first glance, but then consider the injuries:  San Fran is without Aldon Smith, Vernon Davis, and maybe Patrick Willis.  That's a pretty impressive list of injured players, and then when you consider their ineffective running game and Kaepernick's apparent decline, this spread starts to make sense.   Especially when you consider that the Rams took the Niners to overtime both times they played last year, resulting in a Rams' win and a tie.  Jeff Fisher does know how to coach against these guys.

But, I'm a believer in sticking to what you believe, and I believe in Colin Kaepernick, and I won't let two games dissuade me from that.  If this line were a few points higher, I'd lean toward the Rams, but 3 points is a nice bargain.   49ers 27-23.

Bears (3-0) @ Lions (2-1)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 1.5
Actual Line:  DET by 3

Stafford is better than Cutler, Calvin is better than Marshall, and Bush+Bell is pretty close to a constantly banged-up Forte.  Both offensive lines struggle, though the Bears are a little better.

The Lions have the superior defensive line, but the Bears are much better in the back 7.

As far as talent, these teams are closely matched. Detroit probably has the edge because of Calvin and Suh, the two best players in this game, and because of a slight QB edge.  But if it comes down to coaching, depth and execution, the Bears are clearly the better team.  This should be one of those back-and-forth games that the Lions either escape with a miracle or blow it with a stupid penalty. I'm thinking the latter.  Bears 26-24.

Steelers (0-3) vs. Vikings (0-3) in London
Predicted Line:  PIT by 1.5
Actual Line:  PIT by 3

The case against Minnesota: lousy team with a lousy coach starting their backup QB against a desperate team with a great coach.

The case for Minnesota:  are we sure Matt Cassel isn't a significant upgrade over Christian Ponder?

Vikings have the best player in the game (AP), a matchup nightmare with Jared Allen, and the strange possibility of Cassel sparking a breakout game for Kyle Rudolph and/or Cordarelle Patterson.   Steelers really have nothing to be excited about - no running game, no blocking, Roethlisberger going through the motions, and a defense of has-beens.

Speaking of Roethlisberger, his career arc is a amazingly similar to the original Big Ben, referring, of course, to the afroed superstar who played for the Pistons.  Both guys had a unique and defining trademark (help-side defense for Wallace; lucky-ass plays on 3rd and long with 2 minutes left for Roethlisberger), and both guys had a severe and unmaskable set of weaknesses (any semblance of an offensive game for Wallace; accuracy, decision-making and decency as a human being for Roethlisberger).   Both guys relied on great teammates and the Big Ben moniker to carve out mini-legacies and play in a few championship games, and were even considered Hall of Fame players in their primes. Then, as they entered their early 30s, both guys were utterly exposed as the mediocre players their fan bases always knew they were.  

So in other words, don't be surprised if Roethlisberger ends up 3rd string on the Raiders before long, a pathetic shell of his former self.

I'm taking the Vikings in a bit of a shocker, 20-16.  

Ravens (2-1) @ Bills (1-2)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 3
Actual Line:  BAL by 3.5

I'm all about the Ravens as the most underrated defending champs I've ever seen.  That defense is seriously good.  And Ray Rice's backup, Bernard Pierce, might be better than Ray Rice.  And Buffalo might be without Mario Williams, Jarius Byrd, Stephon Gilmore, AND Leodis McKelvin for this game.  That's 4 of their best defensive players.  Ravens win 24-20.

Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (1-2)
Predicted Line: CIN by 4.5
Actual Line: CIN by 4

Joe Haden against A.J. Green is the only reason to care about this game.  That is a heavyweight matchup.  Because of Haden's potential to shut down Green, this could be low-scoring, so I'll take the points.  Bengals 16-13.

Colts (2-1) @ Jags (0-3)
Predicted Line:  IND by 9.5
Actual Line:  IND by 9

Another homedog that I don't know what to do with.  Jacksonville is an abomination, but 9 points for a road favorite with a lousy defense.  I mean, the Colts defense is crap, right?  And Justin Blackmon and MJD are back.

So I should take the points and say Colts by 6 or something. But I just keep siding with Andrew Luck. The dude's unstoppable.  Heck, it worked for me last week.  Colts 27-13.

Seahawks (3-0) @ Texans (2-1)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 5
Actual Line:  SEA by 3

A fourth straight homedog.  There's just no way you can pick against the Seahawks right now, the way Russell Wilson is playing.  And that stupendous freaking defense.   Seattle 28-13.

Cardinals (1-2) @ Bucs (0-3)
Predicted Line:  ARZ by 2.5
Actual Line:  TB by 2.5

So the Mike Glennon Era finally commences!  It's about time!

Just kidding.

We've got Revis shutting down Fitzgerald, Glennon shutting down himself, and a pretty good Cardinals defense putting 10 in the box against Doug Martin.  Sounds like a battle of field position.  Arizona has the league's best punt returner, and Tampa seems to hate their coach, so I guess I'll take a fifth straight road team to win straight up.  Cardinals 13-6.

Giants (0-3) @ Chiefs (3-0)
Predicted Line:  KC by 4.5
Actual Line:  KC by 5

Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin have coached against each other like 30 times.  So that's one reason to think this game will be close.  Plus, the underdogs have the better quarterback, which is another logical reason to take the points.  And aren't we overdue for one of those 12 catch, 230 yard games for Victor Cruz?  I don't know, call me crazy, but Giants 30-27.  Watch the G-men claw their way back into the playoff picture.

Jets (2-1) @ Titans (2-1)
Predicted Line:  TEN by 3.5
Actual Line:  TEN by 3.5

I continue to understand nothing about these two teams.  Guess I'll take the points at least.  Titans 23-20.

Cowboys (2-1) @ Chargers (1-2)
Predicted Line:  SD by 1
Actual Line:  DAL by 2

Our sixth homedog of the week, but this is the least logical one.  Dallas is not trustworthy, on the road or anywhere.  HOWEVER, my DeMarco Murray crush appears to be well-founded, and his injury problems appear to be overstated.  If he keeps running like he's been running, he's got a chance to be the best running back in the league not named Adrian Peterson.   For that reason, and that reason alone, I'm stupidly taking the Cowboys +2.   Let's say 26-23.

Redskins (0-3) @ Raiders (1-2)
Predicted Line:  WAS by 3
Actual Line:  WAS by 3.5

Make that seven homedogs.  Unprecedented.

Washington sure looks awful, and Terrellee Pryor looks feisty, but like I said about the San Fran game, you've got to stick with what you know, even if it doesn't seem to make any sense.  And I know two things:  RG3 is not as bad as he's looked so far, and Oakland is barely a NCAA roster.   So I'm giving those 3.5 points, and I'm actually thinking the Redskins go on the road and finally snap out of their funk, winning something like 27-21.

Eagles (1-2) @ Broncos (3-0)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 10
Actual Line:  DEN by 10.5

I have to agree with Walterfootball.com, who says that the 2013 Broncos need to be treated like the 2007 Patriots, meaning they should be favored by around 20 no matter who they play.  That offense is going to score at least 35 points every game.  And against this ghastly Philly defense .... the sky's the freaking limit.  Let's say Denver 49-35.

Patriots (3-0) @ Falcons (1-2)
Predicted Line:  NE by 3
Actual Line:  ATL by 2

Brady is 16-7 against the spread as an underdog in his career.  That's 70%, which is good enough for me.  Plus all those Falcons injuries .... Pats 24-23.

Dolphins (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)
Predicted Line:  NO by 8.5
Actual Line:  NO by 6.5

The Cameron Wake injury should have bumped this spread up a few points.  It's gonna be another massive Drew Brees game, and while Ryan Tannehill has far surpassed my expectations for him, he's not going to be able to keep pace.   Saints 34-27.

Alright.   Go Lions.
 
(Picked the road team in 11 of 15 games ... this is gonna be a brutal week)

Week Three Picks

Week 2 recap:
10-6 straight up
7-8-1 against the spread

Overall:
21-11 straight up
14-16-2 against the spread

A big week for underdogs.  They were covering, they were winning straight up, they were showing that nobody really knows anything in week 2.  Excluding majestic performances by Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning (who both should be considered exceptions to normality this season), underdogs went 9-4-1 against the spread, and home underdogs went 3-0, including 2 straight up victories.  I was right about the Titans and Chargers being better than expected, and now you can throw the Jets, Bucs, Fins, and Bills into that rascally category of "watch out, they're not as bad as you think!"

A few teams are worse than I thought, including the Niners, Steelers, Redskins, and Rams.  I expected the Steelers to suck, and they sucked to a greater extent of suckiness than I could have imagined. Let the Roethlisberger Hot Seat Alert begin.

I feel I have a pretty good read on the league, with only a few teams baffling me.  I should start seeing some above .500 weeks pretty soon.

My best prediction this week was:  Will this be the game that Gio Bernard makes a splash onto the ROY radar and starts to threaten BenJarvus's job?  I think it will.  With two TDs and this article, it's safe to say I nailed that prediction.  My worst call was Ray Rice for 150 easy yards; he ended up with 36 yards and a fumble.

Here's the week 3 picks:

Chiefs (2-0) @ Eagles (1-1)
Predicted Line: PHI by 4.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3.5

Lost in the hype of the Andy Reid Bowl is the fact that the Chiefs won only 2 games all of last season, and are now 2-0. Even if one of those wins was against the Division II Jaguars, that's still matching last year's win total by mid-September.

As expected, Philly's defense has been horrible, ranking 30th in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed so far.  They've allowed 360 passing yards per game to RG3 and Rivers. So it stands to reason to even on a short week, KC should put up 24 or 27 points under Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles.

But it's the Chip Kelly offense that has been better than advertised, which is amazing because it was advertised so stinking much.  Philly ranks 2nd in yards and 3rd in points, and if you exclude the super-human Rodgers/Peyton offenses, they are 1st and 1st.  Furthermore, LeSean McCoy leads the NFL in rushing yards, DeSean Jackson leads the NFL in receiving yards, and Michael Vick is 1st in the all-important YPA stat.  I know it's early and those numbers aren't sustainable, but that's pretty incredible.

Defensively, the Chiefs have been very good thus far and should be a good test for Chip's offense.  But, let's keep in mind that KC allowing a microscopic 178 total yards to the Jags is more a result of the fact that they got to play the Jags.

But KC does have the makings of an elite defense, thanks to arguably the best tandem of pass rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, along with nosetackle Dontari Poe who is playing like an All Pro.  And of course they have Pro Bowlers in Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry.

It seems baffling, given that the Chiefs were a disastrous 2-14 last year and endured major busts with DE Tyson Jackson (#3 pick in 2009) and DT Glenn Dorsey (#5 pick in 2008), but this team has been brilliantly assembled through recent drafts, excluding the quarterback position of course.  Alex Smith seems to be better than expected so far.

I really want to see the Andy Reid upset, but I think Philly's offense is a tad too unstoppable.  Eagles 30-27.

Lions (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 1 

All the talk this week about how RG3 stinks is so overblown.  He has been lousy so far, but he hasn't had the chance to face the good old Lions defense yet.  Pretty sure he could turn around and chuck the ball 50 yards backwards and there would be a pass interference on Bill Bentley.  Or a personal foul on Suh.  Or a late hit on Delmas.  Bunch of idiots ...

What does stink is the Redskins defense, which is excellent for Detroit.  They can't cover Calvin, they can't stop the run, and the really can't stop the intermediate pass.  They gave up 480 freaking passing yards last week and it could have been 600 if Rodgers wanted.  So, we will be able to move the ball with ease.

Two keys:

• Get in the damn endzone. Don't settle for field goals. Especially now that we've seen what a crappy kicker David Akers is. 
• Protect Stafford.  Washington's only strength on defense is the pass rush, so Reiff and whoever plays right tackle need to have great games 

Other than that, the defense just needs to bend but not break, don't give Alfred Morris any stupid 60 yard TDs, and don't give up any 30 yard penalties (ahem, Bill Bentley).  Also, don't give up any special teams or defensive TDs, don't let Pettgirew touch the ball, and don't have Michael Spurlock return any more kicks, because I've never seen a more pathetic display of kick returning in my life.  Also, let's establish the run with Bush+Bell early and often, because Washington gave up 132 rushing yards to James Starks, who isn't any good.  Then we can use the play-action to create big play opportunities for Calvin.   Repeat: do not let Pettigrew touch the ball.  

RG3 is going to turn things around, but Washington's defense is so bad that I feel fairly safe taking the Lions, 34-30.

Chargers (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3

Two AFC teams who were severely underrated, but now after a couple solid games they may be on the verge of overrated. Let's get not carried away: neither of these are playoff teams.   They are frisky, but ultimately not great.  I like the home team but not with much confidence; let's say Titans 20-18.

Browns (0-2) @ Vikings (0-2)
Predicted Line:  MIN by 6.5
Actual Line:  MIN by 7

If it wasn't after midnight here in Dallas, I would expound on the bizarre Trent Richardson trade, but here's the quick review:  Cleveland's new GM Mike Lombardi knows the Browns aren't making the playoffs, or even coming close, until they get a real quarterback.  He knows it's a quarterback league (TM Mark Schlereth), and certainly not a running back league (with the only exception being AP).  He is smart enough to see that RBs are being drafted in the 3rd, 5th, 6th, round and making an impact. Heck, undrafted running backs are making Pro Bowls almost every season. That simply doesn't happen with quarterbacks. So Lombardi traded their most valuable asset, which happens to be a running back, for a 1st round pick, not because he wants to pick anyone with that pick, but because he'll package two 1st round picks and maybe a 2nd to move up to #1 or #2 and pick Teddy Bridgewater.  And guess what?  Every GM in rebuilding mode would rather have Bridgewater (almost Luck-esque potential) than Richardson.  So while Lombardi's name is being dragged through the dirt, especially in Cleveland, it may have actually been a genius move, IF (and only if) the Browns successfully obtain a franchise QB, and that QB ends up being good.  That's a big if, but I give Lombardi credit for taking the risk, because having absolutely no QB is just wasting everybody's time if we're being honest.  It sucks in the short-term, but Cleveland fans should be happy that they have a forward-thinking GM.

So this line is about 4 points too high because everyone is so excited to bet against the Richardson-less Browns.  And while Cleveland shouldn't be counted on to score more than 13 points, I don't exactly trust Christian Ponder to do anything, and the Browns have absolutely stuffed the run so far in two games, so maybe they can put 9 in the box and hold AP under 100 yards and keep the game close. Maybe.  I kinda think so.  Vikings 16-13.

Bucs (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)
Predicted Line:  NE by 7
Actual Line:  NE by 7

What the heck, let's give the Pats one more chance before I stop picking them. I swear this is the last time.  New England 27-17.

Texans (2-0) @ Ravens (1-1)
Predicted Line:  HOU by 1
Actual Line:  HOU by 3

With both Andre Johnson and Ray Rice questionable, I don't really know.  I'm going to assume both guys don't play, and since I think highly of Ravens backup RB Bernard Pierce, and since I think Baltimore's defense is way underrated, and since it's chronically disrespected Joe Flacco as an underdog at home, guess I will take Baltimore. This line is weird.  Ravens 23-21.

Rams (1-1) @ Cowboys (1-1)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 4.5
Actual Line:  DAL by 4

The Cowboys are probably the most difficult team for me to pick; erratic quarterbacking, sloppy play, stupid mistakes, but a ton of talent.  Oh, and bad coaching.  The Rams are pretty sound and fundamental, but lack the talent on offense to score a lot of points.  But their defense can keep this game close.  Dallas 19-17.

Cardinals (1-1) @ Saints (2-0)
Predicted Line:  NO by 8.5
Actual Line:  NO by 7

The Cards match up pretty well here. They have a quality defense that can limit Drew Brees a little bit. And their lousy offense faces a lousy Saints defense.   This could actually end up being interesting, but there's no doubt the Saints will win and be 3-0.  I'll say Saints 26-20.

Packers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)
Predicted Line:  GB by 3
Actual Line:  GB by 3

This game will test the notion that the NFL is "a quarterback league."  On one hand you have the stacked Bengals:  great defense, balanced offense, star receiver, mediocre quarterback.   Then you have the Packers:  a 3-13 team without Aaron Rodgers.  Sure, Clay Matthews is good and has long flowing hair, but is Green Bay even close to competitive without Rodgers? No.

Jordy Nelson and James Jones and Randall Cobb look brilliant right now, but send all 3 of them off to Jacksonville and they would do absolutely nothing.

I will say Packers win 27-23.

Giants (0-2) @ Panthers (0-2)
Predicted Line:   CAR by 2
Actual Line:  NYG by 1 

Sometimes the lazy media causes athletes to become synonymous with a certain word or phrase.  Sports reporters don't always excel in creativity.  With Brett Favre it was "gunslinger," with Matt Stafford, it was "unflappable."  Chip Kelly's offense is "high octane" and Jose Iglesias is "slick fielding."   But the most prevalent and most annoying right now belongs to Giants running back David Wilson, who, as everyone on TV and radio will tell you, is "in Tom Coughlin's doghouse."  Not only is that the most overused phrase of the season, it's also stupid.  He's the Giants only good running back and should be getting 20+ carries, instead of sitting on the bench while guys who don't have NFL talent play.  Maybe if Coughlin wasn't such a badass with a unforgiving doghouse, the Giants wouldn't be 0-2.

The Panthers have a plethora of problems of their own: bad secondary, no running game, lousy receivers, a coach nobody likes, and Cam Newton's immaturity and decision making problems.

It's make or break time for both teams, and the Giants have every significant edge I can think of.  If Cam Newton ever wants his career to go anywhere, and if he wants to keep pace with the great young QBs like Luck and Kaepernick, this is the game to make a statement, put the team on his back, and get the win no matter what, even if he has to run 20 times.  But, we aren't seeing that kind of Cam Newton.  We're seeing a pouty, entitled punk, which is exactly what scouts warned about.  So it only makes sense to pick the Giants, even though I'm slightly worried about how obvious it is.

Also - Tom Coughlin's brother just died, so the team will be extra motivated and emotional. Even more reason to take the Giants.  26-20.

Falcons (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1)
Predicted Line:  ATL by 1
Actual Line:  MIA by 3

This spread seems ludicrous, until you start to add up all the injuries the Falcons are dealing with. Stud linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is out. Steven Jackson, Asante Samuel, Roddy White, Kroy Biermann are all hurt.  It's pretty much just Matt Ryan and Julio Jones against Miami.

Don't look now, but Ryan Tannehill is playing pretty well, especially when he's not under pressure. He has a power arm, he is intelligent, and he is fairly accurate.  And it doesn't look like Atlanta can do anything defensively with all their rookie cornerbacks all over the place. I'm expecting Mike Wallace to bust a big play or two, and the Dolphins' below-average-offense to put up something like 2 touchdowns and 3 field goals.

Atlanta will have a hard time matching that with all their injuries and going up against a highly underrated defense.  Despite the huge QB advantage the Falcons have, Miami is the better pick.  I'm saying Dolphins 23-17.

Colts (1-1) @ 49ers (1-1)
Predicted Line:  SF by 8.5
Actual Line:  SF by 10 

With the Colts terrible defense against the pissed-off and embarrassed 49ers, this does have the makings of a blow out.  San Fran might score a touchdown on every single possession.

But, the Trent Richardson factor makes the Indy offense very intriguing.  I'm not buying into the idea that it'll take 3 or 4 weeks for Richardson to make an impact.  I think it happens this game.  San Fran's defense is great, but damnit, so is Andrew Luck, and now he has a running back who can make defenses pay if they disregard the run.

Also, I daresay that Patrick Willis isn't the All Pro he has been for the past several seasons.  Watching the game last weekend, I didn't see anything impressive from Willis the entire game.  Marshawn Lynch ran all over them, and Richardson is every bit as imposing as Lynch, and quite a bit faster.  

I'm not taking the upset, but I will take the points.  Niners 34-27.

Jags (0-2) @ Seahawks (2-0)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 17.5
Actual Line:  SEA by 19

Everyone saw what the Seattle defense can do last week against San Fran.  They made Colin Kaepernick look like a nobody.  They eliminated Frank Gore completely.  And Jacksonville's only competent offensive player (Jones-Drew) is questionable with a foot injury.  That dude never plays when he's questionable, so I think it's debatable whether or not Jacksonville will gain a single yard in this game.

Seattle could take a knee on half their offensive plays and still cover this spread.  I'll guess conservatively and say Seahawks 38-0.

Bills (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)
Predicted Line:  NYJ by 1
Actual Line:  NYJ by 3

I hate both of these teams for picking purposes. I'll take the Jets 18-16.

Bears (2-0) @ Steelers (0-2)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 3
Actual Line:  CHI by 3

Want to hear a secret? I think the Steelers are the third worst team in the NFL, behind only Jacksonville and Oakland.   Bears 23-17.

Raiders (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 20
Actual Line:  DEN by 15.5

While I have Seattle covering their huge 19 point spread, I think I will take the Raiders in this one.  The main difference is Seattle's style at home:  angry, violent, almost murderous.  They won't show any mercy.  The Broncos, on the other hand, are led by a QB who embodies class. They will get out to a big lead, run the ball, and then let Terrelle Pryor score a backdoor TD or two to cover the spread.  No need to rack up stats against this joke of a team.  At least that's how I see it.  Broncos 35-24.

Go Lions!

Week 2 Picks

Week 1 recap:
11-5 straight up
7-8-1 against the spread

Jets (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0) 
THURSDAY 
Predicted Line: NE by 16.5 
Actual Line:  NE by 13
A few things about this game:

• Pats are ridiculously lucky -- they get to open the season against two straight rookie QBs. Wonder if that's ever happened before. 
• Shane Vereen broke his wrist and is out for at least two months. Amendola's out, Gronk's out, Sudfield's questionable.  So the Pats offense is reduced to ... Edelman, Thompkins, Ridley, and Leon Washington.  This will be a huge test for Brady.  
• Jets didn't deserve to win their game against the Bucs, but then again, neither did Tampa. 
• But the real question is, how did New England manage to only beat Buffalo by a score of 23-21???    I came up with about fifteen reasons that game should have been a blowout, and the Bills almost won outright. It made no sense. But let's be honest, the outcome was never really in question, and the Pats did get the win which is all that matters to them. 

So the line in this game probably went down a few points thanks to the close game against the Bills, and to me, that makes this a value.  I was prepared to take the Pats for up to 20.  Why?

• A rookie against Belichick with only 3 days to prepare?
• Brady dominates at home.
• Geno Smith on the road.  
• Brady hates the Jets as much as any player hates any team.  
• The Jets suck.     

So I'll take the Pats in a blwoout just like I did in week one. Learning from my mistakes has never been my forte.  Pats 31-10.

Lions (1-0) @ Cardinals (0-1)
Predicted Line:  DET by 2.5
Actual Line:  DET by 2 

On one hand, the Lions played some of the most dominant football I've seen from them in years on Sunday.  Reggie Bush, the linebackers, the offensive line, and Stafford were all (for the most part) excellent. And although Calvin didn't put up big numbers, it was his presence that allowed the offense to rack up 469 yards and dominate time of possession.  He drew double teams on every single snap.  

On the other hand, it was one of the least disciplined, sloppiest, ugliest, dumbest games I've ever seen. 11 penalties, 2 very ugly turnovers, a botched field goal ... in most games, that's enough to warrant a loss. But thankfully, the Lions played the Vikings, who proved they are not a good football team.  Take away Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen, and that has the makings of an 0-16 team.  

So, there's a lot to be excited about, and a lot to be nervous about.  Coaching was awful, but tackling was great. Suh made perhaps the dirtiest play of his already filthy career, but Riley Reiff handled Allen like a stud.  Reggie Bush was phenomenal, but Brandon Pettigrew was ghastly.  Typical Lions I suppose. 

This is what I consider a trap game. Arizona shouldn't be very good; after all, they lost 11 straight games last year!  But flying across the country for a west coast game is never easy, and the Cards showed last week that their defense is to be reckoned with.  The Honey Badger looked like the Heisman candidate he used to be, not the doped-up moron he transformed into, and Patrick Peterson has already proven he's an elite shutdown corner.  Furthermore, Carson Palmer showed that an upgrade from an F- to a C- at quarterback can make a big difference. The Arizona offense is no longer worthless. 

So, how do the Lions matchup?  

First, the bad news.  Chris Houston hasn't got a prayer against Fitzgerald, which means lots of safety help ('help' being theoretical), and that means a bum like Rashard Mendenhall might be able to plod through a thin defensive front and move the chains.  Plus, with Floyd and Roberts, the Cards have other mismatches with their WRs against our very poor secondary.  Darius Slay did not look good Sunday.  Delmas never looks good unless the goal is a personal foul out of bounds.  

More bad news - Peterson is one of the few CBs in the league who can (at least attempt to) cover Calvin solo.  It may or may not work for him, but it does mean fewer double teams, which means less room for the rest of the team.  If that equates to more targets for Pettigrew, might as well just chalk up the 'L' and head home with a 1-1 record.  

Seriously, if Lions management had any balls whatsoever, they would release Pettigrew unconditionally and immediately, and just admit they made a major mistake when they drafted him.  They would be better off with Jason Hanson playing tight end. 

Now the good news - the Lions defensive line, while unstable and idiotic, is athletically one of the best in the league, and they line up against a legendarily awful offensive line that drafted guard Jonathan Cooper #7 overall and then lost him for the season with a broken leg.  The Cards O-line is hideous, and they won't be able to keep Suh and Co. from crushing Palmer's skull.  I expect at least 6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 3 tipped balls, and 2 personal foul penalties from the D-line. Minimum.  You can't draft D-linemen in the first round every year and then not expect them to annihilate the worst O-line in football.  

So Arizona has the coaching advantage (just like every team), the homefield advantage, and a few helpful matchups.  Detroit has the best player advantage (Calvin), the better QB, and the better overall roster.  In theory, Detroit should win pretty comfortably.  But intangibles all point to Arizona, specifically the part about Detroit always losing to inferior opponents and embarrassing themselves on the road. 

I can't bring myself to pick Detroit to lose to the lowly Cardinals, and since the line is so low, I'll say Lions cover by a late field goal: 30-27.  But I absolutely don't feel good about this game.  

Rams (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)
Predicted Line:  ATL by 8.5 

Actual Line:  ATL by 7 

Something tells me the Rams just might pull this one off. Their defense is really good.  Finnegan might be able to hinder Julio Jones, and Roddy is limping around.  I've gotta at least take the 7 points.  I'll go with Falcons 27-24.

Chargers (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 6.5
Actual Line:  PHI by 9

Going into last season, I had serious doubts about Robert Griffin III.  I questioned whether he should have gone #2 overall, whether he could really throw at an NFL level, and if he would be durable.  Then I watched week 1 (he lit up the Saints with a 139 QB rating) and I saw enough to be convinced.  I decided then and there not to be stubborn, but to admit I was wrong and wholeheartedly embrace RG3 the rest of the season. And he won ROY and made the playoffs, so clearly I was right to change my mind.

The point is, I learned not to stubbornly stick to what I think I know.  And this year, I went into the season doubting whether Chip Kelly could be a real NFL coach, if his Oregon offense could translate to the NFL, and whether Philly really had the personnel to really pull it off.  Then I saw week 1:  443 yards, 189 of which went to McCoy, and a pretty efficient game for Mike Vick, who ran about 60 plays out of the no-huddle.

I'm not going to be stubborn on this one.  Chip Kelly is for real.  The Eagles are legit.

Now, I still have plenty of reservations about Vick.  He's immature, selfish and possibly even psychopathic. Also, he's a turnover machine, and extremely injury prone.  But that doesn't mean he can't read secondaries and make good throws in a hurry.  He's actually a perfect fit for Kelly's offense.

Now, all that being said, this line went way too high, because people overreact to Monday night games.  The Chargers looked pretty good under Mike McCoy, and Phillip Rivers can engage in a shootout, particularly against this very bad Eagles defense.  But, Philly will start 2-0 leading into a Thursday night matchup against Andy Reid and the Chiefs.   I'll say 31-27 Eagles.

Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 9
Actual Line: BAL by 7

I know 7 points is a lot, but I'm actually thinking this is pretty good line value.  Examine the facts:

• Baltimore got shellacked on the road by Peyton Manning and now the public is way down on them. But if Dallas Clark didn't drop an open TD and if John Harbaugh had challenged Welker's non-catch and forced Denver to punt, that game would have been much different.  Baltimore wasn't as bad as the score indicated.  And even if they were, it was against Peyton Manning, so let's give them a pass. 
• Cleveland got beat up at home to the Dolphins, who manhandled the Browns O-line, which is supposed to be their strength.  Trent Richardson couldn't go anywhere because Weeden was so pathetic and the Dolphins keyed in on the run.  Seriously, how can you throw 53 passes and end up with only 289 yards?   12 quarterbacks threw fewer passes than Weeden on Sunday and gained more yards.  Twelve.   
• This game features three massive mismatches in Baltimore's favor: coaching, quarterbacking, and overall roster.  Also, homefield, and a good defensive front 7 against Trent Richardson, Cleveland's only good skill position player other than Josh Gordon, who is suspended. 
• Only one caveat in Cleveland's favor - Joe Haden will blanket Torrey Smith, and Jacoby Jones is out for 4-6 weeks, which means Flacco will need to move the ball with the likes of Brandon Stokley, Ed Dickson, Marlon Brown, and Dallas Clark.  Clark looked awful against the Broncos, but Brown looked like an emerging star.  He's a sneaky good play in fantasy.  But let's be honest, this is a Ray Rice game.  Look for him to run 30 times and and put up 150 yards easy.  

I'm taking the Ravens big, 34-13. 

Titans (1-0) @ Texans (1-0) 

Predicted Line:  HOU by 10

Actual Line: HOU by 10

I'll take about the Titans-Steelers game later, but suffice it to say, Tennessee is a little better than I thought, and Houston is a little bit worse.  So let's take the points.  Texans 27-20. 

Dolphins (1-0) @ Colts (1-0)

Predicted Line:  IND by 4.5

Actual Line:  IND by 3

I don't want to overreact, because I know the Raiders are pathetic, but Andrew Luck didn't throw an incomplete pass until there was 1 minute and 20 seconds until halftime.  At that point he was something like 12 for 12 for 127 yards.  He ranks 27th in passing yards right now, but 2nd in completion percentage, 2nd in QB rating, and also ran for 38 yards, including the game winning score.  True, Indy had no business being in a close game with Oakland, but just like New England, the outcome of the game was never really in question, and Luck did what he had to do to get the win. 

Miami was also impressive, but also against an inferior opponent.  The Dolphins D stymied the weaponless Browns, and Tannehill threw to everyone except whiny Mike Wallace, who didn't wait long to bring his diva act to Miami.  Doesn't the moron realize he was shut down by an elite cornerback?  Even I saw that coming. This week he gets Vontae Davis, so he might want to practice his angry tweets in preparation for Sunday night.    Neither team has any running game, for what that's worth.

Indy has a huge QB edge, and Miami has a much better defense.  It could be close, but I generally feel pretty good about taking the Colts this year.  27-23.  

Panthers (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 3
Actual Line:  CAR by 3

Both of these teams overperformed on Sunday despite losses.  The Panthers held the Seahawks to 12 points and stuff a great running attack, while the Bills were leading the Pats with 5 seconds to go and lost on a field goal.  The biggest surprise was EJ Manuel, who looked poised, and relaxed, and very much unlike a rookie. Perhaps he wasn't a bad 1st round pick after all?

Cam Newton, on the other hand, struggled immensely to move the ball, with a career low 125 passing yards. But let's give him a break - Seattle does have the best secondary in the NFL by a wide margin.  Against Buffalo, who is missing their two best secondary players in Byrd and Gilmore, Newton should find plenty of room to throw.  By the way, I didn't know Ted Ginn Jr. was on the Panthers.  When did that happen?

I'm very tempted to take Buffalo in the upset, but I have a pretty high opinion of Carolina's defense.  Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson are a great DE combo, and Kuechly in the middle is something of a rising star. Could be another measly game for Spiller.  Let's say Panthers, 18-13.

Redskins (0-1) @ Packers (0-1)
Predicted Line:  GB by 6.5
Actual Line: GB by 8

Green Bay certainly could win by 8+, but that's an awful lot of points to lay against a quarterback as good as RG3.  This game is screaming backdoor cover.  Packers 27-23.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 2.5
Actual Line:  KC by 3

Wow, looks like people have bought into the Chiefs way earlier than I expected.  2-14 last year, and now a 3 point favorite to a perpetually overrated team.  I mean, yeah they destroyed Jacksonville last week, but it was Jacksonville.   It's not like Dallas looked awful week one.  They didn't look sharp, but they don't deserve to be underdogs to KC, do they?

The Cowboys have the major QB advantage, the best overall player advantage (DeMarcus Ware, who overmatches a pretty good LT in Branden Albert) and an excellent secondary to take Bowe out of the game. But the Chiefs have the better coach, the rowdy crowd, and the elite RB.  If I trusted Tony Romo a little more I'd pick the Cowboys without thinking twice.  But I don't know ... something tells me both teams will be 2-0 heading into the Reid-Eagles game on Thursday.  Let's say Chiefs win 21-20.

Vikings (0-1) @ Bears (1-0)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 4.5
Actual Line:  CHI by 6

Ponder looked dreadful against the Lions last week, so I'm inclined to take the Bears.  But the Vikings have two big matchup advantages - Matt Kalil can take Julius Peppers out of the game, and Jared Allen can get to Jay Cutler, who notoriously can't get rid of the ball fast enough.  Those two matchups, and of course AP's ability to keep games close, makes me think the Vikings can at least keep it interesting.  Bears 24-20.

Saints (1-0) @ Bucs (0-1)
Predicted Line:  NO by 7
Actual Line:  NO by 3.5

Perhaps Tampa is the new Dallas - big names on paper, weak results on the field.  When I look at the names on their defensive depth chat, it makes sense to argue that they'll be able to slow down Drew Brees.   But then I see that they were beaten by Geno Smith and Kellen Winslow.  Granted, the Bucs were one stupid penalty from being 1-0, but even if they had gotten the win, they didn't play well on either side of the ball. Gosh, why do I need to talk myself into this.  The line is outrageously low.  Saints 30-16.

Jaguars (0-1) @ Raiders (0-1)
Predicted Line:  OAK by 4
Actual Line: OAK by 6

Thanks to this game, only one of these teams can go 0-16.  Which is a shame, because they both deserve it.  I guess Terrelle Pryor's 112 rushing yards was enough to inflate this line a few too far.  I'll take 6 points any day against the ridiculously bad Raiders defense.  Even Blaine Gabbert can put up points against them.   ..... right?  Or will this be a 3-0 punt-a-thon?     Who knows.  How about Jags 13-10.

Broncos (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 10
Actual Line:  DEN by 4.5

How can you possibly pick against Peyton Manning after last week?  I mean, seriously.  Is this line a joke?  Broncos 34-24.

49ers (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 3
Actual Line:  SEA by 3

With two heavyweight Super Bowl contenders in the same division, this has quickly emerged as the NFL's best rivalry of 2013. The best part is:  these teams genuinely hate each other, from the coaches to the fan bases to the random players trash-talking on Twitter.  The exception seems to be the quarterbacks, two humble guys who let their play do the talking.  And while Russell Wilson has been great, it's Kaepernick who looks like the legend in the making.

Seattle's defense is outstanding - the best in the league - and their offense is much better than the unit who scored 12 points in Carolina last week.  But San Fran has the two best players in this game - Patrick Willis and Kaep - and probably the better team in the trenches, with Justin and Aldon Smith specifically.  Not sure how Kaepernick will deal with the Seattle secondary, but I just can't bet against that guy right now.  I'm gonna take the 49ers in the upset, 23-20.

Steelers (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 6.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 7

Want to hear something beautiful?   No team began the season worse than the Pittsburgh Steelers, who not only got pounded at home by an inferior Titans team, but also lost arguably their best player - center Maurkice Pouncey - for the season with an MCL.  Take Pouncey off that O-line and they drop from an 80 to a 60.  It can now be said pretty confidently that Pittsburgh has the worse offensive line in football (excluding Arizona), which is a horrible thing when you already have no running game and a QB who loves to play chicken with pass rushers.  For all the effort Pittsburgh has put into rebuilding that O-line during the last several drafts, they are now in a terrible situation.

Replacing Pouncey will be some dude named Kelvin Beachum, a 7th round pick from 2012.  Not only has Beachum never played center prior to last week, but now he gets to line up against Geno Atkins, widely considered the best DT in the NFL right now.  That spells a nightmare for the Steelers offense.  Let's just say I'm probably not the only person checking the depth chart to see who will replace Ben Roethlisberger when he gets hurt. (Answer: Bruce Gradkowski, followed by rookie Landry Jones)

To top it off, them Stellers lost Larod Stephens-Howling, their third-down RB and kick returner, for the season, also with an MCL injury.  As a result they brought back Jonathan Dwyer, who they had just cut a week earlier.  They're waiting for LeVeon Bell to recover from a broken foot, but it may be another month before he can play.  Oh, and I should mention, Mike Wallace is long gone, and the new receivers can't seem to make a play.

I think it's safe to say the Steelers can't be counted on for more than 14 points, unless their defense scores. Which makes this seemingly crazy spread very credible.  Cincinnati may not be a juggernaut, but they have AJ Green who is probably worth 10 points of offense by himself.  Will this be the game that Gio Bernard makes a splash onto the ROY radar and starts to threaten BenJarvus's job?  I think it will.  I am liking the Bengals this week, mostly because I am hating the Steelers.   This has the makings of a 4-12 season for them.

Cincy 26-13.  


Go Lions!!

Bonus picks:

Alabama (-8) over Texas A&M
Michigan (-37) over Akron

Week One Picks

First, a quick history of what this is.

I began making NFL picks on this site back in 2009, when I wanted a place to keep track of my picks over the course of a season.  I've now picked every single game for the past 4 seasons, and am glad to say I have eclipsed 50% each year.  However, I barely stayed above .500 last year, and need to have a good 2013 to prove I am better at this than a retarded monkey flipping a coin a few hundred times.

2009 - Just picked the games straight up, went 67.3%
2010 - Straight-up was way too easy; I began picking against the spread, and went 51.7%
2011 - A career-high 54.3% ATS.  That will be hard to ever beat.
2012 - 50.4% ATS and 61.5% straight up.  Terrible start but strong finish to get above .500.

Let's begin the 2013 picks:

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos 
THURSDAY 
Predicted Spread:  DEN by 5.5
Actual Spread:  DEN by 7.5 

Baltimore has got to be one of the least respected defending Super Bowl champs of all time.  They are only being given 8.5 wins by Vegas (same as Cincinnati) and you can get +225 odds on them winning the AFC North, which really isn't a great division.  And perhaps the biggest slap in the face is starting their season on the road, because the stupid Baltimore Orioles have a home game.  Really?  Out of 162 games, the MLB couldn't figure out how to adjust the schedule so the defending football champs could begin the season at home?  What a joke.   Sorry baseball, but your season is 30 games too long, and nobody cares about the Orioles or stupid Chris Davis and his home runs.

Everyone is freaking out about the retirement of Ray Lewis and the departure of Ed Reed (two Hall of Famers, for sure), but the astute analysts realize that Baltimore's defense actually improved.  Torrey Smith thinks so.  So does Joe Flacco.  And they aren't just talking up their teammates out of some delusional empty hype (ahem, like the Lions).  They see the additions of Elvis Dumervil, Chris Canty, Michael Huff, and Daryl Smith, which is four excellent starters to replace two very old guys who were at the ends of their careers.  What they've lost in leadership and experience, they've more than made up for with talent.  That's not to mention Lardarius Webb, who is a top 5 cornerback in the league, and missed the second half of 2012 with an ACL injury.  He's back, though perhaps not 100%.

Balitmore's concern should be the offense.  Matt Birk (6-time Pro Bowl center) retired,  Anquan Boldin went to San Fran, and Dennis Pitta (61 catches, 7 TDs) is on IR.  Yeah, they still have Flacco, Rice and a good offensive line, and yes, I am a believer in both Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss as up-and-coming receivers.  But, Pitta was Flacco's security blanket in the middle of the field, and backup tight end Ed Dickson cannot replace Pitta adequately.

Denver is the best team in the league if you ask Vegas, and after going 13-3 they probably earned that distinction.  Plus, anyone who saw Denver against Baltimore in the playoffs knows Denver was the better team by far, and Baltimore got horribly lucky on a bomb.  But that's history.  The Broncos lost Dumervil (to Baltimore) because of some fiasco with a fax machine (I still can't figure out that story) and they'll also be without their two best defenders in this game (Champ Bailey has a foot injury, Von Miller is suspended).  That is certainly a big edge for Baltimore, and makes this spread seem a little too high.

But, Peyton Manning stole Wes Welker from Tom Brady, and that's all anyone cares about.  With Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Some Random Tight End, and a bunch of running backs, along with the minty new Welker, Peyton will be read to destroy everyone with precision throws and superior intelligence.  Ray Lewis may have been past his prime, and possibly a murderer, but he was the best at countering Peyton's audibles and keeping the defense ready for each play.  In this particular game, Lewis will be greatly missed, because Peyton's greatest strength has always been more mental than physical.  

I'll give Baltimore the coaching edge, but Denver's homefield advantage cancels that out and then some.  If Ray Rice can control the game and keep Peyton on the sidelines, the Ravens have a great chance.  But Denver's front 7 is very good, even without Miller, and when Denver has the ball, they'll be able to score quickly and easily.  That's not to disrespect Baltimore's defense - which, as I mentioned, is very good and extremely underrated.  But Denver's offense is superior.  Peyton has too many weapons.   Broncos win 31-23.  

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Predicted Line:  DET by 4.5
Actual Line:  DET by 5.5

Let's see ... 48 carries, 273 yards, 5.6 YPC ...  that was Peterson against the Lions last year.

And ....  17 catches, 261 yards, 15.3 per catch ... was Calvin against the Vikings.

One of my favorite prop bets this year is:   Who will have more total yards, Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson?    I didn't make a pick because I can't pick against either guy.  They combined for 4,278 yards last season.   I don't have to do any research to say confidently that no RB and WR have ever combined for more yardage in a single season.  It's history in the making.  And these guys are in the same division.  Pretty stinkin awesome.

So, as for the rest of these teams, you have a very lousy arm in Ponder, who lost the speedy Harvin and replaced him with the slower Jennings.  Chris Houston can contain Jennings for the most part, which is great, because the safeties and linebackers will be zeroed in on Peterson the entire game.  Kyle Rudolph is the one Viking that worries me, because he can outrun linebackers and outmuscle safeties.    If Ponder can get him the ball (that's a big "if"), Rudolph could kill us.  But for the most part, it's all about putting 9 guys in the box and trying to slow down AP.  With Suh and Fairley in the middle of the trench, I should feel good about our chances.  But I don't.  At all.  

While Minnesota is running like crazy, the Lions will be throwing early and often, and the biggest concern by far is Riley Reiff against Jared Allen.  That's a recipe for disaster, and gives Detroit no choice but to give Reiff help.  Not sure what that looks like - Pettigrew next to Reiff? Leshoure in the backfield? Rob Sims doing the double-team? - but it definitely throws a tangle in the Lions' gameplan.  Sadly, Stafford just doesn't have the pocket presence or internal clock to get rid of the ball quickly and accurately.  That's the best way to neutralize a guy like Jared Allen: you throw the ball before he gets to you.  We saw that Stafford a lot in 2011;  he was awesome.  But he drank a bunch of beer in the offseason or something, because in 2012 he was back to being confused and sloppy.  If he hasn't improved in the offseason, it'll be another shitty year.  

One other possible solution is Reiff being way better than we expect and shutting down Allen single-handedly.  That would be cool.  But let's not expect it.

Outside of Allen, the Vikings defense is not scary.  Their secondary sucks.  Calvin should put up 100 yards by halftime and will put a quick end to his reputation as a guy who doesn't score enough.  He'll definitely score once, probably twice, and maybe thrice.  As Minnesota tries all kinds of double and triple teams on him, it'll open up Broyles, Burleson, Shithead (Pettigrew) and I'm kinda hoping Patrick Edwards gets to play.  And, we'll certainly see about 10 dump-offs to Reggie Bush, and let's hope he turns a couple of those into 20 yard gains.  My feeling is, Bush, Bell and Leshoure each get about 7 carries, but none of them do anything on the ground.   I'd like to see the Lions trade Leshoure while he still has some semblance of value (maybe we could get a 5th rounder for him), rather than cut him prior to the '14 season.

While AP and Calvin dominate this game, it'll be up to the quarterbacks to not turn the ball over.  Stafford will throw at least twice as many passes as Ponder, but it's likely Ponder has more interceptions, which could be the main difference in the game.  The Lions need to make a statement early that they won't be losing to inferior opponents this season.  I think they'll win the opener, but I think 5.5 points is too much to ask.   Lions 28-23.

Patriots @ Bills
Predicted Line:  NE by 9.5
Actual Line:  NE by 9.5

It's never smart to bet against a double-digit home-dog, but look at the facts:
--Buffalo's starting QB will be a rookie. Not sure if that's EJ Manuel or Jeff Tuel, but either way, a rookie.
--Tom Brady is in a hurry to prove that he doesn't need Welker, Hernandez, or Gronk.
--The Patriots always destroy the Bills.   They absolutely own them.
--Buffalo's homefield advantage doesn't mean much because everybody knows they're moving to Toronto.
--New England scored 34.8 per game last year;  Buffalo scored 21.5  
--Brady has scored 52, 37, 49, 31, 34, and 38 in his last six games against Buffalo
--Buffalo's two best DBs are out (Gilmore and Byrd)
--Doug Marrone has never coached an NFL game; neither has his offensive coordinator
--Did I mention it's Tom Brady against a rookie?

So let's do it.  Pats 49-0.

Titans @ Steelers
Predicted Line:  PIT by 6.5
Actual Line:  PIT by 7 

Tennessee has always had good tackles (Roos and Stewart), but this year they added a couple of excellent guards (Levitre and Warmack) to give them one of the league's best offensive lines.  Chris Johnson could run right through the ancient Steelers, a defense that is now living solely on reputation.  But if Sonic struggles, Jake Locker will have to carry the team, and I don't see that happening.  He seems like a very confused quarterback, and if the Steelers D can still do anything, it's take advantage of unsure quarterbacks.

On the flip side, Pittsburgh's offensive line looks really bad.  Pouncey is a great center, and the right side of the line has youth and potential, but the left side is awful.  That's a bad combination for a fearless, idiotic quarterback who thinks he is immune to tacklers.  But fortunately for the Steelers, the Titans' defense is so bad, particularly in the secondary, that Ben can get away with all kinds of sloppy crap.  As they continue to morph into a pass-first team, and as they quickly move past the drama-filled Mike Wallace era, I expect Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders to both see a ton of action.

Steelers will win, but I don't think they make it look good.  17-13.

Falcons @ Saints
Predicted Line:  NO by 3
Actual Line:  NO by 3

This is clearly the game of the week in my book.  Sean Payton is back, the Saints are pissed about what happened last year, Drew Brees still thinks this is his division, and this is the best homefield advantage in football.  Atlanta, who lost a lot of talent in the offseason, has won 36 games in the last 3 regular seasons, so they are clearly doing something right and I should probably respect them more than I do.   Great coaches, great quarterbacks, lousy defenses, on turf.  Should be a ton of points, real life and fantasy.   I'll go with Saints based solely on homefield.  34-30.

Bucs @ Jets
Predicted Line:  TB by 3
Actual Line:  TB by 3

The Revis Bowl comes early!   Too bad the Jets don't have any receivers for him to match up against ...

But it will be fun to see how Geno Smith fares in his first game.  Tampa's defense has a lot of big-name talent, though not a lot of pass-rushing power and a weakened run defense after losing Michael Bennett to Seattle.  The Jets - who America agrees are the worst team ever - actually have a good offensive line, including an All Pro center, and should be able to run the ball with some success.  They'll have to if they want to keep Geno Smith from making a fool of himself.

But defensively, the Jets are not strong.  They still have the big mouth Rex Ryan calling the shots, and they still have a couple good players in Cromartie, David Harris, and Wilkerson.  But they lost a ton when Revis left.  Young CB Dee Milliner will be a stud someday, but he's a long way from replacing Revis.  I don't see any way the Jets can stop Doug Martin without putting 9 in the box and letting Josh Freeman pick them apart.   Could be a long day for the Jets' defense.  Bucs 34-13.

Chiefs @ Jaguars
Predicted Line:  Pick Em
Actual Line:  KC by 3.5

I don't like the prospect of picking the Chiefs on the road, but I can't side with Blaine Gabbert.  This will be a battle of running backs, and KC has the better defense by far.  Let's say Chiefs 16-10.

Bengals @ Bears
Predicted Line:  CHI by 3
Actual Line:  CHI by 3

There's a lot going on in this matchup, I don't know where to begin.

Both QBs have limited skills (Dalton's limitations are physical, Cutler's are mental) but both have excellent options to work with, including dominant receivers and shifty running backs who can catch the ball.  Cincy has the better O-line by far, but Chicago has the better defense.  Probably the biggest difference is the secondaries; Chicago's is far better and will do a decent job of slowing down AJ Green. Maybe.

The key is, Andy Dalton is 1-11 against playoff teams, and while Chicago may not be a playoff team, they're close. Dalton just flat-out stinks against good defenses.  Let's go with the Bears, 27-23.

Dolphins @ Browns
Predicted Line:  Pick Em
Actual Line:  CLE by 1

The more I read about Cleveland, the more I become almost convinced that they'll be competitive this year. Improved D-line, improved O-line, studs in Haden and Richardson.  I have even heard rumors that Branden Weeden is looking functional under the tutelage of Norv Turner.  It's going to take a couple weeks to convince me.

Miami is the better team, but the matchups bode strongly in Cleveland's favor.  Mike Wallace will be neutralized by Haden, and stud OLB Cameron Wake will be matched up against even bigger stud LT Joe Thomas.  Cleveland has a big edge in those two matchups, and as a result the game should stay competitive and low-scoring.  Which means, Trent Richardson is probably the difference maker.  Let's take the Browns I guess.  17-14.

Seahawks @ Panthers
Predicted Line:  SEA by 3.5
Actual Line:  SEA by 3

It's strength against strength, as the highly improved Panthers' front 7 goes up against Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks excellent O-line.   Seattle has no downfield threats (unless you count Golden tate) and Carolina doesn't have much of a secondary.  On the flip side, Carolina's offense might not be able to move the ball at all, with Richard Sherman shutting down Steve Smith and the psychotically good Seattle secondary eliminating all of Newton's other weapons.  I don't think much of DeAngelo Williams anymore.  Plus, Seattle can stuff the run.  Their defense is just way too good.   Both of these QBs are notorious for making crazy plays at crazy times and keeping games close, but the Seattle defense is a huge edge.  I like the Seahawks to cover, 20-14.

Raiders @ Colts
Predicted Line:  IND by 9.5
Actual Line:  IND by 10

I've taken too many favorites and probably should lay the points here, but I keep hearing that Oakland has one of the worst rosters in the history of the NFL.  Apparently they have guys starting on both sides of the ball that wouldn't even make the roster of other teams.  I believe it; they are the Raiders, and they do define ineptitude.  Plus, how much do I love Andrew Luck.  Way too much.  Screw it - Colts 28-10.

Cardinals @ Rams
Predicted Line:  STL by 4.5
Actual Line:  STL by 4.5

The Rams are better, but the Cards match up well.  St. Louis doesn't have anyone who can stop Fitzgerald, while Cards' CB Patrick Peterson can take away Sam Bradford's only downfield option in Chris Givens.  Neither team has a running game, except for the Rams having Jake Long, which could turn into some decent plays for Richardson and/or Pead.  The key to the game though is the Rams good pass rush against the Cardinals atrocious offensive line.  Carson Palmer running for his life has never worked out great.  Let's go Rams 24-20.

Packers @ 49ers
Predicted Line:  SF by 4.5
Actual Line:  SF by 4.5

Yeah I could go on and on about how awesome Rodgers and Kaepernick are, but let's just say it's a field-goal game and I like the Packers by 3.

Giants @ Cowboys
Predicted Line:  DAL by 2.5
Actual Line:  DAL by 3.5

Another toss-up which could be a field goal game.  I'll take the points and say Cowboys 30-27 in OT.

Eagles @ Redskins
MONDAY 
Predicted Line:  WAS by 6.5
Actual Line:  WAS by 3.5

I hear a lot of people calling for the Philly upset, but I'm leaning the other way.  I'm thinking RG3 shows the world that he's 100% and wins this game by double digits.  Philly's defense is gruesome; remember, their secondary has 4 new starters, none of whom are good.  I'm going to go ahead and say Redskins get up 21-0 early and then Alfred Morris takes over.  Skins end up winning 31-14.

Texans @ Chargers
MONDAY
Predicted Line:  HOU by 4.5
Actual Line:  HOU by 4

Just read a pretty convincing piece by Bill Barnwell explaining why the Chargers aren't as bad as everyone thinks they are.  I also keep hearing that Antonio Gates is finally, really, actually healthy. I don't believe the part about Gates, but I am almost convinced about the Chargers.  Maybe now that Norv Turner is gone, they can finally regroup and stop shooting themselves in the foot.  They probably deserve more respect than being 4 point underdogs at home to Matt Schaub.  Plus, doesn't Arian Foster have a back injury?  Let's say Texans 26-24.


Go Lions.

Over/Unders

My predictions for the 2013 NFL season. All spreads taken from Bovada prior to week 1.

Let's begin with the ten team over/unders that I feel most strongly about: 

Atlanta Falcons
UNDER 10 wins
Why:  Three good teams in their division, defense got a lot worse.
Bet:  $20
Odds: -150

Baltimore Ravens
OVER 8.5 wins
Why:  They have an easy schedule, an elite coach, and this line is 1.5 wins too low in overreaction to Ray Lewis's retirement.  Their defense actually improved.
Bet:  $40
Odds:  -115

Cincinnati Bengals
UNDER 8.5 wins
Why:  On what planet are the Bengals and Ravens considered equal????
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +130

Cleveland Browns
UNDER 6 wins
Why:  Lack of talent, especially at quarterback.
Bet:  $45
Odds:  +145

Detroit Lions
UNDER 8 wins
Why:  Offensive line, secondary, coaching, lack of depth everywhere, and Stafford's intangibles.
Bet:  $25
Odds:  EVEN

Green Bay Packers
OVER 10.5 wins
Why:  Best QB in the league in his prime.  All he has to do is stay healthy and they'll win 11 or more.
Bet:  $40
Odds:  -110

Jacksonville Jaguars
UNDER 5 wins
Why:  Took the under (5.5) last year, and will keep doing it until they get rid of Gabbert.  The guy is a joke.
Bet:  $35
Odds:  -130  

New England Patriots
OVER 10.5 wins
Why:  I have quite a bit of faith in Tom Brady.
Bet:  $45
Odds:  +120

New Orleans Saints
OVER 9 wins
Why:  Ditto for Drew Brees.
Bet:  $20
Odds:  -150

Oakland Raiders
UNDER 5.5 wins
Why:  Would bet the under at 2.5 wins, even despite these crazy odds.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -200

And here are some team prop bets.  These aren't necessarily indicative of what I think will actually happen (for example, Miami making the playoffs), but rather just based on whether or not I like the value presented by the odds.

Will Atlanta make the playoffs?
Pick:  NO
Bet:  $25
Odds:  +135

Will Baltimore make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $20
Odds:  -105

Will Indianapolis make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $30
Odds:  +145

Will Miami make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $20
Odds:  +200

Will New Orleans make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $30
Odds:  -150

Will Oakland make the playoffs?
Pick:  NO
Bet:  $20
Odds:  -2000

Will Tampa Bay make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +275

Will Washington make the playoffs?
Pick:  YES
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +140

New Orleans wins the Super Bowl.
Bet:  $20
Odds:  +1800

Green Bay wins the Super Bowl.
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +1200

New England wins the Super Bowl.
Bet: $25
Odds:  +1000

Indianapolis wins the AFC South.
Bet:  $35
Odds:  +240

Baltimore wins the AFC North.
Bet:  $50
Odds:  +225

Green Bay wins the NFC North.
Bet:  $40
Odds:  -140

New Orleans wins the NFC South.
Bet:  $30
Odds:  +170

St. Louis wins the NFC West.
Bet:  $15
Odds:  +500

Calgary Stampeders win the CFL Grey Cup.
Bet:  $10
Odds:  +300

Some player prop bets: 

NFL MVP:
-Aaron Rodgers, $30, +650
-Andrew Luck, $15, +2500
-Cam Newton, $15, +3300
-Josh Freeman, $5, +7500

Most Passing yards:
-Matt Ryan, $10, +1200
-Andrew Luck, $20, +1800

Most Rushing yards:
-Jamaal Charles, $20, +1400

Offensive rookie of the year:
-Gio Bernard, $45, +800

Defensive rookie of the year:
-Dion Jordan, $10, +2000
-Honey Badger, $10, +1000
-Alec Ogeltree, $10, +1000

Now, some player over/unders. I'll do 1 for each NFL team, at $20 each, unless otherwise indicated. All of these have -115 odds.

Arizona -- Rashard Mendenhall, UNDER 750.5 rushing yards

Atlanta -- Osi Umenyiora, UNDER 8.5 sacks
*change this one to $40.  No way this is happening.

Baltimore -- Ray Rice, OVER 1100 rushing yards

Buffalo -- Steve Johnson, OVER 6.5 receiving TDs

Carolina -- Greg Hardy, OVER 8 sacks.  Way over. Make it $40.

Chicago -- Brandon Marshall, UNDER 102.5 receptions

Cincinnati -- Andy Dalton, OVER 15.5 interceptions

Cleveland -- Trent Richardson, OVER 9.5 rushing TDs

Dallas -- Tony Romo, OVER 4400 passing yards

Denver -- Wes Welker, UNDER 90.5 receptions

Detroit -- Calvin Johnson, OVER 1450 receiving yards, OVER 10 receiving TDs, and OVER 100.5 receptions.  That's three OVERs for Calvin at $20 each.

Green Bay -- Aaron Rodgers, OVER 38.5 passing TDs

Houston -- JJ Watt, UNDER 15.5 sacks.  That's way too ambitious.  Make this one $40.

Indianapolis -- Andrew Luck, OVER 250 rushing yards

Jacksonville -- Blaine Gabbert, UNDER 10.5 games started as QB

Kansas City -- Dwayne Bowe, UNDER 1000 receiving yards

Miami -- Ryan Tannehill, OVER 14.5 interceptions

Minnesota -- Adrian Peterson, OVER 11.5 rushing TDs

New England -- Danny Amendola, UNDER 950 receiving yards

New Orleans -- Drew Brees, OVER 4700 passing yards

NY Giants -- Hakeem Nicks, OVER 5.5 receiving TDs

NY Jets -- Dee Milliner, OVER 2.5 interceptions

Oakland -- Denarius Moore, UNDER 750 receiving yards

Philadelphia -- Michael Vick, UNDER 3200 passing yards.  Make it $40.  Pretty sure he'll get hurt or benched.

Pittsburgh -- Ben Roethlisberger, OVER 12.5 interceptions.  Let's also make this one $40.

San Diego -- Ryan Matthews, UNDER 900.5 rushing yards

San Francisco -- Colin Kaepernick, OVER 550 rushing yards

Seattle -- Marshawn Lynch, OVER 10 rushing TDs

St. Louis -- Tavon Austin, UNDER 75.5 receptions

Tampa Bay -- Doug Martin, UNDER 1200.5 rushing yards

Tennessee -- Jake Locker, OVER 13.5 interceptions

Washington -- Robert Griffin III, OVER 14.5 games started


Lastly, a few general prop bets about the season:

Who will be the first head coach fired during the 2013 season?
-Mike Munchak, $25, +500
(The Titans' early schedule is brutal; Munchak will be axed at 2-8)

Will any quarterback record 1000 or more rushing yards during 2013 season?
-YES, $35, +200
(Between Kaepernick, Newton, RG3 and Wilson, it could happen 4 times)

Will any team go 0-16 in the 2013 regular season?
-YES, $20, +2000
(Both the Raiders and Jaguars are strong contenders)

Who will have more sacks, Clay Matthews or Von Miller?
-Miller, $40, -135

Who will have more rushing yards, Ray Rice or CJ Spiller?
-Rice, $30, +155

Who will have more passing yards, Matt Ryan or Tony Romo?
-Ryan, $30, +115

Who will have more receiving yards, AJ Green or Andre Johnson?
-Green, $40, +105


That's it -- a total of 77 bets for a total of $2,000.   Good thing it's not real money.


And just for the heck of it, let's put two hundred on the Tigers winning the World Series at +475.


Go Lions.